基于区域站的昆明市雨季短时强降水特征及天气系统分型

Characteristics and synoptic classification of short-duration heavy precipitation during the rainy season in Kunming based on regional station data

摘要

短时强降水是昆明市雨季 (5—10 月) 主要的灾害性天气，深入研究其时空特征及天气系统分型，对提升本地强降水预报预警能力具有重要意义。基于 2018—2022 年昆明市 12 个国家级气象观测站 (以下简称国家站) 和 406 个区域气象观测站 (以下简称区域站) 逐小时降水资料，采用统计学与天气学诊断方法，结合主观天气分型，分析了昆明市雨季短时强降水的时空分布特征，并对区域性过程进行天气系统分型。结果表明：短时强降水空间分布呈“南多北少”的特征，主城区表现出频次最多、强度最强的“雨岛效应”。主汛期 (6—8 月) 短时强降水出现频次最为集中，其中，短时强降水峰值出现在 7 月，而极端短时强降水峰值在 6 月；日变化呈凌晨和傍晚双峰结构。影响昆明市区域性短时强降水的主要天气系统可分为 4 类：切变线型 (50.7%)、热带低值系统型 (20.8%)、两高辐合型 (17.4%) 和副热带高压外围型 (11.1%)。水汽来源和地形耦合的差异及抬升触发机制的不同，导致不同天气系统降水特征不同，其中地面辐合线（或锋面）配合 700 hPa 切变线是触发短时强降水的关键抬升触发机制，对预报具有指示意义。

Abstract

Short-duration heavy precipitation is a primary hazardous weather process during the rainy season in Kunming. Conducting an in-depth study of its spatiotemporal characteristics and synoptic systems is of great significance for enhancing local forecasting and warning capabilities for heavy precipitation. Based on hourly precipitation data from 12 national meteorological stations (referred to as national stations) and 406 regional meteorological stations (referred to as regional stations) in Kunming during May to October from 2018 to 2022, this study employed statistical and synoptic diagnostic methods, combined with subjective synoptic classification, to analyze the spatiotemporal distribution characteristics of short-duration heavy precipitation during the rainy season and performed circulation classification for regional processes. The results show that spatially, short-duration heavy precipitation exhibited a pattern of "more frequent in the south and less in the north" with the main urban area demonstrating a "rain island effect" characterized by the highest frequency and intensity. Temporally, its occurrence was most concentrated during the main flood season (June to August), with the peak of ordinary short-duration heavy precipitation in July, while the peak of extreme short-duration heavy precipitation was in June. The diurnal variation presents a bimodal structure, with primary peaks in the early morning and late afternoon. The main synoptic systems affecting regional short-duration heavy precipitation processes in Kunming can be classified into four types: shear line type (50.7%), tropical low-pressure system type (20.8%), two-high convergence type (17.4%), and subtropical high periphery type (11.1%). Differences in moisture source and topographic coupling, as well as the commonality of lifting trigger mechanisms, lead to differences in precipitation characteristics among different synoptic systems. The surface convergence line (or front) combined with the 700 hPa shear line is the key lifting trigger mechanism for short-duration heavy precipitation, providing valuable guidance for forecasting.

关键词

雨季 / 短时强降水 / 雨岛效应 / 天气系统 / 区域气象观测站

Key words

rainy season / short-duration heavy precipitation / synoptic systems / conceptual model / regional meteorological stations

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基金资助

云南省重点基金项目(202201AS070069)

中国气象局能力提升联合专项(22NLTSZ005)

国家自然科学基金面上项目(42375043)

中国气象局水文气象重点开放实验室开放研究课题(23SWQXZ009)

云南省重点研发计划-社会发展专项(202203AC100006)

云南省气象局科研项目(YZ202614)