白山市积雪物候时空演变特征及其影响因素分析

Spatiotemporal variations of snow phenology and its influencing factors in Baishan city, Northeast China

摘要

【目的】积雪物候是寒区水文过程与气候变化响应研究中的关键参数，其时空变化直接影响山区水资源调配与生态安全评估，本研究旨在定量探讨气温、降水及地形因子对积雪变化的驱动作用及其交互效应。【方法】基于 NIEER AVHRR/MODIS 融合积雪数据集，结合气象与地形数据，采用趋势分析、皮尔逊相关分析与地理探测器方法，系统分析了 2000—2020 年吉林省白山市积雪初日（SCS）、积雪终日（SCM）及积雪日数（SCD）的时空演变特征及其影响因素。【结果】1）空间分布上，积雪物候呈现显著空间异质性，＞1 300 m 海拔区域表现为更明显的积雪初日提前、终日推迟、持续时间更长，表明海拔是控制积雪形成与消融时序的主要地形因子。2）时间变化上，近 20 年白山市 SCD 年际变化以波动特征为主，并整体呈弱下降趋势，年变化速率主要分布在－1.0～0.5 d·a⁻¹ 区间，SCS 与 SCM 变化趋势整体不显著。3）驱动因子方面，在地形因子中，海拔对积雪空间分异的解释力最强，坡度与坡向对积雪物候具有一定调节作用，其中＞1 300 m 海拔区域西坡积雪持续时间相对较长，但整体影响程度弱于海拔；气温在各物候阶段的解释力均高于降水，对积雪物候变化的影响更为突出，且气温与降水、气温与地形之间普遍存在双因子增强效应。【结论】研究结果量化了复杂地形下气候因子对积雪的影响，可为东北山地水资源评估提供科学依据。

Abstract

[Objective] Snow phenology is a critical parameter in studies of hydrological processes and climate change responses in cold regions, and its spatiotemporal variations directly impact water resource allocation and ecological security assessments in mountainous areas. This study aimed to quantitatively investigate the driving effects of temperature, precipitation, and topographic factors on snow phenology changes, as well as their interactive effects. [Method] Based on the NIEER AVHRR/MODIS blended snow cover dataset, combined with meteorological and topographic data, this study employed trend analysis, Pearson correlation analysis, and the geographical detector method to systematically analyze the spatiotemporal evolution characteristics and driving mechanisms of the start of snow cover (SCS), the melt of snow cover (SCM), and snow cover days (SCD) in Baishan city, Jilin Province, from 2000 to 2020. [Result] 1) In terms of spatial distribution, snow phenology exhibits significant spatial heterogeneity across the study area. Regions with elevations >1 300 m show earlier snow cover start dates, later snow cover melt dates, and longer snow cover days, indicating that elevation is the primary topographic factor controlling the timing of snow formation and ablation. 2) In terms of temporal variation, over the past 20 years the interannual variation of SCD in Baishan has been dominated by fluctuations and shows an overall weak decreasing trend. The annual rate of change is mainly distributed within the range of −1.0 to 0.5 d·a⁻¹, while the trends of SCS and SCM are generally not significant. 3) Regarding driving factors, among topographic factors, elevation shows the strongest explanatory power for the spatial differentiation of snow phenology. Slope and aspect also play certain regulatory roles. In areas with elevations >1 300 m, west-facing slopes tend to have relatively longer snow cover duration, although their overall influence is weaker than that of elevation. Among climatic factors, air temperature shows higher explanatory power than precipitation for all phenological stages, indicating a stronger influence on snow phenology variation. Moreover, interactions between temperature and precipitation, as well as between temperature and topography, generally exhibit a bivariate enhancement effect. [Conclusion] These findings quantify the effects of climatic factors on snow cover under complex topographic conditions and provide a scientific basis for water resource assessment in the mountainous regions of Northeast China.

关键词

积雪物候 / 时空演变 / 地形效应 / 地理探测器 / 白山市

Key words

snow phenology / spatiotemporal evolution / topographic effects / geographical detector / Baishan city

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基金资助

国家自然科学基金项目(42171333)

国家自然科学基金项目(42542122)

油气藏地质及开发工程全国重点实验室 2025 年度开放基金(PLN2025-25)

自然资源部江淮耕地资源保护与生态修复重点实验室 2025 年度开放课题(ARPE-2025-KF03)