明清时期中国沿海地区台风灾害的时空特征^*

Spatio-temporal characteristics of typhoon disasters in China’s coastal areas during Ming and Qing Dynasties

摘要

延长器测时代之前的台风序列,可为更长时间尺度的气候研究提供数据支持。基于历史文献,分区域重建了1368—1911年影响中国沿海地区的台风活动共1447次,借助小波分析、GIS空间分析等方法对其时空特征进行分析,并使用降水、干湿等序列对重建结果的可靠性进行验证。结果表明: (1)明清时期华北、华东、华南入境台风总数分别为157、596、853次,影响华北沿海的台风大多也会影响华东沿海,而同次台风入境华东与华南沿海的情况则较少。(2)重建台风与现代造成8级及以上风的热带气旋的阴历月际分布特征大致相似,华北沿海台风高发期为6、7月份,华东为6—8月份、华南为5—9月份。(3)在1570—1590年、1660年代、1850年代、1890年代沿海各地区的台风活动均十分频繁,而在1460年代、1560年代、1700年代、1760年代、1780年代则相对平静。(4)128 a周期尺度下的小波分析显示,明清时期华北沿海台风活动的第一、第二、第三主周期分别123 yr、86 yr、10 yr,华东沿海为122 yr、85 yr、42 yr,华南沿海为73 yr、116 yr、40 yr,明清时期整个中国沿海地区为122 yr、75 yr、42 yr。(5)明清时期台风灾害集中分布于临海的平原地带,且呈现出由南向北、由临海地区向内陆显著减弱的趋势,华北沿海台风灾害主要分布于胶东、辽东半岛、渤海湾沿岸,除临海地区外海河平原东南部地区台风灾害也相对明显。(6)明清时期沿海各区域台风序列与其相对应区域的降水序列均具有中等程度的相关性。

Abstract

Extending the typhoon sequence before the instrumental era can provide data support for longer time scale climate research. Utilizing historical documents,this paper has reconstructed a total of 1447 typhoon events that affected the coastal areas of China from 1368 to 1911,categorized by subregion. This study employs wavelet analysis,GIS spatial analysis,and other methods to analyze the spatio-temporal characteristics of these events,verifying the reconstruction’s reliability through precipitation and dry/wet sequences. The results show that: (1)During the Ming and Qing Dynasties,the total number of incoming typhoons in North China,East China,and South China was 157,596,and 853,respectively. Most typhoons impacting North China’s coast also affected East China’s coast,with fewer typhoons simultaneously entering East and South China. (2)The monthly distribution of reconstructed typhoons closely mirrors that of modern tropical cyclones,which cause winds of magnitude eight or higher. Typhoons are most frequent along North China’s coast in June and July;in East China,during June,July,and August;and in South China,from May through September. (3)Typhoon activities in various coastal areas were very frequent during the 1570-1590,1660,1850,and 1890's,while during the 1460's,1560's,1700's,1760's,and 1780's,were relatively calm. (4)Wavelet analysis,based on a 128 yr cycle,shows the first,second,and third main periods of typhoon activity along the North China coast during the Ming and Qing Dynasties were 123 yr,86 yr,and 10 yr,respectively,while those along East China coast were 122 yr,85 yr,and 42 yr,while those along the South China coast were 73 yr,116 yr,and 40 yr,respectively. The first,second,and third main periods of typhoon activity for the entire coastal area of China during the Ming and Qing Dynasties was 122 yr,75 yr,and 42 yr. (5)Throughout the Ming and Qing Dynasties,typhoon disasters were primarily concentrated in coastal plains,and showed a significant trend of weakening from south to north and from coastal areas to inland. In North China,typhoon impacts were predominantly observed on the Jiaodong and Liaodong peninsulas and around Bohai Bay. Beyond these coastal regions,the southeast Haihe Plain also experienced notable typhoon effects. (6)During the Ming and Qing Dynasties,there was a moderate correlation between typhoon sequences and precipitation patterns in their respective coastal regions.

关键词

台风 / 明清时期 / 中国沿海地区 / 时空特征

Key words

typhoon / Ming and Qing Dynasties / China’s coastal areas; / spatio-temporal characteristics

基金资助

*国家自然科学基金项目(编号: 41271410,41071253)资助