昆明市夏季夜间冰雹天气分型及其环境参数特征

Characteristics of environment parameters and weather type of nighttime hail weather in Kunming City from June to August

摘要

为提升昆明市夏季夜间 (20—08 时，北京时，下同) 冰雹的预报预警水平，基于 2010—2023 年 6—8 月昆明 C 波段天气雷达、冰雹灾情记录及 ERA5 再分析数据，分析了夜雹的时空分布与雹云移向特征，并采用 T 模态斜交主成分分析方法 (T-mode principal component analysis，PCT) 对 500 hPa 环流场进行客观分型并分析各天气型的环境参数特征。结果表明：(1) 2010—2023 年 6—8 月昆明共出现 73 个夜间降雹日，雹云移向以西风型为主 (占 39.4%)，其次为偏东风型 (占 31.6%)、正北风型 (占 13.2%)、静止型 (占 10.5%) 及正南风型 (占 5.3%)；(2) 夜雹日 20 时 500 hPa 位势高度场的最优分型结果为 6 类，其中孟加拉湾槽型 (占 30.1%)、印度低压型 (占 20.5%) 和孟加拉湾-中国南海双低压型 (占 21.9%) 为主要环流型；(3) 前两类表现为低层西风在滇中切变辐合特征，偏西、偏北来向的雹云较多，大气层结高能，7 月对流有效位能 (CAPE) 中位数分别为 754.7 J·kg⁻¹ 和 940.8 J·kg⁻¹，中低层气温直减率可至 15 ℃ 以上，不稳定条件较好，造成的灾情较轻。孟加拉湾-中国南海双低压型背景下多东北来向的雹云，700 hPa 东风和西风辐合促进湿空气饱和凝结 (比湿≥12.0 g·kg⁻¹)，局地对流活动增强，特征高度层降低，降雹集中在 7—8 月且致灾较重。该研究可为昆明夜间冰雹的潜势预报与灾害预警提供参考。

Abstract

To improve the forecasting and warning level of summer nighttime (20–08 BT, the same as after) hail in Kunming, this study analyzes the spatiotemporal distribution of nighttime hail and the movement directions of hail clouds based on Kunming C-band weather radar, hail disaster records, and ERA5 reanalysis data from July to August during 2010–2023. The T-mode principal component analysis (PCT) method is applied to objectively classify the circulation patterns at 500 hPa and analyze the associated environmental parameters. The results are as follows. (1) There were 73 nighttime hail days from June to August during 2010–2023 in Kunming. Hail cloud movements were primarily westerly (39.4%), followed by easterly (31.6%), northerly (13.2%), stationary (10.5%), and southerly (5.3%). (2) The optimal classification of the 500 hPa geopotential height at 20:00 BT on nighttime hail days resulted in six types. The primary circulation types are the Bay of Bengal trough pattern (30.1%), the Indian low pattern (20.5%), and the Bay of Bengal-South China Sea double low pattern (21.9%). The first two types exhibit shear and convergence of low-level westerlies over central Yunnan, with hail clouds mostly coming from the west and north. These patterns are characterized by sufficient atmospheric energy, with median of available potential energy (CAPE) in July reaching 754.7 J·kg⁻¹ and 940.8 J·kg⁻¹, respectively. The temperature lapse rate of the middle and lower layers can exceed 15℃, indicating favorable unstable conditions, but resulting in relatively slight hail disasters. (3) Under the Bay of Bengal–South China Sea double low pattern, hail clouds tend to originate from the northeast. The convergence of easterlies and westerlies at 700 hPa promotes saturation and condensation of moist air (specific humidity≥12.0 g·kg⁻¹), enhancing local convective activity and lowering the height of key layers. Hail events under this pattern mainly occur from July to August and are associated with more severe disasters. This findings provides a reference for hail potential forecasting and disaster warning in Kunming.

关键词

夜间降雹 / 环流分型 / T 模态斜交主成分分析 / 环境参数

Key words

nighttime hail / circulation classification / T-mode principal component analysis / environmental parameter

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基金资助

云南省气象局基层台站气象科技创新与能力提升计划项目(STIAP202401)