低碳城市与创新型城市试点的绿色低碳转型效果对比及协同研究

A Comparative Study on the Green and Low-Carbon Transformation Effect of Low-Carbon City and Innovative City Pilot and Their Synergistic Effect

摘要

为识别及对比低碳城市试点、创新型城市试点单试点及双试点的绿色低碳转型效果,本文基于2006—2023年282个城市面板数据,将两类试点统一纳入分析框架,采用多期DID(Difference-In-Difference)模型开展实证研究.研究发现,单试点与双试点均能有效推动城市绿色低碳转型,政策效应排序为:双试点>创新型城市试点>低碳城市试点.机制检验表明:双试点通过产业结构高级化、绿色创新效应、市场化进程3条路径实现协同,但未通过产业结构整体升级达成协同;就单试点对比而言,低碳试点在产业结构整体升级上作用更优,创新型试点在产业结构高级化、绿色创新与市场化进程上更优.政府干预对两类试点均存在负向调节作用,低碳试点受负向调节影响更强,双试点的叠加负向调节效应最强.异质性分析表明:双试点在高污染与低污染城市、非资源型城市及胡焕庸线两侧均体现叠加协同效应;单试点中,低碳试点更适配高污染、资源型及胡焕庸线西侧城市,创新型试点在低污染、胡焕庸线东侧城市效果更优.最后从因地制宜施策、统筹源头与末端治理、减少政府过度干预、构建气候变化自主知识体系等方面提出政策建议.

Abstract

To identify and compare the green and low-carbon transformation effect of the low-carbon city pilot,the innovative city pilot and the dual pilot,this paper adopts panel data of 282 Chinese cities from 2006 to 2023 and incorporates the two types of pilots into a unified analytical framework.A multi-period Difference-In-Differences (DID) model is employed for empirical research.The results show that both single pilot and dual pilot can effectively promote urban green and low-carbon transformation,and the policy effect is ranked as:dual pilot > innovative city pilot > low-carbon city pilot.Mechanism tests indicate that dual pilot achieves synergy through three paths:industrial structure advancement,green innovation effect,and marketization process,while no synergistic effect is realized via the overall upgrading of industrial structure.In terms of the comparison between two pilots,the low-carbon pilot performs better in the overall upgrading of industrial structure,whereas the innovative city pilot has superior effect in industrial structure advancement,green innovation and marketization process.Government intervention exerts a negative moderating effect on both types.The low-carbon pilot is more strongly affected by such negative moderation,and the dual pilot presents the strongest superimposed negative moderating effect.Heterogeneity analysis reveals that the dual pilot shows superimposed synergistic effect in both high-pollution and low-pollution cities,non-resource-based cities,and cities on both sides of the Hu Line.In the case of the single pilot,the low-carbon pilot is more applicable to high-pollution cities,resource-based cities and cities on the west side of the Hu Line,while the innovative city pilot achieves better performance in low-pollution cities and cities on the east side of the Hu Line.Finally,policy implications are proposed from the perspectives of adopting tailored policies in light of local conditions,coordinating source control and end-of-pipe governance,reducing excessive government intervention,and constructing an independent knowledge system for climate change.

关键词

低碳城市 / 创新型城市 / 双试点协同 / 绿色低碳转型

Key words

low-carbon city / innovative city / dual pilot synergy / green and low-carbon transformation effect

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基金资助

国家自然科学基金项目(71964019)