“无废城市”试点政策对医疗废物产生量的影响——基于我国35个大中城市的分析

The impact of the zero-waste city pilot policy on medical waste generation: an analysis of 35 large and medium-sized cities in China

摘要

文章基于2013—2022年动态面板数据，以2019年生态环境部发布的首批“无废城市”建设试点名单中北京、天津、深圳以及重庆为处理组，其余城市作为控制组，采用合成控制法评估“无废城市”试点政策对医疗废物产生量的影响。研究发现，处理组4个试点城市中仅北京的“无废城市”试点政策效应显著，人均医疗废物产生量相较于未实施试点的合成对照组城市平均每年减少9.22吨/万人，降幅为18.7%。这可能得益于专项资金支持、全过程闭环监管体系的构建以及广泛的社会动员等，其他城市可参考借鉴，有效推动“无废城市”的建设。

Abstract

The study aims to assess the impact of the“zero-waste city”pilot policy on medical waste generation by employing the synthetic control method based on dynamic panel data from 35 large and medium-sized Chinese cities between 2013 and 2022. The study uses Beijing，Tianjin，Shenzhen，and Chongqing，four cities selected in the first batch of the zero-waste city pilot program released by the Ministry of Ecology and Environment in 2019，as the treatment group，with the remaining cities serving as the control group. Results indicate that among the four pilot cities，only Beijing achieved a statistically significant reduction in per capita medical waste generation，averaging 9.22 tons less per 10 000 people annually compared to its synthetic control group，representing an 18.7% decrease. This outcome may be attributed to dedicated financial support，the establishment of a closed-loop，full-process supervision system，and extensive social mobilization. These findings suggest that other cities can draw valuable lessons from Beijing’s experience to advance their own zero-waste city initiatives.

关键词

医疗废物 / 大中城市 / “无废城市”试点政策 / 合成控制法

Key words

medical waste / large and medium-sized cities / zero-waste city pilot policy / synthetic control method

参考文献

[1] 赵慈, 宋晓聪, 矫云阳, 等. 我国固体废物污染防治战略路径研析[J]. 环境保护, 2021, 49(24):52-55

[2] HOU Y H, JIA L L, MA W T, et al. Analysing the factors affecting medical waste generation in China[J]. Sustain Chem Pharm, 2023, 32:100975

[3] ILYAS S, SRIVASTAVA R R, KIM H. Disinfection technology and strategies for COVID—19 hospital and biomedical waste management[J]. Sci Total Environ, 2020, 749:141652

[4] DAS A K, ISLAM M N, BILLAH M M, et al. COVID—19 pandemic and healthcare solid waste management strategy—A mini—review[J]. Sci Total Environ, 2021, 778:146220

[5] 季洪, 胡万进, 王长青, 等. 2016—2018 年南京市基层医疗机构医疗废物处置工作调查分析[J]. 南京医科大学学报（社会科学版）, 2020, 20(6):579-583

[6] DUAN Z Y, LEE S, LEE G. Evaluation of the effect of a low—carbon green city policy on carbon abatement in South Korea：a city—level analysis based on PSM—DID and LSA models[J]. Ecol Indic, 2024, 158:111369

[7] LIU M Y, CHEN L P, SHENG X R, et al. Zero—waste city pilot and urban green and low—carbon transformation：quasi — experimental evidence from China[J]. Resour Conserv Recycl, 2024, 206:107625

[8] 柴尚蕾, 周倩倩, 魏伟, 等. “无废城市”建设试点的企业绿色创新效应[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2025, 35(4):144-156

[9] 刘跃廷, 张强, 原晓红, 等. 重庆市“无废城市”建设前后碳减排潜力分析[J]. 环境科学, 2025, 46(1):88-99

[10] CHEN L F, WANG K F. The spatial spillover effect of low—carbon city pilot scheme on green efficiency in China’s cities：evidence from a quasi — natural experiment[J]. Energy Econ, 2022, 110(C):106018

[11] BEN — MICHAEL E, FELLER A, ROTHSTEIN J. The augmented synthetic control method[J]. J Am Stat Assoc, 2021, 116(536):1789-1803

[12] COLE M A, ELLIOTT R J R, LIU B W. The impact of the Wuhan COVID-19 lockdown on air pollution and health：a machine learning and augmented synthetic control approach[J]. Environ Resour Econ, 2020, 76(4):553-580

[13] 陈煦江, 姜珊, 何凌霄. “无废城市”试点政策对企业绿色创新的影响[J]. 华东经济管理, 2024, 38(2):42-52

[14] BI S H, DU J X, YAN Z J, et al. Can“zero waste city”policy promote green technology? Evidence from econometrics and machine learning[J]. J Environ Manag, 2024, 370:122895

[15] HAN Y S, LIU J L, XU H. A comprehensive assessment of the performance of China’s provincial zero—waste cities and impact factor diagnosis[J]. Environ Impact Assess Rev, 2022, 95:106778

[16] 赵曦, 吴姗姗, 陆克定. “无废城市”固体废物综合处理产业园建设水平评价指标体系[J]. 环境工程, 2021, 39(2):136-140

[17] ROMANO G, FERREIRA D C, MARQUES R C, et al. Waste services’performance assessment：The case of Tuscany，Italy[J]. Waste Manag, 2020, 118:573-584

[18] 左季季, 王敬宇. 长期护理保险对自付医疗费用的影响[J]. 南京医科大学学报（社会科学版）, 2023, 23(3):217-222

[19] 陈志超, 徐金菊, 葛成志, 等. 免费用药对2型糖尿病患者随访效果的影响——基于倾向得分匹配（PSM）的实证研究[J]. 南京医科大学学报（社会科学版）, 2024, 24(4):399-405

[20] ABADIE A, GARDEAZABAL J. The economic costs of conflict：a case study of the Basque country[J]. Am Econ Rev, 2003, 93(1):113-132

[21] ABADIE A, DIAMOND A, HAINMUELLER J. Synthetic control methods for comparative case studies：estimating the effect of California’s tobacco control program[J]. J Am Stat Assoc, 2010, 105(490):493-505

[22] 郝枫, 化丽娜, 张圆. 基于合成控制法的健康城市试点政策效应评估[J]. 城市问题, 2020(5):71-80

[23] 吕国营, 刘文军. 健康城市试点政策能否降低中老年人跌倒风险?——基于CHARLS 数据的实证分析[J]. 人口与发展, 2024, 30(5):27-37

[24] 鲁锦涛, 樊丽花. “无废城市”试点政策对城市能源强度的影响研究[J]. 科学决策, 2025(10):25-47

[25] 董梅. 低碳城市试点政策的工业污染物净减排效应——基于合成控制法[J]. 北京理工大学学报（社会科学版）, 2021, 23(5):16-30

[26] 魏诗晴, 凃敏, 赖晓全, 等. 我国各类医疗机构部分医疗废物分类处置现状[J]. 中国感染控制杂志, 2021, 20(9):782-787

[27] DEVEBAKAN N, GASIM N, DURMUS A, et al. Bayesian model averaging and augmented autoregressive distributed lag approach for modeling hospital waste amount. Evidence from Dokuz Eylul University hospital in Turkiye[J]. Clean Waste Syst, 2025, 11:100302

[28] 张俊艳, 雷玲, 高文. “三权”下放改革试点政策是否促进了科研院所专利技术转移?——基于合成控制法的分析[J]. 科技管理研究, 2022, 42(4):46-52

基金资助

国家自然科学基金青年基金“面向重大传染病的医疗废物安全处置风险评价研究”(72301006)

安徽省实验室开放课题“面向智慧医疗的医疗废物全过程智能管控系统技术研究”(PA2024GDSK0104)