京津冀地区降雨侵蚀力时空变化

Spatiotemporal variations of rainfall erosivity in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

摘要

为探究降雨对京津冀地区水土流失的影响机理，基于1961−2023年京津冀地区22个国家气象站的日雨量数据，采用半月侵蚀力模型计算降雨侵蚀力，结合Mann-Kendall非参数检验和Hurst指数等方法，分析不同量级降雨侵蚀力的时空变化特征，预估其未来变化趋势。结果表明：京津冀地区多年平均年降雨侵蚀力为3 452.73 MJ·mm/（hm²·h·a），呈现从东到西减小的分布特征。暴雨、大暴雨及特大暴雨等极端降雨事件虽然在京津冀地区发生频率低，但其形成的降雨总侵蚀力占年降雨总侵蚀力的87.52%，主导了区域降雨侵蚀力的时空变化格局，而且不同量级降雨侵蚀力的高值中心随降雨量级增大呈现“北移南抬”特征。未来趋势分析表明，太行山东麓河北省南部和燕山山脉地区的年降雨侵蚀力可能增加。研究结果可为水土流失动态监测和水土保持措施规划提供参考。

Abstract

The Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region faces significant challenges due to water scarcity and increased vulnerability to soil erosion as extreme rainfall events become more frequent. Understanding the spatiotemporal dynamics and future projections of rainfall erosivity is critical for effective water and soil conservation planning. This study was carried out to meet these needs by analyzing the characteristics and projecting future trends in rainfall erosivity in the area. Daily precipitation records from 22 national meteorological stations spanning the years 1961 to 2023, obtained from the National Meteorological Science Data Center, were utilized. The semi-monthly erosivity model was used to calculate rainfall erosivity over a range of intensity levels. Kriging interpolation was used to visualize spatial patterns of erosion. Linear regression analysis and the Mann-Kendall nonparametric test were used to assess temporal trends, including significant changes over the course of the study. The Hurst exponent, calculated fromR/S (rescaled range) analysis, was used to predict the future direction of erosivity trends. The contribution of different rainfall intensity categories to total annual erosivity was also quantified. The average annual precipitation for the region during the study period was found to be 532.45 mm, with significant spatial variation. With an average annual rainfall erosivity of 3,452.73 MJ·mm/(hm²·h·a), the distribution clearly decreased from east to west. Extreme rainfall events, which include heavy rain, downpour, and extremely heavy rain, were found to be rare, making up only 0.4% of rainy days per year. However, these intense events were responsible for the overwhelming majority of the annual erosivity, contributing 87.52%. The spatial configuration of high-value centers for erosivity displayed a distinct pattern correlated with intensity. As rainfall intensity increased, the high-value centers showed a propensity for a "northward shift and southward uplift". Specifically, the center for moderate rain erosivity was located primarily in the plains around Baoding and along the Yanshan Mountains near Chengde, whereas the centers for downpour and above were centered around Qinglong and Laoting within the Yanshan Mountains, with significant increases also occurring for extremely heavy rain erosivity along the eastern foothills of the Taihang Mountains in Shijiazhuang and Xingtai. According to the Hurst exponent trend analysis, 36.36% of stations are expected to see an increase in annual rainfall erosivity in the future. This positive trend was found to be concentrated mainly in the southern Hebei area along the eastern foothills of the Taihang Mountains, particularly in Shijiazhuang and Xingtai, and in areas along the Yanshan Mountains such as Qinglong. Given that extreme rainfall events were identified as the dominant driver of regional erosivity and considering the projected increase in precipitation and extreme events in the Haihe River basin under climate change scenarios, the overall erosive force of rainfall in the region is expected to intensify. Additionally, it was observed that mountainous areas experience more intense rainfall-induced erosion than plain areas. There is significant spatiotemporal heterogeneity in rainfall erosivity across the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region, with extreme rainfall events accounting for the majority of the contributions despite their low frequency. The findings highlight an imminent increase in soil erosion potential, particularly in the Taihang and Yanshan mountainous zones, where erosive intensity is naturally higher. As a result, it is recommended that greater emphasis be placed on improving dynamic monitoring systems for soil erosion in these critical mountainous areas. Urgent attention and tailored water and soil conservation measures, specifically designed to mitigate the impacts of intense rainfall events, should be prioritized in these projected high-risk zones identified by the analysis. This study provides an important scientific foundation for improving regional strategies for preventing and controlling soil and water erosion.

关键词

降雨侵蚀力 / Mann-Kendall检验 / Hurst指数 / 时空分布 / 京津冀地区

Key words

rainfall erosivity / Mann-Kendall test / Hurst exponent / spatiotemporal distribution / Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region

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基金资助

国家自然科学基金项目(42201126)

国家自然科学基金项目(52409041)

天津市生态清洁小流域调查、类型划分及评价项目(DC2025L006)