多斑块两阶段羊布鲁氏菌病模型的阈值动力学与防控策略

Threshold dynamics and control strategies of a multi-patch two-stage brucellosis model in sheep

摘要

【目的】本研究旨在构建多斑块-两阶段羊布鲁氏菌病传播动力学模型，评估疫苗接种、消毒及隔离3种措施对布鲁氏菌病的控制效果。【方法】利用Lyapunov函数分析模型的全局动力学行为，并采用目标再生数方法比较不同控制措施的效果。【结果】理论分析和数值模拟表明，疫苗接种效果最佳，可提升羊群整体免疫水平，降低个体易感性；环境消毒效果次之，可有效降低环境中布鲁氏菌浓度，切断传播链；隔离效果最弱，其有效性高度依赖于对感染羊的及时识别与管理。成年羊对疫苗的敏感性高于羔羊，这可能与免疫系统更成熟有关。两个斑块综合控制效果优于对单一斑块控制。当两个斑块规模比超过5.9时，按年龄分配疫苗接种成本更低；反之，按斑块比例分配。【结论】疫苗接种是控制羊布鲁氏菌病最有效的干预措施，综合控制策略效果更优。基于斑块规模比例建立的疫苗分配策略，为布鲁氏菌病精准、经济的防控提供了重要参考依据。

Abstract

[Objective] This study aimed to construct a multi-patch, two-stage transmission dynamics brucellosis model in sheep and evaluated the control effects of three intervention measures-vaccination, disinfection, and isolation on brucellosis. [Method] The global dynamical behavior of the model was analyzed using Lyapunov function, and the effectiveness of different control measures was compared via the target reproduction numbers approach. [Result] Theoretical analysis and numerical simulations indicate that vaccination was the most effective measure, enhancing herd immunity and reducing individual susceptibility. Environmental disinfection ranked second, effectively lowering the concentration of Brucella in the environment and interrupting the transmission chain. Isolation was the least effective, with its success highly dependent on the timely identification and management of infected sheep. Additionally, adult sheep exhibit higher sensitivity to the vaccine than lambs, which may be related to the maturity of their immune systems. Integrated control of both patches outperformed control of a single patch. When the patch size ratio exceeded 5.9, age-based vaccination was more cost-effective; otherwise, proportional allocation by patch size was more cost-effective. [Conclusion] Vaccination is the most effective intervention for controlling sheep brucellosis, and integrated control strategies offer greater advantages. The vaccination allocation strategy based on the size-ratio threshold of 5.9 provides a decision-making basis for the precise and economical prevention and control of brucellosis.

关键词

布鲁氏菌病 / 稳定性 / Lyapunov 函数 / 目标再生数 / 控制措施

Key words

brucellosis / stability / Lyapunov function / target reproduction number / control measures

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基金资助

国家自然科学基金项目(12201330)

国家自然科学基金项目(12302017)

宁夏自然科学基金项目(2024AAC03311)

宁夏自然科学基金项目(2024AAC03001)