邢台西部山区苹果主要气象灾害分析与风险评估

Analysis and Risk Assessment of Major Meteorological Disasters Affecting Apples in the Western Mountainous Area of Xingtai

摘要

利用信都区、内丘县国家站和区域气温、降水、日照等气象资料，海拔、苹果种植面积、农民人均可支配收入等其他地理信息和社会经济资料，综合分析筛选苹果多灾种致灾因子、孕灾环境、承灾体、防灾减灾能力等4个方面17个评价指标，利用层次分析法和熵权法确定各个评价指标的权重，构建邢台西部山区苹果主要气象灾害综合风险评估指标体系。基于自然灾害风险理论和自然断点法对邢台西部山区苹果多灾种气象灾害展开评估。研究表明：邢台西部山区苹果主要气象灾害分布呈现出自南向北加重的趋势。次高以上风险主要分布在宋家庄镇、侯家庄乡、獐么乡、南赛乡；中风险主要分布在冀家村乡、将军墓镇、浆水镇、路罗镇、白岸乡西部地区。

Abstract

Utilizing meteorological data such as temperature，precipitation，and sunshine from national stations in Xindu District and Neiqiu County，as well as other geographical and socio-economic data including elevation，apple cultivation area，and per capita disposable income of farmers，a comprehensive risk assessment index system for major meteorological disasters affecting apples in the western mountainous areas of Xingtai was established．This system includes 17 evaluation indicators across four dimensions：multi-disaster causative factors，disaster-prone environments，disaster-bearing bodies，and disaster prevention and mitigation capabilities．The Analytic Hierarchy Process（AHP）and entropy weight method were employed to determine the weights of each indicator，further constructing a risk index assessment model．Based on GIS technology，an assessment of meteorological disaster risks in the study area was conducted．The results indicate that the distribution of major meteorological disasters affecting apples in the western mountainous areas of Xingtai exhibits a trend of increasing severity from south to north．High and very high risks are primarily concentrated in Songjiazhuang Town，Houjiazhuang Township，Zhangmo Township，and Nansai Township，while medium risks are mainly distributed in Jijiacun Village Township，Jiangjunmu Town，Jiangshui Town，Luluo Town，and the western regions of Bai'an Township．

关键词

苹果 / 权重 / 综合风险评估

Key words

apple / weight / comprehensive risk assessment

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基金资助

河北省气象局项目(23zc22)

邢台市科学技术局项目(2023ZC308)