金沙江中游龙头水库对南水北调东线工程水量与水质影响

Impacts of the leading reservoir in the middle Jinsha River on water quantity and water quality of the East Route of the South-to-North Water Transfers Project

摘要

为保障跨流域调水工程运行安全、充分发挥其对受水区缺水的缓解作用，形成大型调节水库联合调度对调水水量和水质安全作用的统一分析框架。以金沙江中游龙头水库参与调度条件下的南水北调东线工程为研究对象，构建“上游梯级联合调度-河床演变-取水口水量水质-受水区响应”的综合分析方法，在典型特枯水年量化评估其对工程取水、供水保障及水质的影响。结果显示：龙头水库可使取水口年可取水量增加21亿～38亿m³，年取水保障程度提升15%～31%至100%；受水区年缺水量减少64%～87%，非汛期水质同步改善，取水口及沿线湖泊污染物质量浓度分别下降5%～6%、3.4%～8.4%。研究表明，龙头水库可显著提升东线工程水安全，该方法无需高维精细模型即可揭示“上游调节改变取水条件，进而改善供水能力和水质”的作用机制，为同类工程调度管理提供参考。

Abstract

Large interbasin water diversion projects heavily rely on downstream intake restrictions and upstream flow regulation for operational security, particularly during droughts and non-flood seasons. Although large multi-year regulation reservoirs are increasingly involved in basin-wide joint operations, there is still a lack of a unified framework for quantifying their combined impacts on water quantity security and water quality responses in diversion systems. The purpose of this work is to clarify and quantify the role of the leading reservoir (middle Jinsha River, upper Yangtze Basin) in improving both water quantity reliability and water quality conditions on the South-to-North Water Transfers Project's East Route. An integrated analytical framework was developed by including cascade joint reservoir operation, a one-dimensional hydrodynamic-water quality model incorporating riverbed evolution effects, intake constraints at key control sections, water resources allocation in receiving areas, and water quality responses along connected lakes. Two representative dry hydrological years (2006 and 2022) were examined under scenarios with and without leading reservoir regulation, focusing on annual and seasonal characteristics, particularly the non-flood season. Under drought conditions, the regulation scenario significantly improved diversion intake capability and reliability, with the benefits concentrated during the non-flood season when natural runoff was insufficient. The diversion intake produced an increase of about 2.1 to 3.8 billion m ³ in annual available intake relative to the measured condition, and annual intake assurance was increased by 15 to 31 percentage points to achieve full assurance. Shortages in receiving areas were correspondingly alleviated, with annual water shortages reduced by 64% to 87%, indicating that the upstream regulation benefit was effectively transmitted through the diversion-allocation chain rather than remaining a local improvement at the intake section. Water quality co-benefits were also demonstrated. During the non-flood season, mass concentrations of the permanganate index, ammonia nitrogen, and total phosphorus at the diversion intake were generally reduced by about 5% to 6% under the regulation scenario compared with the scenario without leading reservoir regulation, consistent with strengthened hydrodynamic exchange and dilution capacity associated with regulated releases. Along connected lakes, clearer seasonal responses were identified: non-flood-season pollutant mass concentration reductions ranged from 3.4% to 8.4%, reflecting the greater vulnerability of lake water quality under low-water-level and weak-exchange conditions, as well as the higher marginal effectiveness of additional regulated inflow during this period. These findings showed that the leading reservoir's multi-year regulation capacity provided critical support for stabilizing diversion operations during droughts by improving intake feasibility, increasing receiving-area supply reliability, and mitigating non-flood-season water quality risk. Beyond reporting isolated improvements, the integrated framework was shown to be capable of quantitatively characterizing the transmission mechanism whereby upstream regulation altered downstream intake conditions and subsequently improved supply performance and water quality responses, without reliance on high-dimensional fine-resolution models. The proposed approach, therefore, offered a practical and mechanism-based basis for coordinated operation and management of comparable interbasin water diversion projects subject to strong intake constraints and seasonal water quality sensitivity.

关键词

金沙江中游龙头水库 / 南水北调东线工程 / 水量 / 水质 / 梯级水库调度 / 供水安全

Key words

leading reservoir on the Jinsha River / East Route of the South-to-North Water Transfers Project / water quantity / water quality / cascade reservoir operation / water supply security

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基金资助

国家重点研发计划项目(2022YFC3201804)