宁蒗县马铃薯种薯生长气候适应性分析

Analysis of Climate Suitability for the Growth of Seed Potato in Ninglang County

摘要

马铃薯产业是云南省宁蒗彝族自治县（宁蒗县）传统、特色的优势农业产业，2021年宁蒗县将马铃薯种薯产业确立为“一县一业”主导产业。利用宁蒗县2015—2024年气象观测资料和马铃薯种薯产业提供的生育期观测数据，采用生育期平均气温、降水量、日照气候要素为区划因子。采用气候适应性计算方法，分析马铃薯在不同生育期的温度、降水及日照条件适应性及其空间分布规律。宁蒗县整体气候条件适宜马铃薯种植，年际气候资源较稳定，但区域间差异明显。块茎形成期与膨大期对水分需求最高，降水偏少区域成为产量的潜在限制因素；温度适应性总体较高，但在高海拔区存在低温风险。基于综合分析，6—8月温度、7月降水以及7—8月日照时数是驱动适应性空间差异的关键因子，日照因子在生育关键期发挥重要的调节作用。研究结果可为宁蒗县马铃薯生产布局优化与气候风险管理提供科学依据。

Abstract

The potato industry is the traditional and distinctive advantageous agricultural industry in Ninglang Yi Autonomous County (Ninglang County), Yunnan Province. In 2021, the seed potato industry in Ninglang County was established as its leading industry under the "one county, one industry" policy. Using meteorological observation data in Ninglang County from 2015 to 2024 and growth-stage observation data provided by the seed potato industry, the average temperature, precipitation and sunshine during growth stage were used as zoning factors. The suitability of temperature, precipitation, and sunshine for potatoes at different growth stages and their spatial distribution were analyzed by applying climate suitability calculation methods. The overall climate conditions in Ninglang County were suitable for potato growth, with relatively stable interannual climate conditions, but significant regional differences exist. The tuber formation and bulking stages have the highest water requirements, and areas with low precipitation become potential yield-limiting factors. Overall temperature suitability was relatively high, but there was a risk of low temperatures in high-altitude areas. Comprehensive analysis indicated that temperature from June-August, precipitation in July, and sunshine duration from July to August were the key factors driving the spatial differences in suitability, with sunshine duration playing a crucial role during critical growth stages. The findings could provide a scientific basis for optimizing the potato production layout and climate risk management in Ninglang County.

关键词

宁蒗县 / 马铃薯种薯 / 插值 / 气候适应性

Key words

Ninglang County / seed potato / interpolation / climate suitability

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基金资助

云南省基层台站气象科技创新与能力提升计划项目(STIAP202342)

云南省基层台站气象科技创新与能力提升计划项目(STIAP202440)