黄河宁夏河段干支流输沙过程突变特征及驱动机制

Abrupt change characteristics and driving mechanisms of sediment transport processes in main stream and tributaries of the Ningxia reach of the Yellow River

摘要

为揭示黄河宁夏河段长期输沙演变规律与驱动机制，基于干流下河沿、青铜峡、石嘴山及主要支流清水河、苦水河 5 个水文站长系列实测水文泥沙数据，构建四法交叉验证体系，从多维度识别输沙突变节点并剖析成因。结果表明：干流突变具有空间分异性，下河沿、青铜峡、石嘴山站共识突变点分别为 1976 年/1994 年、1963 年/1991 年、1978 年/1995 年，突变时序自上游向下游逐步滞后；支流突变集中于 2000 年后，清水河 2003 年、苦水河 2008 年突变强度远高于干流，呈骤变模式，与干流渐进式突变形成鲜明对比。干流 20 世纪 60−70 年代的突变与刘家峡水库运行耦合，20 世纪 90 年代的突变对应大规模水保措施实施；支流 2000 年后输沙骤降是退耕还林还草与淤地坝建设的叠加效应，整体呈现干流调控主导、支流敏感响应的演变格局。研究成果可为黄河宁夏河段水资源优化配置、河道治理以及防洪减灾提供科学依据。

Abstract

The identification of abrupt changes in sediment transport processes is regarded as a critical breakthrough in understanding the evolutionary mechanisms of river systems. The Ningxia Reach of the Yellow River, which serves as a critical link between the Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and the Loess Plateau in the upper reaches of the Yellow River, has seen significant changes in its water-sediment transport pattern as a result of the combined effects of human and natural factors. Long-term observed hydrological and sediment data were methodically gathered from major tributary stations (Qingshui River, Kushui River) and main stream stations (Xiaheyan, Qingtongxia, Shizuishan) of the Yellow River over a maximum period of 83 years in order to fully uncover the long-term water-sediment evolution laws and their driving mechanisms in this reach. Given the limitations of single abrupt change detection methods, which were susceptible to data noise and extreme value interference, an innovative "four-method cross-validation system" was developed. The Lee-Heghinian method, Fisher optimal partition method, ordered clustering analysis, and cumulative correlation curve method were all combined in this system. Abrupt change points in sediment transport sequences at each station were identified and cross-validated from a variety of perspectives, including correlation structure, statistical dispersion, and mean-variance jumps, while the causes of abrupt changes were investigated by combining human activity and natural factor data. The research results revealed three key findings. First, the abrupt change characteristics of the mainstream stations varied significantly across space. The consensus abrupt change points were 1976 and 1994 for Xiaheyan station, 1963 and 1991 for Qingtongxia station, and 1978 and 1995 for Shizuishan station. The slow propagation of driving impacts along the main stream was indicated by these points' gradual lag from upstream to downstream. Second, abrupt changes in tributaries mainly occurred after 2000, with the most significant points at 2003 for Qingshui River and 2008 for Kushui River. Tributaries were more vulnerable to outside disturbances because their abrupt changes were much more intense and displayed a drastic pattern in clear contrast to the main stream's gradual pattern. Third, mainstream abrupt changes in the 1960s–1970s were coupled with Liujiaxia Reservoir operation, while those in the 1990s corresponded to large-scale soil and water conservation. The sharp drop in tributary sediment transport after 2000 resulted from the combined effects of the Grain for Green Project and intensive check dam construction, which reduced sediment sources and adjusted local water-sediment relations. These results revealed significant differences in abrupt change characteristics between the main stream and tributaries in the Ningxia Reach, including temporal sequences, intensity, and modes of changes. This phenomenon reflected a clear water-sediment evolution pattern: "main stream regulation dominates, and tributaries respond sensitively". The findings provide scientific references for optimal water resource allocation, rational river channel regulation, and effective flood control and disaster reduction in the Ningxia reach, thereby promoting environmental protection and high-quality development in the Yellow River basin.

关键词

宁夏河段 / 输沙量 / 突变检测 / 水沙关系 / 驱动机制

Key words

Ningxia River section / sediment transport / mutation detection / water-sediment relationship / driving mechanism

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基金资助

国家自然科学基金黄河水科学研究联合基金项目(U2443224)

国家自然科学基金黄河水科学研究联合基金项目(U2243237)

宁夏回族自治区水利科技项目(NXHDZL-KY-2024-002)