海南榴莲幼树高温灾害的初步研究

Heat disaster of young durian trees in Hainan

摘要

为有效利用气候资源并建立长期有效的灾害防御体系以促进海南榴莲产业良性发展，本研究分析了高温日变化过程及其对榴莲幼树的影响。选取日最高气温为主，14 时相对湿度为辅作为高温灾害的气象因子。采用百分位阈值法，构建榴莲（Durio zibethinus Murr.）幼树日高温灾害、过程高温灾害和年型高温灾害等级指标。结果表明，2015-2024 年，海南主要榴莲种植区幼树受高温灾害影响的日数在 7.2～81.7 d，过程高温灾害总次数在 1.1～10.7 次，年型高温灾害在轻度−重度以上均有出现。从高温总日数、重度以上灾害日数、过程总次数、重度以上过程次数、年型灾害等级等指标分析，北部榴莲种植区高温灾害重于南部种植区，分布为澄迈>三亚>乐东>保亭>陵水。海南榴莲幼树生长中遭遇高温灾害的概率很大，种植中需要重点做好高温灾害防御措施，改变榴莲园区局地小气候环境，降低榴莲高温危害。

Abstract

To effectively utilize climate resources and establish a long-term effective disaster prevention system to promote the healthy development of the durian industry in Hainan, the diurnal variation process of high temperatures was analyzed. The daily maximum temperature, supplemented by relative humidity at 14:00 was selected as the key meteorological indicator for high temperature disasters. The percentile threshold method was used to construct classification indices for daily high temperature disasters, process-based high temperature disasters, and annual high temperature disaster types for young durian trees. The results showed that from 2015 to 2024, the number of days affected by high temperature disasters for young durian trees in major durian cultivation areas of Hainan ranged from 7.2 to 81.7 days, that the total frequency of process-based high temperature disasters ranged from 1.1 to 10.7 times, and that annual high temperature disaster types ranged from mild to severe and above. Based on comprehensive analysis of indicators including total high temperature days, days with severe and above disasters, total frequency of disaster processes, frequency of severe and above processes, and annual disaster classification, high temperature disasters were more severe in northern durian cultivation areas than in southern areas, with the distribution pattern being in the order of Chengmai > Sanya > Ledong > Baoting > Lingshui. The probability of young durian trees encountering high temperature disasters during growth in Hainan is substantial; therefore, priority should be given to implementing high temperature disaster prevention measures in cultivation practices, modifying local microclimate conditions in durian orchards, and reducing high temperature damage to durian trees.

关键词

榴莲 / 幼树 / 海南 / 高温灾害 / 百分位阈值法

Key words

Durio zibethinus Murr. / Hainan / young trees / heat disasters / percentile threshold method

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基金资助

农业农村部热带果蔬遗传资源评价利用重点实验室（部省共建）/海南省热带果树生物学重点实验室 2025 年联合开放课题项目(ITFT2025PT0103)

2025 年海南省农业农村厅榴莲产业链项目()

海南省南海气象防灾减灾重点实验室项目(SCSF202507)

海南省农业科学院重点工作项目(HAAS2025ZDGZ03)