1960−2024 年长江流域高温与干旱事件同步特征

Synchronous characteristics of heat and drought events in the Yangtze River basin from 1960 to 2024

摘要

为揭示全球气候变暖背景下长江流域不同等级高温与干旱复合极端事件的时空分异性演变规律，利用1960−2024 年长江流域月降水量和月平均气温观测数据，采用标准化降水指数及标准化温度指数识别干旱与高温事件，通过 Pettitt 突变检验划分气候背景时段，结合事件同步法，从同步频次、强度与时滞 3 个维度，解析近 65 a长江流域各省高温与干旱事件同步性的时空分布与演变规律。结果表明：1996−2024 年长江流域高温干旱事件同步频次明显上升（与 1960−1995 年相比），江苏、上海、云南增幅达 49%～59%，复合事件群发风险加剧；流域整体同步强度呈上升态势，极端高温干旱事件同步强度存在明显空间分异，中下游增幅明显高于西南地区，风险增长更为突出；同步时序模式由高温先于干旱向二者趋于同步转变，同步时滞明显缩短，仅下游部分区域仍维持高温领先特征。长江流域高温干旱同步性存在清晰阶段性演变特征，可为流域尺度复合极端事件风险识别与适应性管理提供参考。

Abstract

The frequency and severity of extreme weather events have been found to significantly increase under global climate change. Concurrent heat and drought events, in particular, pose severe threats to the Yangtze River basin's ecosystem, agricultural production, and social economy. Previous research focused primarily on individual heat or drought events, leaving little understanding of the two events' synchronous evolutionary characteristics, particularly their phased changes in frequency, intensity, and time lag. Therefore, studying the spatiotemporal evolution of synchronization between heat and drought events in the Yangtze River basin is extremely important. Clarifying the long-term phased evolution patterns of heat-drought synchronization is crucial for improving regional risk prevention capabilities and formulating scientific adaptive management strategies is crucial. The Climatic Research Unit Time Series version 4.09 dataset provided monthly precipitation and mean temperature data from 1960 to 2024 with a spatial resolution of 0.5°×0.5°. The standardized precipitation index and the standardized temperature index were used to identify drought and heat events, respectively. Drought events were defined as index values less than or equal to −0.5, while heat events were defined as index values greater than or equal to 0.5. The Pettitt's test was used to detect abrupt changes in temperature and precipitation series, with 1996 serving as the climatic turning point, dividing the study period into two sub-periods: 1960-1995 and 1996-2024. The event synchronization method was used to quantify the synchronicity between heat and drought events based on three core aspects: synchronization frequency (standardized as the count of events per decade), synchronization intensity (ranging from 0 to 1, with higher values indicating tighter coupling), and synchronization time delay (ranging from −1 to 1, where positive values denoted heat preceding drought and negative values denoted drought preceding heat). Eleven key provinces (municipalities) in the Yangtze River basin were examined further for spatial distributions and provincial comparisons. The synchronization frequency of heat and drought events increased dramatically after 1996 in the majority of the Yangtze River basin. The increase ranged from 49% to 59%, with significantly increased risks of compound events in Jiangsu, Shanghai, and Yunnan. However, synchronization frequency decreased by about 10.43% in Qinghai. The probability density distribution of synchronization frequency shifted to the right from 1960-1995 to 1996-2024, indicating an overall increase in synchronization levels. After 1996, there was a significant increase in the intensity of synchronization across all events, with Jiangsu and Shanghai showing the most notable increase of more than 20%. Yunnan maintained the highest synchronization intensity of any province, with average values of 0.53 and 0.56 for the two periods, respectively. When events of different severity levels were compared, distinct spatial patterns emerged. For mild events, an increase in synchronization intensity was mainly found in the lower reaches. The intensity of synchronization for moderate and severe events decreased in the majority of regions. Extreme events revealed a strong east-west divergence: the middle and lower reaches experienced a sharp increase in synchronization intensity, Anhui showed a 318.52% increase, and the southwestern region saw a significant decrease. A significant change was also observed in the synchronization time delay: heat events used to occur before drought events, but the two types of events gradually became nearly synchronous. The mean time delay approached zero in the second period, and a shortened temporal lag was implied. The lower reaches, including Jiangsu and Shanghai, maintained the pattern where heat events preceded drought events, while the upstream region showed the most noticeable decrease in time delay. This study revealed phased evolutionary characteristics of heat and drought synchronization in the Yangtze River basin from 1960 to 2024. The findings confirmed that following the climatic shift around 1996, synchronization frequency, intensity, and the tendency to occur nearly simultaneously all increased significantly across the basin. The middle and lower reaches were identified as new sensitive areas with rapidly increasing compound disaster risks, particularly during extreme events. The spatial heterogeneity and severity-dependent patterns found are a scientific reference for the identification, early warning, and risk assessment of compound heat-drought events in the Yangtze River basin.

关键词

气候变化 / 极端气候事件 / 干旱 / 高温 / 长江流域

Key words

climate change / extreme climate event / drought / heat / Yangtze River basin

参考文献

[1] Hao Zengchao, Hao Fanghua, Xia Youlong, et al. Compound droughts and hot extremes: Characteristics, drivers, changes, and impacts[J]. Earth-Science Reviews, 2022, 235: 104241. DOI: 10.1016/j.earscirev.2022.104241.

[2] 周波涛, 钱进. IPCC AR6 报告解读: 极端天气气候事件变化[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2021, 17(6): 713-718. DOI: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2021.167.

[3] 王倩, 翟盘茂, 张强. 1961 年以来中国区域性气候与极端事件变化格局[J]. 气象学报, 2025, 83(4): 980-989. DOI: 10.11676/qxxb2025.20240143.

[4] 袁宇锋, 廖圳, 周佰铨, 等. 全球气候变暖加剧背景下中国高影响区域性极端事件及归因研究进展[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2025, 21(1): 44-55. DOI: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2024.260.

[5] 舒章康, 李文鑫, 张建云, 等. 中国极端降水和高温历史变化及未来趋势[J]. 中国工程科学, 2022, 24(5): 116-125. DOI: 10.15302/J-SSCAE-2022.05.014.

[6] Yao Ying, Fu Bojie, Liu Yanxu, et al. Compound hot-dry events greatly prolong the recovery time of dryland ecosystems[J]. National Science Review, 2024, 11(10): nwae274. DOI: 10.1093/nsr/nwae274.

[7] 徐慧, 江善虎, 任立良, 等. 气候变化背景下赣江流域复合高温干旱事件时空演变特征[J]. 水利水电技术（中英文）, 2024, 55(4): 1-11. DOI: 10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2024.04.001.

[8] 郝增超, 陈阳. 地球系统视角下的多圈层复合极端事件研究进展与展望[J]. 中国科学: 地球科学, 2024, 54(2): 360-393. DOI: 10.1360/SSTe-2023-0060.

[9] 夏军. 变化环境下长江流域滨海城市供水安全与适应性对策[J]. 南水北调与水利科技（中英文）, 2024, 22(2): 209-214. DOI: 10.13476/j.cnki.nsbdqk.2024.0022.

[10] 姜雨彤, 郝增超, 冯思芳, 等. 长江与黄河流域复合高温干旱事件时空演变特征[J]. 水资源保护, 2023, 39(2): 70-77. DOI: 10.3880/j.issn.1004-6933.2023.02.009.

[11] 武新英, 郝增超, 张璇, 等. 中国夏季复合高温干旱分布及变异趋势[J]. 水利水电技术（中英文）, 2021, 52(12): 90-98. DOI: 10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2021.12.009.

[12] Liu Zejin, Jiao Limin, Lian Xihong. Impacts of increasing compound hot-dry events on vegetation under the warming-wetting trend in northwest China[J]. Geography and Sustainability, 2025, 6(2): 100222. DOI: 10.1016/j.geosus.2024.08.003.

[13] 卫仁娟, 潘妮, 钟馨, 等. 四川省极端高温干旱复合事件变化特征研究[J]. 水文, 2024, 44(6): 60-67. DOI: 10.19797/j.cnki.1000-0852.20230401.

[14] 张义桐, 郝增超, 陈阳, 等. 全球多时间尺度复合高温干旱增加[J]. 中国科学: 地球科学, 2025, 55(10): 3321-3332. DOI: 10.1360/N072024-0363.

[15] 回佩晨, 徐旻天, 时延锋, 等. 1977−2020 年沂蒙山区极端气温时空变化特征分析[J]. 水利水电技术（中英文）, 2024, 55(5): 15-28. DOI: 10.13928/j.cnki.wrahe.2024.05.002.

[16] An Xuehua, Sun Shanlei, Ma Qianrong, et al. Elucidating the varied characteristics of compound hot-drought from two distinctive extreme events in the Yangtze River valley[J]. International Journal of Climatology, 2025, 45(7): e8809. DOI: 10.1002/joc.8809.

[17] 俞昕, 张琪, 杨再强, 等. 基于 Copula 函数分析华北地区年高温干旱复合事件发生特征[J]. 中国农业气象, 2023, 44(8): 695-706. DOI: 10.3969/j.issn.1000-6362.2023.08.005.

[18] Yang Jianhua, Zhou Lei, Wu Jianjun, et al. Effects of anthropogenic climate change on the compound drought and heat events in different agricultural regions of China[J]. Ecological Indicators, 2024, 167: 112719. DOI: 10.1016/j.ecolind.2024.112719.

[19] 王荣, 赵珊珊, 陈鲜艳. 1961−2022 年三峡地区复合高温干旱事件气候变化特征[J]. 地球物理学报, 2026, 69(1): 46-54. DOI: 10.6038/cjg2025T0004.

[20] 郝增超, 张璇, 郝芳华, 等. 2022 年夏季长江流域复合高温干旱事件的影响及应对[J]. 水资源保护, 2023, 39(6): 46-52. DOI: 10.3880/j.issn.1004-6933.2023.06.007.

[21] 张仪萱, 王怡璇, 刘廷玺, 等. 半干旱草原内陆河流域复合干热气候特征及其植被响应[J]. 中国草地学报, 2025, 47(2): 8-20. DOI: 10.16742/j.zgcdxb.20240329.

[22] 梅梅, 高歌, 李莹, 等. 1961−2022 年长江流域高温干旱复合极端事件变化特征[J]. 人民长江, 2023, 54(2): 12-20. DOI: 10.16232/j.cnki.1001-4179.2023.02.003.

[23] 郑博福, 肖德利, 万炜, 等. 长江流域干旱评估指标、时空特征及成因研究进展[J]. 水资源保护, 2024, 40(5): 18-28. DOI: 10.3880/j.issn.1004-6933.2024.05.003.

[24] 向大享, 姜莹, 陈喆, 等. 基于 SPI 和 VHI 的长江中下游地区干旱时空特征分析[J]. 长江科学院院报, 2024, 41(3): 153-159. DOI: 10.11988/ckyyb.20230196.

[25] 张蕾, 钱拴, 曹云, 等. 2022 年南方高温干旱特点及其对植被净初级生产力的影响[J]. 生态学杂志, 2024, 43(7): 2182-2188. DOI: 10.13292/j.1000-4890.202407.043.

[26] 夏军, 陈进, 佘敦先. 2022 年长江流域极端干旱事件及其影响与对策[J]. 水利学报, 2022, 53(10): 1143-1153. DOI: 10.13243/j.cnki.slxb.20220730.

[27] 李喆, 崔长露, 向大享, 等. 2022 年长江流域夏秋干旱事件回顾与应对思考[J]. 南水北调与水利科技（中英文）, 2026, 24(2): 356-363. DOI: 10.13476/j.cnki.nsbdqk.2026.0034.

[28] 冯宝飞, 邱辉, 纪国良. 2022 年夏季长江流域气象干旱特征及成因初探[J]. 人民长江, 2022, 53(12): 6-15. DOI: 10.16232/j.cnki.1001-4179.2022.12.002.

[29] Xing Lisong, Zhao Ruxin, Sun Hongquan, et al. Propagation patterns of different degree meteorological droughts across the Yangtze River basin: A three-dimensional drought feature identification approach with Copula modeling[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2025, 662: 133857. DOI: 10.1016/j.jhydrol.2025.133857.

[30] 周波涛, 涂雁冰, 谢文欣, 等. 长江流域群发性高温事件变化: 观测与预估[J]. 大气科学学报, 2026, 49(1): 43-52. DOI: 10.13878/j.cnki.dqkxxb.20251115007.

[31] 孙亚卿, 李春, 石剑. 长江流域夏季极端高温的年代际变化特征及其与大西洋多年代际振荡的关系[J]. 中国海洋大学学报（自然科学版）, 2022, 52(2): 13-22. DOI: 10.16441/j.cnki.hdxb.20210079.

[32] 彭京备, 孙淑清, 林大伟. 2022 年 8 月长江流域持续性极端高温事件成因[J]. 应用气象学报, 2023, 34(5): 527-539. DOI: 10.11898/1001-7313.20230502.

[33] 杨肖丽, 崔周宇, 任立良, 等. 1966−2015 年长江流域水文干旱时空演变归因[J]. 水科学进展, 2023, 34(3): 349-359. DOI: 10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2023.03.003.

[34] 吴志勇, 施怡然, 刘杨合, 等. 长江流域干旱形成演变机制与预测研究进展[J]. 人民长江, 2025, 56(10): 166-174. DOI: 10.16232/j.cnki.1001-4179.2025.10.023.

[35] 邓翠玲, 佘敦先, 张利平, 等. 基于图像三维连通性识别方法的长江流域干旱事件特征[J]. 农业工程学报, 2021, 37(11): 131-139. DOI: 10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.2021.11.015.

[36] 朱世峰, 王卫光, 丁一民, 等. 基于 CMIP6 的长江中下游未来水稻高温热害时空变化特征[J]. 农业工程学报, 2023, 39(3): 113-122. DOI: 10.11975/j.issn.1002-6819.202210077.

[37] 靖娟利, 刘癸良, 王永锋, 等. 2001−2022 年长江流域极端气候演变及其对植被 NDVI 的影响[J]. 环境科学, 2026, 47(6): 3770-3783.

[38] 汪德根, 翟云利, 赵美风, 等. 长江经济带城市群城市关联网络格局及影响机制: 基于高铁站区承接企业视角[J]. 地理研究, 2024, 43(12): 3191-3214. DOI: 10.11821/dlyj020240078.

[39] 郭家力, 丁光旭, 杨旭, 等. 多源卫星降水产品在长江流域的时空精度对比[J]. 南水北调与水利科技（中英文）, 2022, 20(2): 230-242. DOI: 10.13476/j.cnki.nsbdqk.2022.0025.

[40] Harris I, Osborn T J, Jones P, et al. Version 4 of the CRU TS monthly high-resolution gridded multivariate climate dataset[J]. Scientific Data, 2020, 7(1): 109. DOI: 10.1038/s41597-020-0453-3.

[41] 熊少堂, 赵铜铁钢, 郭成超, 等. 我国各大流域复合高温干旱事件变化趋势与归因分析[J]. 中国科学: 地球科学, 2024, 54(1): 83-96. DOI: 10.1360/SSTe-2022-0414.

[42] 闻新宇, 王绍武, 朱锦红, 等. 英国 CRU 高分辨率格点资料揭示的 20 世纪中国气候变化[J]. 大气科学, 2006, 30(5): 894-904. DOI: 10.3878/j.issn.1006-9895.2006.05.18.

[43] 温婷婷, 郭英香, 董少睿, 等. 1979−2017 年 CRU, ERA5, CMFD 格点降水数据在青藏高原适用性评估[J]. 干旱区研究, 2022, 39(3): 684-697. DOI: 10.13866/j.azr.2022.03.03.

[44] 魏萌, 舒启, 宋振亚, 等. CMIP6 气候模式对 21 世纪初全球增暖减缓现象模拟能力评估与归因分析[J]. 中国科学: 地球科学, 2021, 51(6): 947-961. DOI: 10.1360/N072020-0268.

[45] 王毅, 张晓美, 周宁芳, 等. 1990−2019 年全球气象水文灾害演变特征[J]. 大气科学学报, 2021, 44(4): 496-506. DOI: 10.13878/j.cnki.dqkxxb.20210107001.

[46] Alahacoon N, Edirisinghe M. A comprehensive assessment of remote sensing and traditional based drought monitoring indices at global and regional scale[J]. Geomatics, Natural Hazards and Risk, 2022, 13(1): 762-799. DOI: 10.1080/19475705.2022.2044394.

[47] 李琼芳, 方凯悦, 韩幸烨, 等. 基于多维 Copula 函数的澜沧江-湄公河流域气象干旱特征分析[J]. 水资源保护, 2024, 40(1): 52-59. DOI: 10.3880/j.issn.1004-6933.2024.01.007.

[48] 王洁, 李王成, 李晨, 等. 基于 SPI 指数的宁夏干旱特征[J]. 南水北调与水利科技（中英文）, 2021, 19(3): 528-538. DOI: 10.13476/j.cnki.nsbdqk.2021.0056.

[49] 张美娜, 王发信, 吕海深, 等. 标准化降水指数（SPI）和Z 指数在淮北平原适用性研究[J]. 节水灌溉, 2024(9): 82-88. DOI: 10.12396/jsgg.2024088.

[50] Gringorten I I. A plotting rule for extreme probability paper[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research, 1963, 68(3): 813-814. DOI: 10.1029/JZ068i003p00813.

[51] GB/T 20481−2017 气象干旱等级[S].

[52] Zhang Qi, Yu Xin, Qiu Rangjian, et al. Evolution, severity, and spatial extent of compound drought and heat events in north China based on Copula model[J]. Agricultural Water Management, 2022, 273: 107918. DOI: 10.1016/j.agwat.2022.107918.

[53] 乌日娜, 张海霞, 赵金名, 等. 基于气候情景的中国北方草原复合干热事件时空演变特征研究[J]. 生态学报, 2026, 46(9): 4865-4881. DOI: 10.20103/j.stxb.202507101805.

[54] 黄茂伟, 章红颖, 陈一鸣, 等. 干热复合事件对北半球植被的影响及时滞效应[J]. 地理学报, 2025, 80(11): 3058-3071. DOI: 10.11821/dlxb202511013.

[55] Quiroga R Q, Kreuz T, Grassberger P. Event synchronization: A simple and fast method to measure synchronicity and time delay patterns[J]. Physical Review E, 2002, 66(4): 041904. DOI: 10.1103/PhysRevE.66.041904.

[56] Tang Yu, Luo Ming, Wu Sijia, et al. Increasing synchrony of extreme heat and precipitation events under climate warming[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2025, 52(8): e2024GL113021. DOI: 10.1029/2024GL113021.

[57] He Wenyue, Chen Huopo. Shift in the relationship between summer extreme humid-heat events in eastern China and tropical sea surface temperature in the mid-1990s[J]. Geophysical Research Letters, 2025, 52(2): e2024GL112715. DOI: 10.1029/2024GL112715.

[58] 肖莺, 张俊, 杜良敏, 等. 长江流域夏季高温年代际变化季内非一致特征及其环流异常分析[J]. 气象, 2023, 49(9): 1119-1130. DOI: 10.7519/j.issn.1000-0526.2023.053102.

[59] 丁一汇, 柳艳菊, 徐影, 等. 全球气候变化的区域响应: 中国西北地区气候“暖湿化”趋势、成因及预估研究进展与展望[J]. 地球科学进展, 2023, 38(6): 551-562. DOI: 10.11867/j.issn.1001-8166.2023.027.

[60] 周建琴, 陶云, 符睿, 等. 云南 2020 年 4−6 月区域性气象干旱特征和成因分析[J]. 高原气象, 2024, 43(4): 1052-1063. DOI: 10.7522/j.issn.1000-0534.2023.00101.

[61] 杨瑀露, 陈杰. 长江与黄河流域复合型水文干旱-热浪事件空间分布特征及成因分析[J]. 水科学进展, 2026, 37(2): 247-261. DOI: 10.14042/j.cnki.32.1309.2026.02.005.

[62] 尹泽疆, 魏维, 杨崧. 北大西洋涛动和英国-鄂霍次克海走廊型遥相关对 2022 年盛夏长江中下游极端高温的影响[J]. 大气科学学报, 2023, 46(3): 345-353. DOI: 10.13878/j.cnki.dqkxxb.20230116013.

[63] 郝立生, 马宁, 何丽烨. 2022 年长江中下游夏季异常干旱高温事件之环流异常特征[J]. 干旱气象, 2022, 40(5): 721-732. DOI: 10.11755/j.issn.1006-7639(2022)-05-0721.

[64] 祝亚丽, 刘洋, 孔祥慧, 等. 中国高温、干旱及其复合事件的研究进展和展望[J]. 大气科学学报, 2025, 48(1): 26-36. DOI: 10.13878/j.cnki.dqkxxb.20240911002.

[65] 贺山峰, 柏钦冕, 李铮, 等. 近 60 年长江中下游地区热浪和干旱的时空关联特征[J]. 地理研究, 2025, 44(7): 1770-1785. DOI: 10.11821/dlyj020241155.

基金资助

国家自然科学青年基金项目(42307124)

国家自然科学青年基金项目(42501108)

应急管理部国家自然灾害防治研究院基本科研业务专项项目(ZDJ2025-57)