水资源约束下新疆粮食安全潜力评估研究

An Assessment of Food Security Potential in Xinjiang under Water Resources Constraints

摘要

本研究立足于国家粮食安全战略需求，系统评估新疆建设国家粮食安全保障基地的综合潜力。研究构建“自然资源承载能力—地理区位战略价值—潜在耕地开发空间—科技赋能增长动力”四位一体的分析框架，全面剖析新疆粮食可持续发展条件。分析表明，新疆光热与土地资源丰富，规模化生产条件优越，“一带一路”枢纽区位优势显著，具备成为国家粮食安全战略后方的良好基础；但同时也面临水资源硬约束、生态脆弱、产业链条较短及科技推广不均衡等挑战。未来新疆应坚持“以水定地、科技增效、生态优先”原则，通过深化水资源管控、推动高标准农田建设、强化科技集成应用、延伸产业链条等差异化政策，稳步释放粮食生产潜能，从而更好承担起国家粮食安全保障基地的重要使命。

Abstract

This study assesses Xinjiang's potential as a strategic base for ensuring China's food security by developing a comprehensive analytical framework integrating four dimensions：natural resource carrying capacity，geographic strategic value，potential arable land，and technology-driven growth．Results indicate that Xinjiang possesses abundant light and heat resources，extensive land suitable for large-scale farming，and a strategic location along the Belt and Road，providing a solid foundation for a national grain supply base．However，the region faces challenges including severe water constraints，ecological vulnerability，underdeveloped supply chains，and uneven adoption of agricultural technology．In the future，Xinjiang should adhere to the principles of“determining land use based on water resources，enhancing efficiency through technology，and giving priority to ecological protection”．By implementing differentiated policies such as deepening water resource management，promoting the construction of high-standard farmland，strengthening the integration and application of technologies，and extending the industrial chain，we will steadily unleash the potential of grain production，thereby better assuming the important mission of being a national base for ensuring food security．

关键词

新疆 / 粮食安全 / 保障基地 / 潜力分析

Key words

Xinjiang / food security / support base / potential analysis

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基金资助

中国国家自然科学基金项目—棉花“价格保险+期货”试点评估、机理探索与政策优化(721630282024)

年度新时代党的治疆方略项目—新疆粮食发展与保障粮食安全实践路径研究(2024ZJFLZ08)

2023年兵团社会科学基金项目—提升兵团棉花产业链韧性路径研究阶段性研究成果(23YB24)