南水北调中线冰期输水水温滚动预报

Rolling forecast of water temperature for ice-period water conveyance in the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Transfers Project

摘要

为将明渠水温预报切实转化为南水北调中线工程冬季防凌调度与安全输水的可靠基础，亟须构建适用于复杂输水系统的精准水温预报模型。基于一维水体热力学能量平衡原理，构建适应长距离输水渠道特性的冰期水温滚动预报模型。该模型综合考虑气象、水力及热力因子，并引入参数实时滚动修正机制，利用最新实测水温与气温数据对模型关键参数进行动态率定。以2024−2025年冰期滹沱河倒虹吸、岗头隧洞及北拒马河暗渠段为研究对象，开展水温模拟与预报检验。结果表明：模型在短期（5 d）预报中精度较高，平均绝对误差约为1.0 ℃；中长期（20～60 d）预报误差约为1.5～3.3 ℃，具备较好的实用性；参数滚动修正机制能有效降低累积误差，显著提升预报精度；中线干渠水温随气温变化呈现显著的“先降后升”季节性趋势及昼夜周期性波动特征，气温是影响水温演变的主导因子。该方法可为寒区长距离调水工程的冰期优化调度提供科学依据。

Abstract

The Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Transfers Project is critical to resolving northern China's severe water shortages. However, operating such a large project presents significant challenges during the winter season. The ability to predict water temperature variations quickly and accurately along the extensive and hydraulically complex open channels is a critical technical challenge for intelligent scheduling and for improving winter water conveyance capacity. Predicting water temperature in the main canal of the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Transfers Project provides the foundation for winter ice-prevention scheduling and for ensuring safe water delivery. As a result, developing a precise water-temperature forecasting model for complex water conveyance systems is viewed as critical to the successful winter operation and dynamic scheduling of similar large-scale water network projects. A rolling forecast model for water temperature during the ice period was proposed and constructed based on the fundamental principle of one-dimensional water thermodynamic energy balance. The model was specifically designed to accommodate the unique characteristics of long-distance water conveyance channels. A wide range of influencing factors was incorporated into the model, including meteorological conditions, hydraulic parameters, and thermal factors. To improve adaptability, a real-time rolling correction mechanism for model parameters was implemented. The model's key parameters were dynamically calibrated using the latest measured data on water and air temperatures. Drawing on the concept of data-driven modeling, a parameter-fitting method was employed to estimate five parameters derived from the canal pool's historical water temperature, the current air temperature, the water body volume, and the water conveyance flow rate. The Hutuo River inverted siphon, the Gangtou tunnel, and the Beijuma River culvert sections were selected as the specific research objects. Water temperature simulation and forecast verification were conducted for the ice period from December 6, 2024 to March 1, 2025. The proposed model's control equation explicitly incorporated the water body's energy conservation principle, in which the change in water temperature per unit time is closely correlated with the heat entering and released by the water body. The simulation and calculation results indicated that the proposed model was highly accurate for short-term forecasting (defined as five days), with an average error of about 1.0 ℃. For medium- and long-term forecasting (ranging from 20 to 60 days), the error was effectively controlled between 1.5 ℃ and 3.3 ℃, indicating substantial practicality for operational use. The rolling forecast mechanism greatly improved prediction accuracy and successfully reduced cumulative errors by fitting the model's five parameters using the most recent measured water and air temperatures. During winter, the overall water temperature in the Middle Route Project's main canal followed a clear seasonal pattern of an initial decrease followed by an increase. In addition, significant diurnal fluctuations in water temperature were observed. Air temperature was determined to be the dominant factor influencing the evolution of water temperature. The winter water temperature forecast for the Middle Route of the South-to-North Water Transfers Project is critical for preventing ice floods, mitigating disasters, and ensuring water safety. Establishing a precise water temperature forecasting model supports the dynamic water conveyance scheduling of backbone water network projects during winter. The proposed method, which integrates the energy conservation principle with a rolling-parameter correction mechanism, has proven effective. This approach provides a scientific basis for optimized scheduling during the ice period of long-distance water transfer projects in cold regions. Furthermore, the model can be generalized and applied to predict water temperature in other rivers, canals, and reservoirs, thereby contributing to the broader field of hydraulic engineering and water resource management.

关键词

滚动预报 / 水温计算 / 南水北调中线工程 / 冰期输水 / 昼夜波动

Key words

rolling forecast / water temperature calculation / Middle Route of South-to-North Water Transfers Project / delivery in ice-period / diurnal cyclical fluctuation

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基金资助

国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3202500)

国家自然科学基金项目(U2243221)

国家自然科学基金项目(U2243239)

国家自然科学基金项目(U2443221)

国家自然科学基金项目(52479080)

中国水科院科研专项项目(HY0145B032021)

流域水循环与水安全全国重点实验室资助项目(SKL2025RCPY04)