基于全球疾病负担数据库分析职业硫酸暴露下喉癌患者的死亡趋势

Trend and projection of larynx cancer mortality caused by occupational exposure to sulfuric acid

摘要

目的 量化1990~2021年中国职业硫酸暴露与喉癌患者的死亡负担趋势，分析人口增长、老龄化与流行病学改变的驱动作用，为优化职业暴露防控策略的制定和公共卫生干预提供参考。方法 基于全球疾病负担研究数据库，分析职业硫酸暴露引起喉癌的死亡人数、死亡率及估计年度变化百分比等指标，运用三因素分解法量化人口增长、老龄化及流行病学改变的影响，构建年龄－时期－队列模型分解年龄时期队列的影响，通过贝叶斯年龄－时期－队列模型预测2040年疾病负担。结果 2021年男性占死亡病例82%(655.82例)，65~69岁为死亡高峰年龄。1990~2021年，职业硫酸暴露导致我国的LC死亡病例增长55%，但年龄标准化死亡率年均下降1.68%。三因素分解显示老龄化(135.82%)和人口增长(120.96%)是主要驱动因素，而流行病学改变使死亡病例减少156.78%。预测2040年死亡人数将达916例，但年龄标准化死亡率下降至0.0496/10万。结论 1990~2021年，中国职业硫酸暴露相关喉癌防控成效，但人口结构变化使绝对疾病负担持续加重，老年男性群体尤为高危。未来需重点加强职业暴露监测与高危人群健康管理，以应对老龄化社会背景下的防控挑战。

Abstract

Objective To quantify the trend of mortality burden from occupational sulfuric acid exposure causing laryngeal cancer (LC) in China from 1990 to 2021, and analyze the contributions of population growth, aging, and epidemiological changes. This will provide insights for optimizing occupational exposure prevention strategies and public health interventions. Methods To quantify the trend of mortality burden from occupational sulfuric acid exposure causing laryngeal cancer (LC) in China from 1990 to 2021, and analyze the contributions of population growth, aging, and epidemiological changes. This will provide insights for optimizing occupational exposure prevention strategies and public health interventions. Results In 2021, men accounted for 82% of LC deaths (655.82 cases), with the highest mortality peak at ages 65-69. From 1990 to 2021, LC deaths from occupational sulfuric acid exposure increased by 55%, but the age-standardized mortality rate declined by an average of 1.68% per year. The three-factor decomposition showed that aging (135.82%) and population growth (120.96%) were the main driving factors, while epidemiological changes led to a 156.78% reduction in deaths. It is predicted that by 2040, the number of deaths will reach 916, with the age-standardized mortality rate declining to 0.0496/100,000. Conclusion From 1990 to 2021, China made significant progress in controlling occupational sulfuric acid exposure-related LC, but the aging population has led to a continued increase in the absolute disease burden, particularly among elderly men. Future efforts should focus on strengthening occupational exposure monitoring and health management of high-risk populations to address the challenges of an aging society.

关键词

硫酸暴露 / 喉癌 / 全球疾病负担数据库 / 年龄标准化死亡率

Key words

Sulfuric acid exposure / Laryngeal cancer / Global burden of disease study / Age-standardized mortality

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