融合多源设备易损性数据的变电站系统震后功能评估方法

Post-earthquake functional assessment method for substation systems integrating multi-source equipment fragility data

摘要

由变压器以及各设备组成的变电站系统是电力系统稳定运行的核心，在地震中通常是该系统的薄弱环节，其功能对城市震后功能恢复和应急救援能力具有显著影响。针对现有变电站主要电气设备多源易损性数据形式繁杂、离散性大的问题，提出了一种电气设备易损性数据的整合和标准化处理方法；在此基础上，基于贝叶斯网络构建了可以考虑设备冗余性的变电站系统震后功能评估模型；以我国典型的220kV变电站系统为例，进行了变电站系统的震后功能评估，验证了所提方法的有效性和适用性，并从功能易损性曲线的角度对比分析了考虑设备冗余性和电气设备易损性参数选择对变电站震后功能评估结果的影响。研究成果可为变电站系统的抗震设计和震后应急救援提供科学依据。

Abstract

Substation systems, composed of transformers and various equipment, are the core of the stable operation of power systems; however, they are typically the vulnerable links of the system during earthquakes, and their functionality has a significant impact on urban post-earthquake functional recovery and emergency rescue capabilities. Addressing the issues of complex formats and high discreteness associated with existing multi-source fragility data of primary electrical equipment in substations, this paper proposes a method for the integration and standardization of electrical equipment fragility data. On this basis, a post-earthquake functional assessment model for substation systems is constructed based on Bayesian networks, which is capable of considering equipment redundancy. Finally, taking a typical 220kV substation system in China as a case study, a post-earthquake functional assessment of the substation system is conducted to verify the effectiveness and applicability of the proposed method; furthermore, the influences of considering equipment redundancy and the selection of fragility parameters for electrical equipment on the assessment results are comparatively analyzed from the perspective of functional fragility curves. The research can provide a scientific basis for the seismic design and post-earthquake emergency rescue of substation systems.

关键词

变电站系统 / 地震易损性 / 贝叶斯网络 / 电气设备 / 震后功能评估

Key words

substation system / seismic fragility / Bayesian network / electrical equipment / post-earthquake functional assessment

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基金资助

国家重点研发计划课题(2023YFC3805102)

中国地震局工程力学研究所基本科研业务费专项资助项目(2024B10)