震损建筑压埋人员评估模型研究

Research on assessment model of buried personnel in earthquake-damaged buildings

摘要

准确评估震损建筑中压埋人员数量及空间分布是提升震后应急救援效率的关键，其评估过程主要包含三大核心环节:建筑物倒塌率预测、人员在室率预测、压埋人员数量及分布评估。针对现有评估模型未明确建筑服役时间对建筑抗倒塌能力的影响、未充分考虑在室率的时空动态差异等问题，本研究构建了震损建筑中压埋人员数量及分布综合评估模型:采用贝叶斯网络(Bayesian network，BN)与模糊层次分析法(fuzzy analytic hierarchy process，FAHP)对比分析，构建建筑物倒塌概率预测模型；融合建筑功能、时段、地理分区特征，构建考虑多因素的在室率统计分析模型；最终输出震损建筑压埋人员数量与空间分布结果。为验证模型，构建昆明东川区8.0级地震情景，结果显示压埋人员总数、高风险建筑类型及空间分布与相关研究基本一致(偏差≤7%)。

Abstract

Accurately assessing the number and spatial distribution of buried personnel in earthquake damaged buildings is key to improving the efficiency of post-earthquake emergency rescue efforts. This assessment process primarily consists of three core components: predicting building collapse rates, estimating the occupancy rate, and evaluating the number and distribution of buried individuals. Addressing issues with existing assessment models, such as not clarifying the impact of a building’s service life on its collapse resistance and not fully accounting for spatiotemporal dynamic differences in occupancy rates, this study developed a comprehensive assessment model for the number and distribution of people buried in earthquake damaged buildings: By conducting a comparative analysis of Bayesian networks (BN) and the fuzzy analytic hierarchy process (FAHP), a model for predicting building collapse probability was constructed; by integrating building function, time period, and geographic zone characteristics, a statistical analysis model for occupancy rates accounting for multiple factors was developed; finally, the model outputs the number and spatial distribution of buried personnel in earthquake damaged buildings. To validate the model, a simulation of the 8.0 magnitude earthquake in Dongchuan District, Kunming, was conducted. The results show that the total number of buried people, the types of high risk buildings, and their spatial distribution are generally consistent with relevant studies (deviation≤7%).

关键词

震后压埋人员 / 建筑倒塌率 / 贝叶斯网络 / 模糊层次分析法 / 人员在室率 / 地震情景评估

Key words

post-earthquake buried personnel / building collapse rate / Bayesian network / fuzzy analytic hierarchy process / indoor occupancy rate / seismic scenario assessment

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基金资助

中国地震局工程力学研究所基本科研业务费专项(2026B12)

国家自然科学基金地震科学联合基金重点项目(U2239252)

国家自然科学基金面上项目(52279128)