“全面三孩”政策下已育家庭继续生育意愿及影响因素分析

Analysis of fertility desire and influencing factors of families with children to continue childbirth under the Comprehensive Three-child policy

摘要

目的 了解我国已育家庭的再生育意愿和“全面三孩”政策对其生育意愿的影响,以期为“全面三孩”政策背景下推进和完善政策提供科学依据。方法 通过在线问卷Credamo调查平台,按照全国人口普查数量的0.05%进行抽样,于2021年11月至12月向0~3岁婴幼儿的家长发放再生育意愿问卷进行调查;通过卡方检验及二分类Logistic回归模型对已育父母的继续生育意愿及其影响因素进行分析。结果 项目回收家庭问卷27782份,排除不符合条件的问卷后,最终有效问卷25078份(90.3%).36.1%的已育父母表示不想再生育,18.5%有再生育一个孩子的计划,9.9%有再生育两个及以上孩子的计划,35.5%对继续生育计划表示顺其自然.在愿意继续生育的被调查者中,59.6%计划在3年以内生育下一个孩子,15.5%计划3年以后继续生育.1536(7.1%)个家庭表示受到“全面三孩”政策很大影响,之前不想继续生育,现在选择继续生育;9911(45.5%)个家庭表示受到“全面三孩”政策的一定影响,之前犹豫是否要再生育,现在选择继续生育;2996(13.8%)的父母表示没有太多影响,之前就想再生育;7325(33.7%)表示没有影响,之前和现在都不想生.已有孩子数量、父母年龄、学历和家庭经济能力是影响继续生育意愿的重要因素。结论 “全面三孩”政策对已育家庭的生育意愿影响效果已经初步显现,其中已育2孩及以上、专科/本科学历、高收入家庭可能为受三孩政策影响生育意愿的主要人群.

Abstract

Objective To understand fertility desire of Chinese families with existing children to have more children again and impact of Comprehensive Three-child policy on their fertility willingness, so as to provide scientific basis for promoting and improving policies under background of the Comprehensive Three-Child policy. Methods Through online questionnaire Credamo survey platform, questionnaires were distributed to parents with infants and young children aged 0-3 years all over 31 provincial capital cities across the country who were sampled for questionnaire investigation in proportion of 0.05% of the national population from November to December 2021. Chi square test and binary Logistic regression model were used to analyze willingness of parents to continue childbirth and the influencing factors. Results 27782 questionnaires were collected in the project, after excluding questionnaires that didn't meet the criteria, 25078 valid questionnaires were collected. Of which 36.1% of parents who had had children said that they did not want to have another child, 18.5% of parents had plans to have another child, 9.9% of parents had plans to have two or more children, and 35.5% of parents said they would let nature take its course in their plans to continue having children. Among families who hopped to continue having children, 59.6% of the families planned to have their next child within 3 years, and 15.5% of the families planned to continue having children after 3 years. 1536 (7.1%) families stated that they were greatly affected by the Comprehensive Three-child policy: they did not want to continue having children before, but now, they would choose to continue having children. 9911 (45.5%) families expressed some influences from the Comprehensive Three-child policy and hesitated whether to have another child before, but now, they would choose to continue having children. 2996 (13.8%) of parents stated that there was not much impact and had previously wanted to have another child; 7325 (33.7%) of parents indicated no impact and did not want to have children before or now. The number of existing children, parents' age, educational background and family economic capacity were important factors that affect their willingness to continue childbirth. Conclusion The impact of the Comprehensive Three-child policy on the fertility intention of families who have existing children has preliminarily appeared. Among them, families with 2 or more children, college/undergraduate education, and high-income families may be the main population affected by the Comprehensive Three-child policy.

关键词

已育家庭 / 生育意愿 / 全面三孩政策 / 育龄妇女 / 现况调查

Key words

fertility desire / Comprehensive Three-child policy / child-bearing age women / current status survey

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基金资助

首都卫生发展科研专项(CFH2024G2GG1135)

中国与世界卫生组织2020-2021双年度合作项目(GJ2G2021GWHOSO-18)