群体生活用水节水潜力研究——以高校为例

Research on water-saving potential in group living communities: A case study of universities

摘要

为定量化探究高校学生群体生活用水行为习惯及节水潜力，通过问卷调查、统计分析、模型模拟等方法，在我国北方地区 79 所高校开展生活用水及节水研究。结果表明：高校学生群体生活用水量呈现地区差异，华北最高，东北次之，西北最低，用水量分别为 73～118、72～113 和 69～108 L/（人·d），不同地区用水结构相似，洗浴和冲厕行为用水比例占 65% 以上；女性群体平均用水量比男性高 10%～23%，用水量需求的地区及性别分化，主要由于用水行为习惯和节约意识差异导致；针对高校学生群体生活用水管理需求，构建生活用水与节水模拟模型，结合不同地区用水特征设置多组节水情景，模拟结果表明水价调控、节水宣传教育和节水器具升级的单一措施可分别降低用水量 3.2～5.2、12.3～14.0 和 8.9～11.8 L/（人·d），节水效率分别为 5%、14% 和 12%，组合措施的节水效率可达 22%～26%。基于模拟分析结果，建议高校推行宣传教育结合基础建设的组合策略，并针对不同地区高校学生群体生活用水差异制定精准节水管理措施。本研究为高校生活用水管理及节水型校园建设提供了数据与理论参考。

Abstract

Water scarcity is a major global issue. China is particularly affected, with per capita water availability significantly below the world average. Rapid urbanization worsens supply-demand imbalances, making water conservation a key national priority. Colleges, as densely populated areas, are major water consumers, often with per capita usage exceeding that of urban residents. Most existing research focuses on overall consumption at the macro level, often overlooking the subtle behavioral patterns of students, despite their potential to improve efficiency. Moreover, there is a lack of research that quantifies differences in living habits across regions and genders, or that models the effectiveness of targeted management strategies using detailed data. To fill this gap, this study systematically examines water use behaviors among college students in northern China. It provides theoretical insights and data-driven recommendations to optimize college water management and promote water-saving campuses by analyzing factors influencing water consumption and estimating potential savings through multi-scenario simulations. This study's multifaceted methodological framework integrates large-scale surveys, statistical analysis, and sophisticated modeling. A comprehensive questionnaire survey was conducted across 79 colleges in three distinct regions of northern China (north, northeast, and northwest), providing 4,785 valid responses concerning student demographics, daily living habits, usage frequency, and conservation awareness. To ensure methodological rigor, statistical techniques such as multivariate linear regression and non-parametric tests were used to identify key factors influencing water consumption, including gender, monthly living expenses, and water pricing. A major innovation of this research is the development of a hybrid simulation model that combines agent-based modeling (ABM) with the eXtreme gradient boosting (XGBoost) machine learning algorithm. This model simulates individual agent water usage behaviors, and further aggregates to analyze group dynamics. Multiple intervention scenarios were designed to evaluate water-saving potential: Scenario A involves economic regulation through price adjustments, Scenario B involves publicity and education campaigns, Scenario C involves infrastructure upgrades such as efficient appliances, and finally, a combined scenario integrates all measures. The results reveal that daily per capita water consumption among college students in northern China ranges from 69 to 118 liters per capita per day (lpcd). Pronounced regional heterogeneity was evident. Consumption peaked in north China (73 to 118 lpcd) and northeast China (72 to 113 lpcd), while northwest China exhibited the lowest levels (69 to 108 lpcd). Despite these regional disparities, consumption structures remained consistent, with bathing and toilet flushing collectively accounting for over 65% of total usage. Gender was identified as a pivotal determinant, with female students consuming 10% to 23% more water than their male counterparts, a disparity primarily attributed to increased bathing duration and frequency. Gender, the cost of hot water, and awareness of conservation were identified as the main factors influencing consumption through multivariate regression analysis. The effectiveness of particular water-saving techniques was measured through model simulations. Individual interventions exhibited varying degrees of efficacy: Economic regulation resulted in a modest reduction of 3.2 to 5.2 lpcd (3% to 5%); infrastructure upgrades achieved a reduction of 8.9 to 11.8 lpcd (11% to 12%); And publicity education proved notably effective, yielding a reduction of 12.3 to 14.0 lpcd (13% to 15%). A comprehensive approach, however, had the greatest impact; The synergistic integration of price controls, education, and technology produced a total water-saving efficiency of 22% to 26%, or a reduction of approximately 20.4 to 24.8 lpcd. This study shows that while individual water-saving measures provide small benefits, a comprehensive management strategy produces the most significant results. Relying solely on price changes has limited effectiveness and places an unfair financial burden on students; meanwhile, infrastructure upgrades and educational programs offer long-term, sustainable advantages. The findings recommend a nuanced, region-specific management framework. In north and northeast China, where water use is high and economic conditions are generally good, an integrated approach that combines infrastructure upgrades with educational campaigns is advised to maximize economies of scale. Conversely, in the arid northwest, where water use is lower, cost-effective educational efforts should be prioritized over phased infrastructure projects.

关键词

高校学生群体 / 生活用水特征 / 用水习惯 / 节水潜力 / 节水行为

Key words

college students / characteristics of domestic water / water consumption habit / water conservation potential / water-saving behavior

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基金资助

国家重点研发计划项目(2024YFE0213100)

国家自然科学基金面上项目(52479031)

青海省自然科学基金项目(2025-ZJ-908Q)