海南“三江源”水源涵养量时空演变特征及驱动因素分析

Spatio-temporal dynamics and driving factors of water conservation in the “Sanjiangyuan” area of Hainan Island

摘要

海南“三江源”区域是海南 3 大河流南渡江、昌化江和万泉河的共同发源地和最重要的汇水区，位于海南热带雨林国家公园的中央地带。本研究综合考虑水文、地形地貌、植被条件及国家公园管理边界等，科学划定了海南“三江源”区域。采用 2013、2018 和 2023 年共 3 期数据，利用 InVEST 模型评估水源涵养量及其动态变化趋势，并利用最优参数地理探测器（OPGD）探究水源涵养量时空变化的主要驱动因素。结果表明：1）2013、2018 和 2023 年的海南“三江源”水源涵养量分别为 19.4×10⁸、8.97×10⁸、10.66×10⁸ m³，呈现先下降后小幅回升的阶段性变化特征，体现出筹建于 2019 年的海南热带雨林国家公园对海南“三江源”水源涵养量的积极作用；2）水源涵养量高值区主要集中在五指山、鹦哥岭和黎母山中高海拔山区；3）降水量是水源涵养空间分异的主导因素，q 值为 0.525～0.654。高程次之，潜在蒸散发和气温也具有较高解释力。降水量与高程交互作用的解释力最强，q 值为 0.779～0.804。本研究阐明了海南“三江源”水源涵养量的时空演变特征及其影响因素，有助于海南水资源管理和海南热带雨林国家公园水源涵养量优化提升策略的科学制定。

Abstract

The “ Sanjiangyuan” area (Sources of three major rivers) of Hainan Island constitutes the shared source area and primary catchment of the three major rivers, the Nandu, Changhua, and Wanquan rivers. As the central core of the National Park of Hainan Tropical Rainforest, this area plays a vital role in maintaining ecological security, sustaining ecosystem services, and supporting socio-economic development across Hainan Island. The “Sanjiangyuan” area of Hainan Island was delineated through an integrated framework that incorporates hydrological processes, topographic and geomorphological characteristics, natural environmental conditions, ecosystem service functions, and national park management boundaries. The data of three periods in 2013, 2018, and 2023 were selected for analysis of their water conservation and its temporal evolution and spatial distribution pattern conservation by using the InVEST model, and the Optimal Parameters-based Geographical Detector was used to explore the main driving factors of temporal and spatial changes of water conservation. The results showed that water conservation from 2013 to 2023 was 19.4×10⁸, 8.97×10⁸, 10.66×10⁸m³, respectively, and exhibited a non-linear temporal trajectory, characterized by a pronounced decline followed by a modest recovery. In terms of spatial scale, high-value areas were predominantly concentrated in the middle-to high-elevation mountainous headwaters of the three major river systems, reflecting the combined effects of higher elevations, favorable precipitation regimes, and relatively low evapotranspiration demand. Precipitation emerged as the primary determinant of spatial variation in water conservation (q = 0.525−0.654), followed by elevation, while potential evapotranspiration and temperature also exerted substantial explanatory influence. Interactions among driving factors consistently enhanced their explanatory power, with the precipitation–elevation interaction exerting the strongest effect (q = 0.779−0.804). These findings clarify the spatiotemporal dynamics and driving forces of water conservation in a critical tropical headwater region and provide robust scientific evidence to improve water resource management and ecosystem-based strategies for enhancing water security on Hainan Island.

关键词

海南 / 水源涵养 / 时空演变 / 驱动因素

Key words

Hainan Island / water conservation / spatial variations / driving factors

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基金资助

海南省重点研发项目(ZDYF2025SHFZ037)