沂沭河流域“8·14”洪水模拟及下排调度方案比较

Simulation and downstream dispatching scheme comparison for the "8·14" flood in Yishu River basin

摘要

为科学评估沂沭河流域防洪调度效益，以2020年“8·14”场次洪水为例，构建基于新安江与IFMS模型的链式水文-水动力耦合模型。针对长距离洪水演进中产汇流误差随流程持续累积、导致下游调度边界失真的痛点，该模型通过在分洪调度前引入临沂和重沟站实测流量作为衔接边界，将临沂和重沟下游分洪前的洪量误差分别从54.93%和72.96%大幅降至5.73%和14.29%，显著提升复杂调度模拟的可靠性。研究共设置4种情景对比发现：若不实施任何调度，下游局部断面存在较重漫溢风险；全力东调方案虽能大幅缓解沂河行洪压力，但易导致分沂入沭水道发生漫溢；规则调度在各河道水位控制上表现较为均衡；实际调度综合规则和南下2种策略，实现流域内主要行洪河道基本无漫溢的良好防洪效果。研究成果可为沂沭河流域后续防洪工程规划、优化设计及科学调度决策提供重要参考。

Abstract

The Yishu River basin has steep upstream topography and rapid concentration, making them particularly vulnerable to severe flash floods during extreme storm events. Although an engineering system encompassing upstream reservoirs and downstream floodways has been established, determining the best discharge dispatching scheme remains a critical challenge, exacerbated by the conflict between river conveyance capacities and reservoir storage risks. During long-distance routing, traditional integrated hydrological-hydrodynamic models frequently experience continuous error accumulation, which significantly distorts downstream boundary conditions and misleads collaborative dispatching evaluations. Therefore, a high-precision modeling approach is crucial to remove simulation distortions and assess the advantages of intricate downstream operational strategies in a scientific manner. This study developed a chained hydrological-hydrodynamic coupled model that combines the three-source Xin'anjiang model with the integrated flood management system 1D hydrodynamic module to simulate the typical "8·14" extreme flood in 2020. To address the critical issue of error accumulation, an innovative chained mechanism was implemented. The basin was segmented into upper and lower sections anchored by the Linyi and Chonggou key stations. The observed flow discharges from these two stations were specifically included as transitional boundaries just before downstream diversion calculations, rather than full-process simulations. Four scenarios were developed to compare water level evolution and overtopping risks under various downstream strategies: no dispatching, actual dispatching, full eastward diversion, and rule-based dispatch. Validation results demonstrated that the chained approach successfully eliminated upstream cumulative errors, providing highly reliable hydrodynamic inputs for downstream sections. The chained model significantly decreased flood volume errors prior to diversion at the Linyi and Chonggou sections from 54.93% and 72.96% to 5.73% and 14.29%, respectively, when compared to full-process hydrological simulation. Significant differences in hydraulic control were found between the four schemes. Under the no-dispatching scenario, the downstream channels faced extreme pressure, causing an overtopping height of 1.18 m at a Shuhe section. The full eastward diversion scheme relieved the Yihe River but forced multiple sections of the Yi-to-Shu Floodway to overflow while generating a severe peak inflow of 6,844.39 m³/s at Shilianghe Reservoir, approaching its regulatory limit. The rule-based scheme provided balanced water level control but lacked flexibility against extreme peaks. In contrast, the actual dispatching scheme successfully mitigated overtopping risks across all backbone channels by dynamically coordinating rule-based and southward policies. The suggested chained hydrological-hydrodynamic coupled model provides a reliable tool for simulating intricate hydraulic interactions and gate dispatching in interconnected river systems by successfully removing the negative effects of long-distance routing errors. Comparative analysis indicates that the actual integrated dispatching strategy achieves the optimal flood control outcome for the Yishu River basin. The actual scheme restricted the peak inflows of Luoma Lake and Shilianghe Reservoir to safe levels of 6,380.19 m³/s and 6,102.23 m³/s, respectively, by prioritizing the southward discharge for the Yihe River and utilizing both the eastward and southward potentials for the Shuhe River. This approach effectively accomplishes cooperative peak shaving and refined risk allocation, offering crucial scientific references for upcoming flood control planning and intelligent dispatching choices.

关键词

沂沭河流域 / “8·14”洪水 / 洪水模拟 / 水文-水动力耦合 / 调度分析

Key words

Yishu River basin / "8·14" flood / flood simulation / hydrologic-hydrodynamic coupling / dispatching analysis

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基金资助

国家重点研发计划项目(2024YFC3012302)