台风“利奇马”(1909)活动期间不同强降水区域的水汽路径及源地贡献对比分析

Comparative analysis of the water vapor paths and sources for different heavy rainfall regions during Typhoon Lekima (1909)

摘要

水汽是台风暴雨发生的必要条件之一，探究水汽来源对认识台风暴雨过程具有重要意义。利用欧洲中期天气ERA5 再分析资料驱动混合单粒子拉格朗日综合轨迹模式 HYSPLIT (Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory model)，采用面源贡献定量估计方法，分析台风“利奇马” (1909) 活动期间浙江和山东降水大值区的环流形势、水汽路径和源地贡献的差异及其成因。结果表明：(1) 浙江和江苏南部降水区水汽主要由西南水汽通道和台风"罗莎"北侧的偏东气流共同输送；随着西南气流的减弱，山东降水区水汽主要由太平洋的水汽经台风北侧的偏东气流输送。(2) 浙江和江苏南部降水区水汽路径主要有 4 条，分别来自东太平洋、澳大利亚、西太平洋和印度洋，而山东降水区水汽路径有 3 条，分别来自东太平洋、印度洋和西太平洋，其中东太平洋路径占比升至 51.7%，该差异的主要原因是山东降水中西南气流减弱，使得来自印度洋和澳大利亚的轨迹减少，而两个台风北侧的偏东气流输送太平洋的水汽路径占比增加。(3) 浙江和江苏南部降水区主要水汽贡献源地是太平洋和澳大利亚，分别占 33.1% 和 15.3%，与这两个源地轨迹占比大且水汽转换率高密切相关；山东降水区水汽贡献主要来自太平洋 (73.8%)，这是由于来自此区域的轨迹占比高且这些气块吸收的水汽比高达 80.8%。因此，对于同一台风不同降水过程，其水汽路径和贡献率有所区别，这一研究结果可为进一步理解台风降水水汽来源和台风暴雨落区预测提供参考。

Abstract

As water vapor is essential for typhoon precipitation, exploring its origins is important for understanding the evolution of these precipitation events. This study uses Hybrid Single-Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory model (HYSPLIT) which is driven by the data from the fifth generation atmospheric reanalysis data of the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasting, and the areal source receptor attribution method. The differences and their causes of atmospheric circulations, water vapor paths and contribution of two centers of precipitation in Zhejiang and southern Jiangsu, as well as Shandong during Typhoon Lekima (1909) are analyzed. The results are as follows. (1) From the perspective of atmospheric circulation, water vapor of the precipitation in Zhejiang and southern Jiangsu is mainly transported by the southwesterly water vapor channel and the easterly airflow to the north of Typhoon Krosa. As the southwesterly airflow weakens, the water vapor for the precipitation in Shandong is primarily supplied by Pacific water vapor via the easterly airflow to the north of two typhoons. (2) There are four main moisture paths responsible for precipitation in Zhejiang and southern Jiangsu, respectively from the eastern Pacific Ocean, Australia, the western Pacific Ocean and the Indian Ocean, while there are three main moisture paths for precipitation in Shandong, respectively from the eastern Pacific Ocean, the Indian Ocean and the western Pacific Ocean, with the proportion of the eastern Pacific path increasing to 51.7%. The main reason for the difference of the water vapor path is the weakening of the southwesterly wind, which led to a reduction in trajectories from the Indian Ocean and Australia, while the easterly wind to the north of the two typhoons increased the proportion of Pacific transport pathways. (3) Regarding water vapor contribution, the primary source regions for Zhejiang and southern Jiangsu are the Pacific (33.1%) and Australia (15.3%), mainly due to the high trajectory frequency and high moisture conversion rates from these regions. The water vapor contribution from the Pacific Ocean is the highest for the precipitation in Shandong, at 73.8%, attributed to a high trajectory frequency and a high moisture uptake ratio of 80.8% among air parcels originating over the Pacific Ocean. Therefore, water vapor pathways and sources vary across different stages of the same typhoon. These findings can enhance the understanding of water vapor sources and provide valuable references for predicting precipitation locations during typhoon events.

关键词

水汽路径 / 水汽源地 / 利奇马 / HYSPLIT 模式

Key words

moisture paths / moisture sources / typhoon Lekima / the HYSPLIT model

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基金资助

国家自然科学基金气象联合基金项目(U2342202)

全国暴雨研究开放基金项目(BYKJ2024Z03)