蒙古扁桃潜在地理分布对气候变化的响应

Response of Potential Geographic Distribution of Amygdalus mongolica to Climate Change

摘要

为了解蒙古高原第三纪孑遗珍稀濒危物种蒙古扁桃（Amygdalus mongolica）潜在分布特征及其对未来气候变化的响应，利用121个蒙古扁桃种群分布点数据，选取气候和土壤变量，通过在R软件Biomod2建模平台构建物种综合适宜生境模型（CHS），模拟当前气候条件和预测未来两个时期（2050S和2090S）共3种不同气候情景下（SSP1-2.6、SSP3-7.0和SSP5-8.5）蒙古扁桃的潜在分布、时空演变特征及适宜生境迁移。结果显示：气候适宜性模型（\mathrm{E}\mathrm{M}）的TSS>0.75，分布限制模型（L_i ）的受试者工作特征曲线（ROC）>0.90，表明选择综合适宜生境模型能精确地模拟不同气候情景蒙古扁桃潜在地理分布特征。当前气候条件下蒙古扁桃的适宜生境面积为64.00万km²，占全国总面积的6.67%，主要分布于蒙甘宁等地，少量分布于青海、新疆、陕西、山西、河北等地。未来（2050S、2090S）SSP1-2.6、SSP3-7.0、SSP5-8.5三种气候情景下，蒙古扁桃的适宜生境面积均呈现出减少趋势，且2090S不同气候情景下适宜生境面积均小于2050S。蒙古扁桃适宜生境质心整体上有逐步向西和向高纬度地区迁移的趋势。

Abstract

To understand the distribution characteristics of Amygdalus mongolica， a rare and endangered Tertiary in the Mongolian Plateau， and its response to future climatic change， climate and soil variables with 121 population distribution points of A. mongolica were selected， and the comprehensive habitat suitability model（CHS） in the R software Biomod2 modeling platform was constructed， which was used to simulate and predict suitable habitat under the current climatic condition and three different future climate scenarios（SSP1-2.6、SSP3-7.0 and SSP5-8.5） in the future（2050S and 2090S）， and the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics was analyzed， and the migration pattern of suitable habitat was explored. The results showed that the TSS of the climate suitability model （ensemble model） was >0.75， the ROC of the distribution limitation model was >0.90， which indicated that the comprehensive habitat suitability model selected in this study might accurately simulate the potential geographical distribution characteristics of A. mongolica under different climate scenarios. The suitable habitat area of A. mongolica at present was 64.00×10⁴ km²， mainly distributed in Inner Mongolia， Gansu and Ningxia， a small number distribution in Qinghai， Xinjiang， Shaanxi， Shanxi， Hebei and other places. The suitable habitat area of A. mongolica showed a decreasing trend under three climate change scenarios（SSP1-2.6， SSP3-7.0， SSP5-8.5） in the future， and the suitable habitat area under different climate scenarios in 2090S was smaller than that in 2050S. Its suitable distribution area extended to the west and higher latitudes as a whole.

关键词

蒙古扁桃 / 气候变化 / 综合适宜生境模型 / 适宜生境

Key words

Amygdalus mongolica / climate change / comprehensive habitat suitability model / suitable habitat

Author summay

贺晓慧（1985—），女，副教授，主要从事生物地理与植物生理生态学研究。