基于多源数据的莎车县森林火险风险评估与区划研究

Forest Fire Risk Assessment and Zoning in Shache County Based on Multi-Source Data

摘要

森林是陆地生态系统核心，在蓄水保土、调节气候等方面具有不可替代的生态功能。莎车县作为新疆西南部重要生态节点，拥有“三北”防护林、三大生态公园等关键生态资产，森林防火关乎区域生态安全与发展全局。针对县级历史火点数据短缺、传统评估模型难以应用的困境，本研究融合气象、遥感、地形及人文多源数据，构建四级评估体系，采用层次分析法确定权重（AHP）（气象0.40、可燃物0.30、地形0.15、人类活动0.15，CR<0.1），经地理信息系统（GIS）归一化与加权叠加生成火险区划图。结果显示，高/极高风险区呈斑块状分布于叶尔羌河沿岸胡杨林、东南部林带及交通干线沿线，低风险区集中于北部荒漠及中部农田，风险分布与生态功能区、林地及人口活动范围高度契合。该模型为数据薄弱地区森林防火提供可靠技术支撑，推动防火工作从“经验主导”向“数据驱动”转型。

Abstract

Forests，as the core of terrestrial ecosystems，possess irreplaceable ecological functions such as water storage，soil conservation，and climate regulation．Shache County，a crucial ecological node in southwestern Xinjiang，is endowed with key ecological assets including the“Three-North”Shelterbelt Program and three major ecological parks．Forest fire prevention is vital to regional ecological security and overall development．Confronted with the predicament of insufficient historical fire point data at the county level and the inapplicability of traditional evaluation models，this study integrated multi-source data encompassing meteorological，remote sensing，topographical，and human factors to construct a four-level assessment system．The analytic hierarchy process（AHP）was employed to determine the weights of the indicators：meteorology （0.40），combustibles（0.30），topography（0.15），and human activities（0.15），with a consistency ratio CR<0.1，Normalization and weighted overlay analyses were performed using geographic information system（GIS）to generate the fire risk zoning map．The results indicated that high/extremely high-risk areas are distributed in patches along the Populus euphratica forests of the Yarkant River，the forest belts in the southeastern region，and along major transportation routes．Low-risk areas are concentrated in the northern desert and central farmland．The risk distribution is highly consistent with ecological function zones，forested areas，and the scope of human activities．This model provides reliable technical support for forest fire prevention in data-scarce regions and promotes the transformation of fire prevention work from“experience-driven”to“data-driven”．

关键词

森林火险 / 风险评估 / 多源数据 / GIS / 莎车县

Key words

forest fire risk / risk assessment / multi-source data / GIS / Shache County

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基金资助

喀什地区地方课题—基于多源数据的莎车县森林火险风险评估与区划研究(KS202402)