土地利用驱动下粤港澳大湾区生境质量演变及发展情景的预测响应

Evolution and Predictive Response of Habitat Quality in the Guangdong−Hong Kong−Macao Greater Bay Area under Land Use Drivers and Development Scenarios

摘要

【目的】快速城市化背景下，粤港澳大湾区土地利用格局的持续重构致使区域生境质量长期承压。然而，其生境质量演变是否呈现阶段性特征、何种土地利用转移主导驱动生境质量的退化，以及不同发展导向下未来生境质量将如何响应，仍缺乏系统性认识。为此，本研究以粤港澳大湾区为研究对象，探究土地利用驱动下生境质量的时空演变及其未来情景响应。【方法】基于2000-2020年土地利用数据，耦合斑块级土地利用变化模拟（patch-generating land use simulation, PLUS）模型与生态系统服务与权衡的综合评估（Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs, InVEST）生境质量模块，分析生境质量的时空演变、等级转移特征及变化区域特征，并识别稳定区、退化区和改善区；在模型精度验证的基础上，构建自然发展、耕地保护、经济发展和生态保护4类2030年情景，比较不同发展路径下生境质量响应差异，并定量评估土地利用变化的贡献效应。【结果】2000-2020年大湾区生境质量整体下降，其中，2000-2010年下降7.59%，2010-2020年降幅放缓至0.85%，空间上呈现“外围高，核心低”的分异格局。稳定区占比最高，退化区主要集中于湾区核心区域，改善区零星分布于局部地区。建设用地扩张以及耕地、水域等生态用地向建设用地转化，是生境质量下降的主要原因。情景模拟表明，生态保护情景改善效果最为明显，经济发展情景退化最为突出。【结论】粤港澳大湾区的生境质量演变并非简单的线性退化，而是建设用地扩张与生态用地保护共同作用下的动态变化过程。区域的生境质量改善不能依赖惯性发展路径，而应通过约束建设用地无序扩张、强化蓝绿生态空间保护与修复，实现区域生态治理与国土空间优化协同。

Abstract

[Objective] Rapid urbanization has profoundly reshaped land-use patterns and ecological processes in global mega-urban regions, posing major challenges to habitat sustainability and regional ecological security. As one of the most densely populated and intensively developed urban agglomerations in China, the Guangdong−Hong Kong−Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA) accommodates nearly 5% of the national population and generates over 12% of the gross domestic product (GDP) on less than 0.6% of the national land area. This highly compact development model has driven the continuous expansion of construction land at the expense of cropland, forest, grassland, and aquatic ecosystems, resulting in increasing habitat degradation and ecological pressure. Although previous studies have examined habitat quality or ecological patterns in the GBA, most have focused on static assessments or single-period analyses and rarely integrated historical evolution, future land-use simulation, and mechanisms of contribution within a unified analytical framework. Moreover, uncertainties remain regarding how different development pathways may shape future habitat quality trajectories. Against this background, this study aims to systematically investigate the spatiotemporal evolution of habitat quality in the GBA from 2000 to 2020, quantify the contribution of land-use transitions to habitat quality change, and explore the potential responses of habitat quality under multiple land-use scenarios through 2030. By coupling the patch-generating land use simulation (PLUS) model with the Integrated Valuation of Ecosystem Services and Tradeoffs (InVEST) habitat quality module, this research seeks to provide scientific evidence for regional ecological governance, spatial planning optimization, and sustainable development strategies in high-density urban agglomerations. [Methods] This study integrates land-use analysis, habitat quality assessment, and scenario-based simulation within a coupled PLUS−InVEST modeling framework. Multi-period land use/land cover data for 2000, 2010, and 2020 were obtained from the Chinese Land Use/Cover Change (CLUCC) dataset and reclassified into seven major land-use categories. Habitat quality was evaluated using the InVEST habitat quality module by incorporating habitat suitability, anthropogenic threat sources, threat intensity, and land-type sensitivity. Cropland, construction land, and unused land were identified as major threat sources to reflect human disturbance. Spatial patterns, temporal trends, and grade transitions of habitat quality were analyzed using GIS-based spatial analysis methods. Future land-use patterns for 2030 were simulated using the PLUS model, which applies a random forest algorithm to identify land expansion drivers and a multi-type random patch seed mechanism to generate spatially explicit land-use patches. Ten natural, socioeconomic, and accessibility-related driving factors were incorporated. Model performance was validated by simulating land use in 2020 based on 2010 data, achieving a Kappa coefficient of 0.897, indicating high simulation accuracy. Four future scenarios were designed: natural development (ND), agricultural development (AD), economic development (ED), and ecological protection (EP), reflecting different policy orientations. The contribution degree and habitat quality dynamic indices were employed to quantify the positive and negative effects of specific land-use transitions on habitat quality change under each scenario. [Results] From 2000 to 2020, the average habitat quality in the Guangdong−Hong Kong−Macao Greater Bay Area declined from 0.431 to 0.395, indicating an overall degradation trend. However, the rate of degradation slowed significantly after 2010, suggesting that ecological conservation measures implemented in recent years have partially mitigated the habitat deterioration. Spatially, habitat quality exhibited significant heterogeneity, showing a distinct “periphery-high, core-low” pattern. High-quality habitats were primarily located in the northern and peripheral mountainous regions dominated by forests and grasslands, whereas low-quality habitats were concentrated in the highly urbanized core areas, including Guangzhou, Shenzhen, Foshan, and Dongguan. Land-use transition analysis revealed that the conversion of cropland and ecological land to construction land was the primary driver of habitat quality degradation. Approximately 75.76% of the study area remained stable in habitat quality grade, while degraded areas were mainly distributed in regions experiencing intense urban expansion. Scenario simulations indicated divergent future trajectories. Under the ND scenario, habitat quality showed slight improvement compared with that in 2020. The AD scenario moderately alleviated habitat degradation by reducing cropland loss and constraining construction land expansion. In contrast, the ED scenario significantly exacerbated habitat degradation, with extensive conversion of cropland and grassland to construction land leading to increased fragmentation. The EP scenario produced the most favorable outcomes, increasing mean habitat quality by approximately 1.8% relative to that under the ND scenario, primarily due to the expansion of forests, grasslands, and water bodies and strict control of construction land growth. Contribution analysis further confirmed that construction land expansion was the dominant negative factor, whereas ecological land restoration played a critical positive role in improving habitat quality. [Conclusion] This study demonstrates that land-use change plays a decisive role in shaping habitat quality dynamics in high-density urban agglomerations. By integrating PLUS and InVEST, the research provides a comprehensive framework linking land-use simulation, habitat quality assessment, and contribution-based mechanism analysis. The results indicate that while recent ecological policies have slowed habitat degradation in the GBA, future habitat quality trajectories remain highly sensitive to development pathways. Unregulated economic expansion may lead to persistent habitat deterioration, whereas ecological protection-oriented strategies can effectively enhance habitat quality even under continued urbanization pressure. These findings highlight the necessity of controlling construction land expansion, safeguarding cropland and blue−green spaces, and strengthening ecological restoration in core urban areas. The proposed framework and empirical insights offer transferable methodological references for other mega-urban regions, such as the Yangtze River Delta and the Beijing−Tianjin−Hebei urban agglomeration, and provide robust scientific support for regional ecological governance and spatial planning toward sustainable urban futures.

关键词

风景园林 / 生态系统服务 / 粤港澳大湾区 / 生境质量 / 土地利用变化

Key words

landscape architecture / ecosystem services / the Greater Bay Area / habitat quality / land use change

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基金资助

广东省哲学社会科学规划项目“粤港澳大湾区生态系统服务供需风险及生态补偿研究”(GD26DWQ23)

广州市科技局社会发展项目(202206010058)

广东省自然科学基金“基于生态系统服务权衡与协同的城市群土地利用格局多目标决策研究——以粤港澳大湾区为例”(2023A1515011451)