荒漠绿洲区水资源配置空间均衡程度三层次评价方法

Three-tier assessment framework for spatial equilibrium degree of water resource allocation in desert oasis regions

摘要

为量化荒漠绿洲区水资源配置空间均衡程度，精准识别区域间与行业间配水保障能力，构建“资源本底-区域配置-行业保障”三层次水资源空间均衡评价框架，设置 4 个递进式评价情景，改进泰尔系数和胡佛指数，从供需双侧形成静态本底与动态情景融合的评价方法。以典型西北内陆河流域为研究区，系统划分 17 个计算单元并开展实证分析。结果表明：研究区泰尔系数达 1.49，呈现极端不均衡特征，而经现有工程调配后泰尔系数降至 0.03，空间均衡性显著提升；行业间配水公平性在 4 个情景下差异显著，从 F₀ 到 F₁ 农业单元胡佛指数下降，非农单元上升；F₂ 全行业同步节水凸显农业缺水，部分单元胡佛指数上升；F₃ 多数计算单元胡佛指数大幅下降，表明外调水工程的实施可有效缓解行业间用水竞争。研究表明该评价方法能有效识别荒漠绿洲区水资源配置空间均衡的层次性矛盾，可为区域水资源配置与结构调控提供定量依据，也为同类地区的水资源配置空间均衡评价研究提供参考。

Abstract

Extreme water scarcity, highly concentrated agricultural water consumption, and fierce competition for water resources between agricultural and ecological sectors are examples of the severe spatial mismatches between water availability and socioeconomic development that desert oasis regions in arid northwest China face. By combining various indicators into composite scores, traditional assessment methods often oversimplify these complexities, hiding underlying structural contradictions across sectors and regions. To address this methodological gap, we created a quantitative assessment framework that evaluates the spatial equilibrium of water resource allocation in desert oasis regions from both the supply and demand sides. A hierarchical assessment framework consisting of "resource endowment", "regional allocation", and "sectoral security" was created. The degree of alignment between the needs of regional development and the availability of natural water was measured at the resource endowment tier. The spatial equilibrium of interregional water distribution under current engineering infrastructure and regulatory arrangements was assessed at the regional allocation tier. To capture the dynamic evolution of water security at the sectoral security tier, three progressive stages were created: current sectoral equilibrium; projected sectoral equilibrium in planning year under the current water supply infrastructure; and projected sectoral equilibrium in planning year incorporating inter-basin water transfer projects. To better reflect supply-demand matching across regions, the Theil index was improved by replacing the traditional average allocation benchmark with a supply-demand share one. The Hoover index was modified to better characterize structural disparities in sectoral water scarcity by incorporating sector-specific dimensions and water shortage rate coefficients. Three fundamental matching logics were unified by the methodical integration of a supply-demand coordinated assessment perspective throughout the framework: "water endowment versus development demand", "water supply versus reasonable demand", and "sectoral allocation versus sectoral demand". A representative inland desert oasis basin in northwest China was used to define seventeen computational units, including water yield zones, socioeconomic water use zones, and ecological response zones. SkyRowas, a rule-based water resource allocation model, was used to simulate water demand under both the current and planning year conditions. The findings showed that the spatial equilibrium contradictions of water resources had clear hierarchical features. The Theil index for the natural spatial distribution of water endowment rose to 1.49, indicating a severe inherent imbalance between water-yielding mountainous regions and water-consuming oasis plains. Following regulation by existing reservoirs and canal systems, the Theil index for inter-regional water allocation fell sharply to 0.03, demonstrating that current infrastructure has significantly reduced natural endowment disparities and achieved a more equitable regional distribution of water resources. This level of spatial equilibrium remained stable across all evaluated scenarios. In contrast, sectoral water allocation equity proved highly sensitive to variations in water supply conditions. Under current conditions, agricultural-dominant units exhibited severe intra-sectoral inequity, whereas non-agricultural units maintained comparatively balanced allocations. Population growth, industrial expansion, and increased ecological protection requirements worsened sectoral water shortages in the planning year, assuming no new water supply infrastructure, leading to Hoover indices across various computational units. Upon implementation of inter-basin water transfer projects, Hoover indices declined significantly across all computational units; four units attained a Hoover index of 0 - indicating perfect sectoral equilibrium, wherein domestic, industrial, and ecological water demands were fully satisfied. Agricultural-dominant units experienced the most pronounced improvements. The three-tier framework effectively identified hierarchical contradictions in water resource allocation. The results showed that the marginal benefits of further optimizing inter-regional water allocation were significantly less than those derived from reducing sectoral competition. The ability of inter-basin water transfer projects to specifically alleviate sectoral structural contradictions was their primary source of effectiveness; by raising the overall system water availability, they quickly decreased the level of sectoral competition. Nevertheless, achieving a high level of equilibrium still required complementary internal measures, such as agricultural water conservation, thereby suggesting dual pathways for agricultural-dominated units. The improved indices, together with the supply-demand coordinated perspective, enabled precise alignment between assessment outcomes and actual water allocation contradictions, directly supporting informed management decisions. The proposed framework provides a structured and operationally feasible diagnostic tool for assessing spatial equilibrium in desert oasis regions.

关键词

水资源配置 / 空间均衡评价 / 泰尔系数 / 胡佛指数 / 荒漠绿洲区

Key words

water resource allocation / spatial equilibrium assessment / Theil index / Hoover index / desert oasis region

参考文献

[1] 张家欣, 黄会平, 韩宇平, 等. 水足迹视角下西北旱区种植结构协同调整[J]. 南水北调与水利科技（中英文）, 2023, 21(4): 751-760. DOI: 10.13476/j.cnki.nsbdqk.2023.0073.

[2] 韩方红, 高凡, 王海东, 等. 基于图论法的阿克苏河流域生态水网水系连通性评估[J]. 南水北调与水利科技（中英文）, 2025, 23(5): 1090-1099. DOI: 10.13476/j.cnki.nsbdqk.2025.0109.

[3] 马浩, 孟德利, 赵勇, 等. 民勤绿洲植被变化与水资源结构响应关系[J]. 南水北调与水利科技（中英文）, 2022, 20(5): 902-913. DOI: 10.13476/j.cnki.nsbdqk.2022.0090.

[4] 向扬, 李治军. 基于改进 TOPSIS 模型的山西省水资源承载力与协调发展分析[J]. 水利水电技术（中英文）, 2024, 55(4): 48-58. DOI: 10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2024.04.005.

[5] 靳世鑫, 苏承国, 黄佳荣, 等. 响应生态-经济-社会需求的区域水土资源联合优化配置研究[J]. 水利水电技术（中英文）, 2025, 56(1): 61-73. DOI: 10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2025.01.006.

[6] 李家乐, 林鹏飞, 李彦彬, 等. 基于水资源配置的空间均衡度评价方法[J]. 南水北调与水利科技（中英文）, 2024, 22(2): 215-227. DOI: 10.13476/j.cnki.nsbdqk.2024.0023.

[7] 高泽坤, 韦彦玲, 赵众, 等. 基于基尼系数的洱海灌区水资源配置均衡性研究[J]. 水利规划与设计, 2022(11): 19-26. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1672-2469.2022.11.005.

[8] 王珂, 贾兵强. “四水四定”视域下鹤壁市全域水资源优化配置方案探索[J/OL]. 水利信息化, 2026-07-17. https://link.cnki.net/urlid/32.1819.TV.20260521.1343.002.

[9] 韩宇平, 穆文彬, 张戴炜. 基于江河水量分配方法的黄河“八七”分水方案调整问题探讨[J]. 人民黄河, 2022, 44(9): 46-50.

[10] 王忠静, 娄俊鹏. 关于黄河“八七”分水方案调整的几点思考[J]. 人民黄河, 2022, 44(8): 1-5. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-1379.2022.08.001.

[11] 王岩, 刘斌, 徐立建, 等. 数字孪生技术与智慧水利枢纽建设思考[J]. 江苏水利, 2022(增刊 2): 76-80. DOI: 10.16310/j.cnki.jssl.2022.s2.014.

[12] 付奔, 金晨曦. 智慧水利指导下的云南水情信息化总体构想[J]. 水利信息化, 2022(1): 13-17. DOI: 10.19364/j.1674-9405.2022.01.003.

[13] Mehrparvar M, Ahmadi A, Safavi H R. Resolving water allocation conflicts using WEAP simulation model and non-cooperative game theory[J]. SIMULATION, 2020, 96(1): 17-30. DOI: 10.1177/0037549719844827.

[14] Hemati H, Abrishamchi A. Water allocation using game theory under climate change impact (case study: Zarinehrood)[J]. Journal of Water and Climate Change, 2020, 12(3): 759-771. DOI: 10.2166/wcc.2020.153.

[15] Moudi M, Song Xueqian, Gai Qiuyan, et al. Improving robustness of water supply system using a multi-objective robust optimization framework[J]. Environmental Research, 2023, 232： 116270. DOI: 10.1016/J.ENVRES.2023.116270.

[16] Mengistie G K, Haile A T, Ferede M, et al. Citizen science-based WEAP modeling of water use impact on environmental flow in urbanized Big Akaki catchment, Ethiopia[J]. Journal of Hydrology: Regional Studies, 2025, 59： 102435. DOI: 10.1016/J.EJRH.2025.102435.

[17] Joshi S, Deshkar S M. Assessment of future water demands in the Nagpur Metropolitan Region using the WEAP model[J]. Journal of Water and Climate Change, 2025, 16(4): 1551-1566. DOI: 10.2166/WCC.2025.649.

[18] Nguyen T D, Tran A N, Van T H, et al. The assessment of groundwater reserves, quality, and balance in Quang Nam region, Vietnam: Using MIKE Basin and MODFLOW models[J]. Environmental Research Communications, 2024, 6(10): 105004. DOI: 10.1088/2515-7620/AD7DDC.

[19] 胡瑞媛. 塔里木河流域水系连通格局演变与水资源多目标配置[D]. 西安： 西安理工大学, 2024. DOI: 10.27398/d.cnki.gxalu.2024.002296.

[20] 谢之帅. 基于不确定性的武威市水资源优化配置研究[D], 西安: 长安大学, 2023. DOI: 10.26976/d.cnki.gchau.2023.001649.

[21] 樊红梅, 刘晓民, 刘廷玺, 等. 基于空间均衡的水资源合理配置研究[J]. 水资源与水工程学报, 2022, 33(2): 61-67. DOI: 10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2022.02.08.

[22] 唐世南, 丁跃元, 于丽丽, 等. 内蒙古西辽河流域量水而行以水定需治理思路[J]. 水利规划与设计, 2019(11): 28-31.

[23] 左其亭, 蒋国栋, 臧超, 等. 基于人水和谐视角的国家水网优化布局构想与展望[J]. 华北水利水电大学学报（自然科学版）, 2024, 45(4): 1-7. DOI: 10.19760/j.ncwu.zk.2024036.

[24] 王成军, 张斯晴, 冯涛, 等. 基于耦合协调模型的人水和谐度评价[J]. 人民黄河, 2024, 46(8): 87-93. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-1379.2024.08.016.

[25] 信海亮, 陈亚男, 秦子璇. “四水四定”导向下水资源消耗总量和强度双控评价指标体系构建[J]. 山东理工大学学报（自然科学版）, 2026, 40(1): 58-65. DOI: 10.13367/j.cnki.sdgc.2026.01.007.

[26] 吴丹, 李昂, 张陈俊. 双控行动下京津冀经济发展与水资源利用脱钩评价[J]. 中国人口·资源与环境, 2021, 31(3): 150-160.

[27] 卫晨曦, 王烜, 李春晖, 等. 水域空间承载力研究进展[J]. 水资源与水工程学报, 2022, 33(1): 54-60. DOI: 10.11705/j.issn.1672-643X.2022.01.08.

[28] 汪梦植. 基于联系数耦合模型的水资源空间均衡评价与脆弱性诊断分析[D]. 合肥: 合肥工业大学, 2022. DOI: 10.27101/d.cnki.ghfgu.2022.001333.

[29] 崔庆宏, 陈润, 司红运, 等. “双碳”目标下智慧城市生态承载力测度及时空演变研究[J]. 软科学, 2026, 40(3): 102-109. DOI: 10.13956/j.ss.1001-8409.2026.03.13.

[30] 袁志毅, 张向萍, 王远见, 等. 车尔臣河诸小河流域水资源统一管理存在的问题及对策[J]. 人民黄河, 2022, 44(增刊 1): 23-24.

[31] 孙嘉, 刘文斌, 夏依买尔旦. 基于流域统一管理的塔里木河流域水资源管理体制框架设计研究[J]. 水利发展研究, 2022, 22(1): 50-54. DOI: 10.13928/j.cnki.wrdr.2022.01.009.

[32] 雷雲翔, 丁郭明, 沈新平, 等. 河长制对塔里木河流域水环境治理成效评价[J]. 灌溉排水学报, 2022, 41(增刊 1): 111-114. DOI: 10.13522/j.cnki.ggps.2022203.

[33] 屈冬梅. 河长制背景下水环境治理联合执法实践探索与研究[J]. 广东化工, 2025, 52(3): 100-101. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1007-1865.2025.003.031.

[34] Ruess P J, Hanley J, Konar M. Drought impacts to water footprints and virtual water transfers of counties of the United States[J]. Water Resources Research, 2025, 61(6): e2024WR037715. DOI: 10.1029/2024WR037715.

[35] Rhouma A, Seifudem G, Jeitany J E, et al. Connecting the water footprint with the Water-Energy-Food-Ecosystems Nexus concept and its added value in the Mediterranean[J]. Environmental and Sustainability Indicators, 2025, 26： 100640. DOI: 10.1016/J.INDIC.2025.100640.

[36] Rahman A A, Ibraheem H, Hani A A, et al. Integrating indigenous knowledge with MCDA in the GIS environment to determine site potential for water harvesting in Wadi Hammad basin in Jordan[J]. Sustainability, 2022, 14(21): 14033. DOI: 10.3390/SU142114033.

[37] Akhter S, Rahman M M, Monir M M. Flood susceptibility analysis to sustainable development using MCDA and support vector machine models by GIS in the selected area of the Teesta River floodplain, Bangladesh[J]. Hydro Research, 2025, 8： 127-138. DOI: 10.1016/J.HYDRES.2024.10.004.

[38] Salpisak H, Yamamoto T, Inoue T. Clarification of water use under the complicated irrigation system and its modeling in the Boribo-Bamnak river basin, Cambodia[J]. International Journal of Environmental and Rural Development, 2023, 14(1): 17-24. DOI: 10.32115/IJERD.14.1_17.

[39] Damasco M, Rajendrakumar S, Tharanidevi N, et al. Eco-profile approach in watershed and river basin management for addressing water rights and conflicts at micro scale[J]. Frontiers in Water, 2025, 7： 1511044. DOI: 10.3389/FRWA.2025.1511044.

[40] Christen C, Böcher M, Schneider P. The futures market for water rights trading in California: Analyzing the emergence of a controversial experiment[J]. Environmental Challenges, 2025, 19： 101125- 101125. DOI: 10.1016/J.ENVC.2025.101125.

[41] 包青岭, 丁建丽. 艾比湖流域土地利用变化对水资源的响应模拟研究[J]. 人民长江, 2026, 57(4): 117-125. DOI: 10.16232/j.cnki.1001-4179.2026.04.014.

[42] 游进军, 林鹏飞, 蒋云钟, 等. SkyRowas: 面向对象设计的基于规则水资源配置模型方法及应用[J/OL]. 中国水利水电科学研究院学报（中英文）, 2026-07-17. https://doi.org/10.13244/j.cnki.jiwhr.20250189.

[43] 康益敏, 闫娟娟, 赫超硕, 等. 健康山西背景下山西省卫生资源配置均衡性研究[J]. 中国卫生经济, 2025, 44(8): 49-54.

[44] 刘钰, 李登辉, 余卓芮, 等. 城市人口与服务业空间协同的多维机制: 以福建省为例[J]. 地理科学, 2021, 41(8): 1354-1363. DOI: 10.13249/j.cnki.sgs.2021.08.006.

基金资助

国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFF1304202)