两次登闽台风后部相似 LMCS 雨带降水差异对比分析

Comparative analysis of precipitation differences in the similar LMCS rainbands at the rear of two typhoons landing in Fujian

摘要

2023 年第 5 号台风“杜苏芮”和 2024 年第 3 号台风“格美”在福建省登陆后深入赣北，其后部均在福建沿海地区形成线状中尺度对流系统 (Linear Mesoscale Convective Systems，LMCS)，2 次 LMCS 雨带形态极其相似但产生的降水强度差异大。基于气象观测站、三维闪电、S 波段、双偏振和风廓线雷达以及 ERA5 再分析等数据，利用统计及诊断方法对这 2 次相似雨带上的降水强度、雨带组织形式、闪电活动、降水云微物理结构及环流形势和环境条件等差异进行对比分析，结果表明：(1) 2 次 LMCS 过程均具有累积雨量大、持续时间长、夜雨明显、雨强极值强、强降水回波后向传播及降水“列车效应”等特征，但台风“杜苏芮”降水更显著。(2) “杜苏芮” LMCS-1 雨带强雨强上空云闪活跃，强雷暴特征显著；“格美” LMCS-2 闪电稀少，表现弱雷暴特征。(3) 云微物理垂直结构特征显示，“杜苏芮”强雨强上空的强回波主体对流质心高于 0 ℃ 层，双偏振 HCL 产品显示 0 ℃ 层上下以固液混合粒子共同主导，为非暖云聚合碰并增长过程，该特征与大陆对流降水相似；“格美”强雨强上空的强回波主体对流质心低于 0 ℃ 层，以液相雨滴粒子为主导，为暖云微物理增长过程，与热带海洋对流降水特征相符。(4) “杜苏芮” LMCS-1 过程降水明显强于“格美” LMCS-2 的主要原因在于其大气垂直运动表现更强且持续时间更长，前者粒子浓度明显高于后者，导致雨强显著。过程双偏振参量 Z_H≥52 dBz、Z_DR>2.5 dB、K_DP>1.6 (°)∙km^-1 且持续时间长达 30 min 以上，可作为 100 mm∙h^-1 雨强预报的参考量。

Abstract

Typhoon Doksuri (2305) and Gaemi (2403) penetrated northern Jiangxi after landing in Fujian, with their trailing edges forming linear mesoscale convective systems (LMCS) along the Fujian coast. Although the two LMCS rainband shapes were extremely similar, their resulting precipitation intensities differed significantly. Basing on the meteorology stations data, three-dimensional lightning data, S-band, dual-polarization and wind profiler radar data, and ERA5 reanalysis data, the differences in precipitation intensity, rainband organization patterns, lightning activity, microphysical structures of precipitating clouds and situation background and environmental conditions on the two similar rainbands were comparative analyzed using statistical and diagnostic methods in this paper. The results are as follows. (1) Both LMCS cases are characterized by large accumulated precipitation, long duration, obvious heavy rainfall occurring nighttime, rainfall intensity extreme high, backward propagation of rainfall echoes and precipitation train effects. But heavy rainfall in LMCS of Typhoon Doksuri is more significant. (2) Over the strong rainfall intensity of the LMCS-1 rainbands, Typhoon Doksuri exhibits active cloud flashes with pronounced characteristics of severe thunderstorms, while Typhoon Gaemi LMCS-2 show sparse cloud flashes activity and displays features of weak thunderstorms. (3) The vertical structure characteristics of cloud microphysics show: In the heavy rainfall upper air of Typhoon Doksuri, the strong convective core of strong echo is above the 0 ℃ level. The dual-polarization HCL product shows that the solid-liquid mixture particles are the main dominant factor above and below the 0 ℃ level, which is a non-warm cloud aggregation collision and growth process, and characteristic is similar to the continental convective precipitation. For Typhoon Gaemi, the strong convective core of strong echo is below the 0 ℃ level, and liquid rain droplet particles are the main dominant factor, which is a warm cloud microphysical growth process, and this characteristic is consistent with the of tropical oceanic convective precipitation. (4) The key factor for the difference in the accumulated precipitation lies in the fact that the atmospheric vertical motion of Typhoon Doksuri LMCS-1 case is stronger and lasts longer than Typhoon Gaemi LMCS-2. Former has a significantly higher concentration of particles than latter, resulting in a significant increase in rainfall intensity. The dual-polarization parametersZ_H≥52 dBz, Z_DR>2.5 dB，K_DP>1.6 (°)∙km^-1 and a duration of more than 30 min can be used as a reference for 100 mm∙h^-1 rainfall intensity forecasts.

关键词

杜苏芮 / 格美 / 线状中尺度对流系统 / 雨强 / 云微物理结构

Key words

Doksuri / Gaemi / linear mesoscale convective systems / rainfall intensity / cloud microphysical structure

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基金资助

中国气象局复盘总结专项(FPZJ2025-061)

福建省科技厅面上项目(2024J011144)

南京气象科技创新研究院北极阁开放研究基金项目(BJG202401)

山东省自然科学青年基金项目(ZR2022QD089)