百色水利枢纽运行期汛末水位约束分期动态控制

Staged dynamic control of post-flood water level constraint for Baise Water Conservancy Project during operation

摘要

为推动解决水库防洪与兴利矛盾，重点提升水库汛末蓄满率和保障枯水期可持续性供水，实施水库汛末水位控制至关重要。针对百色水利枢纽2006年建库至今受汛期（5月1日−8月31日）单一的214 m汛限水位约束，2006−2024年汛末（10月31日）的多年平均蓄满率为81.47%，蓄水至8月31日的多年平均蓄满率为68.13%，单一汛限水位制约水库汛末蓄水需求的问题，提出一种考虑水库汛末来水特征的水库运行期汛末水位约束分期动态控制计算模型，首次以5 d为间隔分析流域来洪特征，分期计算水库汛末分期洪水，迭代演算得到汛末蓄水分期动态控制水位。结果表明：汛末8月31日蓄水分期动态控制水位约束相比原水库214 m汛限水位约束提升了8.41 m，采用汛末蓄水分期动态控制水位挖掘了百色水利枢纽的蓄水潜力。研究成果可为水库汛末水位动态控制提供技术指导和参考价值。

Abstract

Establishing reservoir water level constraints during the terminal flood season is a critical operational challenge, essential for balancing flood control requirements with conservation objectives while improving refill completion rates and ensuring water supply security during subsequent dry periods. During flood seasons, traditional reservoir operations primarily used a single, static flood-limited water level controlled by uniform regulations that routinely disregarded the dynamic variability of terminal flood season inflows. This conventional approach frequently resulted in failure to meet target impoundment levels while revealing significant untapped potential in late-season refill capacity. As a result, developing staged dynamic control levels that explicitly incorporate terminal flood season inflow characteristics has emerged as a critical research priority for alleviating systemic impoundment pressure in reservoir operation strategies. To address these operational constraints and increase storage potential, a thorough analysis of historical inflow characteristics at the Baise Water Conservancy Project from 1980 to 2024 was conducted. In order to incorporate the unique terminal flood season hydrological patterns of the project, a computational model for calculating staged dynamic control levels during the operational refill period was developed. An advanced impoundment initiation period was strategically established, with staged design floods computed every five days throughout the terminal flood season. Iterative hydraulic routing calculations were then used to derive the corresponding staged dynamic control levels for reservoir impoundment, methodically combining inflow frequency analysis with reservoir storage dynamics. The simulation results showed a significant improvement in permissible reservoir storage capacity. The newly established staged dynamic control level reached 222.41 m as the impoundment target date of August 31 approached. This represents a notable elevation increase of 8.41 m over the initial 214-meter flood limitation. This optimized control scheme effectively captured the distinct hydrological behavior characterizing the Baise Water Conservancy Project's late flood season, which was principally defined by an initial increase followed by a pronounced decrease in flood occurrence probability, with the critical transitional phase occurring around August 11. In conclusion, compared to traditional single-level constraints, the use of staged dynamic control levels incorporating terminal flood season inflow characteristics produced an operational framework that was more responsive and hydrologically representative. This methodological advancement better reflected the changing inflow trends observed in the river basin during this critical transitional period. The research outcomes demonstrate that reservoir refill potential can be substantially enhanced through scientifically grounded elevation of operational level constraints during the late flood season while rigorously maintaining necessary standards for downstream flood protection. This operational strategy effectively balances the dual objectives of flood risk management and water resource utilization, resulting in significant improvements in reservoir impoundment efficiency while maintaining downstream safety requirements.

关键词

汛末蓄水 / 汛末分期 / 水位约束 / 分期洪水 / 汛限水位

Key words

terminal flood season water level / end of flood season installment / water level constraint / staged flooding / flood limited water level

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基金资助

国家自然科学基金项目(52439002)

广西电网有限责任公司科研项目(GXKJXM20240127)

广西西江开发投资集团有限公司科研项目(XJJT-GGB-2024-004)