山西省“水-能-碳-经济”系统安全评价

Safety evaluation of the "Water-Energy-Carbon-Economy" system in Shanxi Province

摘要

山西省作为典型高耗能、高排放且水资源短缺的地区，在“双碳”战略与水资源刚性约束并存的背景下，为评估其“水-能-碳-经济”（water-energy-carbon-economy，WECE）系统耦合机理与安全水平，在揭示山西省自然与经济碳排放时空演变特征的基础上，量化水-碳协同效应并利用超效率SBM（super-efficiency slacks-based measure）模型测算城市碳排放效率，构建未确知测度模型评价WECE系统安全状态并识别关键制约因子。结果表明：2005−2020年山西省自然碳汇持续增强，由176.99万t增至253.24万t，林地为主导因素；经济碳排放以煤炭消费为主，2015−2020年在能源与产业结构优化驱动下总体下降5.38%；碳水系数于2010年前后达峰，随后显著回落并趋稳，水-碳协同效应日益改善；碳排放效率总体上升，大同、太原、晋城等城市受规模与技术进步驱动表现较优；WECE系统安全水平由“中等”提升至“良好”，经济子系统进步最显著（2022年综合评价值达0.73），能源子系统稳步改善，水资源与碳排放子系统缓步提升，系统间差距逐渐收敛。研究可为山西省节水减碳与高质量发展的政策制定提供量化支撑与科学依据。

Abstract

Shanxi Province was identified as a typical region with high energy consumption, high emissions, and severe water scarcity while implementing the national "dual-carbon" strategy. The coupling mechanism and security level of the "water-energy-carbon-economy" (WECE) system, therefore, needed systematic evaluation. This study was carried out to reveal the spatiotemporal evolution of both natural and economic carbon emissions in Shanxi Province, quantify the water-carbon synergy, and assess the overall safety of the WECE system in order to provide quantitative support for water-saving, carbon-reducing, and high-quality development policies. Carbon emissions from natural and economic sources were examined between 2005 and 2020. To quantify the synergistic effect between water use and carbon emissions, the water-carbon coefficient was calculated. The carbon emission efficiency at the city level was estimated using the super-efficiency slack-based measure model. An undetermined measure model was then developed to assess the security status of the WECE system and identify major limiting factors among its subsystems of water, energy, carbon, and economy. Natural carbon sinks in Shanxi Province were discovered to have steadily increased from approximately 2.8 million tonnes to nearly 4 million tonnes, primarily due to forestland. The optimization of the energy and industrial structures resulted in a 5% reduction in economic carbon emissions, which were primarily caused by coal consumption, between 2015 and 2020. The water-carbon coefficient peaked at about 2010 and then gradually decreased, indicating that the synergy between carbon and water is getting better. Carbon emission efficiency increased overall, with Datong, Taiyuan, and Jincheng performing better as a result of scale expansion and technological progress. The overall security of the WECE system improved from "medium" to "good". The economic subsystem improved the most, with its comprehensive evaluation value reaching approximately 0.73 by 2022. The energy subsystem improved steadily, while the water resource and carbon subsystems advanced more slowly, and the gaps among subsystems gradually narrowed. The findings suggested that Shanxi Province's water, energy, carbon, and economic systems were better coordinated. Natural carbon sinks were strengthened, and industrial and energy structures were optimized, resulting in improved carbon efficiency and system safety. Economic progress and technological advancement served as the primary driving forces, while water scarcity and carbon intensity remained major constraints. The study provided quantitative evidence and a scientific foundation for developing integrated policies on water conservation, carbon reduction, and sustainable high-quality development in resource-constrained regions.

关键词

水资源 / 能源消耗 / 碳排放 / 碳水协同 / 系统安全评价

Key words

water resource / energy consumption / carbon emission / carbon water synergy / system security evaluation

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基金资助

国家自然科学基金项目(52279005)

国家重点研发计划项目(2023YFC3205601)

广东省哲学社会科学规划资助项目(GD25CYJ16)