基于HEC-HMS与HEC-RAS水文水动力耦合的典型山洪区洪涝模拟

Flood simulation in typical mountain torrent areas using integrated HEC-HMS and HEC-RAS hydrologic-hydrodynamic modeling

摘要

为提升北京市防灾减灾救灾能力，聚焦山洪灾害风险识别、风险研判和风险管控，以北京市典型山洪区漫水河流域及典型山洪沟道大安山沟为研究对象，构建基于水文工程中心水文建模系统（Hydrologic Engineering Center-hydrologic modeling system，HEC-HMS）与河流分析系统（Hydrologic Engineering Center-river analysis system，HEC-RAS）的水文水动力耦合模型，并在不同情景下对降雨径流过程和洪涝淹没情况进行模拟评估。结果表明：HEC-HMS模型在漫水河流域的产汇流模拟中精度较高，率定期与验证期的平均洪峰误差分别为16.0%和11.0%，纳什系数均在0.80左右，在海河“23·7”流域性特大洪水（简称“23·7”）模拟中，流域内22个山洪沟道的平均洪峰流量误差为13.5%；HEC-RAS模型在“23·7”洪水淹没模拟中表现良好，大安山沟模拟淹没边界与实测洪痕最大偏离约25%；随着降雨重现期的增加，漫水河流域和大安山沟的洪峰流量均显著提升，且峰现时间均提前约1 h；大安山沟主沟道下游为淹没模拟中的主要受灾区，应加强管控。研究成果可为典型山洪区的风险识别、预警研判及防洪工程规划提供科学依据。

Abstract

Beijing has experienced frequent heavy rainfall events, resulting in repeated mountain flood disasters that have trapped people, damaged village homes, and caused significant erosion and sedimentation in river channels. A comprehensive methodology was used to improve the capital's disaster prevention, mitigation, and relief capacity, with a focus on risk identification, assessment, management, and response to mountain flood disasters. For the Manshuihe basin, a typical mountain flood-prone area in Beijing, and its representative gully, Da'anshan Gully, a partition-driven coupled hydrological-hydraulic model based on HEC-HMS (Hydrologic Engineering Center-hydrologic modeling system) and HEC-RAS (Hydrologic Engineering Center-river analysis system) was built. The HEC-HMS model was calibrated and validated using measured rainfall and flow data; evaluation indicators included peak flow, runoff depth, Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency, and time to peak. The HEC-RAS model was validated using measured flood marks. Multiple scenarios with varying rainfall return periods were created to simulate and assess rainfall-runoff processes and flood inundation conditions. The HEC-HMS model's average peak flow errors during calibration and validation were 16% and 11%, respectively, while its average runoff depth errors were 20% and 9.5%. The Nash-Sutcliffe efficiency values remained near 0.80. During the simulation of the Haihe "23·7" basin-wide extreme flood, the average peak flow error for 22 mountain flood channels was 13.5%. In the Haihe "23·7" basin-wide extreme flood inundation simulation of the Da'anshan Gully, the HEC-RAS model demonstrated high accuracy, with a maximum deviation of approximately 25% between the simulated inundation extent and the observed flood marks. As the rainfall return period increased from 10 to 100 years, the peak flow of the Manshuihe basin and the Da'anshan Gully increased by about 3.6 and 4.6 times, respectively, while the time to peak advanced by one hour in both cases. The most significant inundation was observed in the downstream area of the main channel after confluence with tributaries. The partition-driven hydrological-hydraulic coupled model based on HEC-HMS and HEC-RAS showed high reliability and applicability in flood simulation in the study area. Its accuracy in simulating peak flow, runoff depth, and flood hydrograph shape under extreme rainfall was validated by calibration and validation. In the Manshuihe basin, the model can offer scientific and technical assistance for risk assessment and early warning of mountain floods.

关键词

山洪灾害 / 水文水动力耦合模型 / HEC-HMS / HEC-RAS / 漫水河流域

Key words

mountain flood disaster / hydrologic-hydrodynamic coupling model / HEC-HMS / HEC-RAS / Manshuihe basin

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基金资助

京津冀环境综合治理国家科技重大专项项目(2025ZD1201400)

河北省重大科技支撑计划项目(242S4201Z)