台站迁移对湖北省气温序列非均一性影响的评估和订正

Assessing and correcting the impact of station relocation on temperature inhomogeneity in Hubei Province

摘要

长时间序列的气温资料是气候变化研究的基础，台站迁移是影响气温序列均一性的主要原因之一，快速城市化背景下气象观测台站 (以下简称台站) 迁移不断增多，因此定量评估台站迁移对气温序列非均一性影响并进行订正对提高资料应用质量至关重要。基于湖北省 78 个国家级气象观测站 1960-2024 年气温观测数据和历史沿革信息，综合利用标准正态均一性检验、多元线性回归、惩罚最大 T 检验方法及跳变量分析，将台站迁移对气温序列非均一性影响的程度划分为无影响、一般影响和较大影响三个等级，从年代际变化、海拔高度变化及水平位移等维度，定量评估台站迁移对湖北省气温序列非均一性的影响，并对武汉、五峰等代表性台站开展了气温均一性订正研究。结果表明：(1) 台站迁移对气温序列非均一性影响呈年代际增大特征，1990 年代后平均气温非均一性比例显著增加 (1990 年代后为 1990 年代前的 1.9 倍)、影响程度明显增大，“较大影响”比例从 11% 升至 63%，最低气温对台站迁移的敏感性更为明显。(2) 台站迁移的海拔高度变化对气温序列的非均一性影响大于水平位移，海拔高度变幅增大对最高气温序列非均一性影响更为显著。(3) 经分位数匹配法订正后，迁移台站与参考站气温区域一致性显著提升，气温年际趋势与中国区域地表气温趋势更为接近。

Abstract

Under rapid urbanization, the increasing frequency of meteorological station relocation necessitates quantitative evaluation of temperature series inhomogeneity. This study systematically analyzes 137 relocation records from 78 national meteorological observation stations in Hubei Province from 1960 to 2024. An integrated methodology is used, combining the Standard Normal Homogeneity Test (SNHT), Multiple Linear Regression (MLR), Penalized Maximum T Test (PMT), and jump-variable analysis. The results are as follows. (1) The intensity of inhomogeneity caused by relocations exhibits decadal amplification, with post-1990 events showing a 1.9-fold increase in the proportion of inhomogeneity compared to earlier periods. The occurrence of large-impact cases rose from 11% to 63%, with minimum temperature demonstrating greater sensitivity to relocations. (2) Altitude differences exerted stronger influences on temperature series than horizontal displacements, with larger elevation variations increasingly affecting the maximum temperature series. (3) After adjustment using the Quantile Mapping (QM) method, the regional consistency between relocated stations (Wuhan and Wufeng) and neighboring reference stations significantly improved, and interannual trends aligned more closely with temperature variation patterns of China.

关键词

台站迁移 / 气温序列 / 均一性检验 / 定量评估 / 偏差订正

Key words

station relocation / temperature series / homogeneity test / quantitative assessment / bias correction

参考文献

[1] 陈哲,李庆祥,任芝花,等. 2014. 3 种方法对中国探空温度资料均一性检验对比分析[J].气象与环境学报,30(6):141-146.

[2] Chen Z, Li Q X, Ren Z H, et al. 2014. Comparative analysis of three homogeneity testing methods for Chinese radiosonde temperature data [J].Journal of Meteorology and Environment,30(6):141-146 (in Chinese). doi:10.3969/j.issn.1673−503X.2014.06.019

[3] 次旺扎西,旦增伦珠,次央,等. 2025.青藏高原地区不同海拔高度气温的变化特征[J].高原山地气象研究,45(1):32-38.

[4] Ci W Z X, Dan Z L Z, Ci Y, et al. 2025. Variation characteristics of temperature at different altitudes in the Tibetan Plateau region [J].Plateau and Mountain Meteorology Research,45(1):32-38 (in Chinese). doi:10.3969/j.issn.1674−2184.2025.01.005

[5] 崔妍,徐文慧,李庆祥,等. 2019.东北地区月气温序列的均一性检验和订正[J].气象,45(2):240-250.

[6] Cui Y, Xu W H, Li Q X, et al. 2019. Homogeneity testing and adjustment of monthly temperature series in northeast China [J].Meteorological Monthly,45(2):240-250 (in Chinese). doi:10.7519/j.issn.1000−0526.2019.02.009

[7] 韩海涛,王雅萍,张瑾. 2021.中国西北地区台站迁移对气候资料均一性影响的研究进展[J].高原气象,40(2):448-454.

[8] Han H T, Wang Y P, Zhang J. 2021. Research progress on the effect of station relocation on climate data homogeneity in Northwest China [J].Plateau Meteorology,40(2):448-454 (in Chinese). doi:10.7522/j.issn.1000−0534.2020.00056

[9] 何冬燕,田红,邓伟涛. 2012.多种方法在年平均风速均一性检验中的效果对比[J].大气科学学报,35(3):342-349.

[10] He D Y, Tian H, Deng W T. 2012. Comparative analysis of the effects of different methods in homogeneity test on annual mean wind speed [J].Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences,35(3):342-349 (in Chinese). doi:10.13878/j.cnki.dqkxxb.2012.03.009

[11] 李庆祥, Menne M J, Williams C N. 2005.利用多模式对中国气温序列中不连续点的检测[J].气候与环境研究,10(4):736-742.

[12] Li Q X, Menne M J, Williams C N. 2005. Detection of discontinuities in Chinese temperature series using multiple methods [J].Climatic and Environmental Research,10(4):736-742 (in Chinese). doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006−9585.2005.04.04

[13] 刘佳,王盘兴,李丽平,等. 2012.多种均一性检验方法比较研究[J].气象,38(9):1121-1128.

[14] Liu J, Wang P X, Li L P, et al. 2012. Comparative study of multiple homogeneity testing methods [J].Meteorological Monthly,38(9):1121-1128 (in Chinese). doi:10.7519/j.issn.1000−0526.2012.09.011

[15] 刘小宁. 2000.我国 40 年年平均风速的均一性检验[J].应用气象学报,11(1):27-34.

[16] Liu X N. 2000. Homogeneity testing of 40-year annual average wind speed in China [J].Journal of Applied Meteorological Science,11(1):27-34 (in Chinese). doi:10.3969/j.issn.1001−7313.2000.01.004

[17] 司鹏,李庆祥,陈亮,等. 2022.北京 1841 年以来均一化最高和最低气温日值序列的构建[J].气象学报,80(1):136-152.

[18] Si P, Li Q X, Chen L, et al. 2022. Construction of homogenized daily maximum and minimum temperature series in Beijing since 1841 [J].Acta Meteorologica Sinica,80(1):136-152 (in Chinese). doi:10.11676/qxxb2022.008

[19] 王凯,周月华,高媛. 2015.湖北省冬季平均气温序列订正及其气候评价应用[J].气象科技,43(4):697-703.

[20] Wang K, Zhou Y H, Gao Y. 2015. Adjustment of winter average temperature series in Hubei Province and its application in climate assessment [J].Meteorological Science and Technology,43(4):697-703 (in Chinese). doi:10.3969/j.issn.1671−6345.2015.04.023

[21] 王星宇,严婧,刘莹,等. 2025.防辐射罩区域自动气象站气温观测偏差分析及其订正方法[J].暴雨灾害,44(1):115-125.

[22] Wang X Y, Yan J, Liu Y, et al. 2025. Analysis of temperature observation bias and correction method for radiation shield in regional automatic weather stations [J].Torrential Rain and Disasters,44(1):115-125 (in Chinese). doi:10.12406/byzh.2024−035

[23] 魏娜,孙娴,姜创业,等. 2012.台站迁移对陕西省气温资料均一性的影响及其偏差订正[J].气象,38(12):1532-1537.

[24] Wei N, Sun X, Jiang C Y, et al. 2012. Impact of station relocation on homogeneity of temperature data in Shaanxi Province and its bias adjustment [J].Meteorological Monthly,38(12):1532-1537 (in Chinese). doi:10.7519/j.issn.1000−0526.2012.12.011

[25] 伍红雨,翟志宏,张羽. 2019. 1961-2018 年粤港澳大湾区气候变化分析[J].暴雨灾害,38(4):10-17.

[26] Wu H Y, Zhai Z H, Zhang Y. 2019. Analysis of climate change in the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area during 1961-2018 [J].Torrential Rain and Disasters,38(4):10-17 (in Chinese). doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004−9045.2019.04.002

[27] 严中伟,李建平,周天军,等. 2014.气候序列的均一化定量评估气候变化的基础[J].中国科学: 地球科学,44(10):2101-2111.

[28] Yan Z W, Li J P, Zhou T J, et al. 2014. Quantitative assessment of climate series homogenization as the basis for climate change studies [J].Science China: Earth Sciences,44(10):2101-2111 (in Chinese). doi:10.1360/zd−2014−44−10−2101

[29] 曾琦,任国玉. 2020.湖北省主要山系高影响天气指标空间特征分析与建模[J].暴雨灾害,39(2):87-95.

[30] Zeng Q, Ren G Y. 2020. Spatial characteristic analysis and modeling of high-impact weather indices in major mountain ranges of Hubei Province [J].Torrential Rain and Disasters,39(2):87-95 (in Chinese). doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004−9045.2020.02.001

[31] 张高健,高山,惠英,等. 2024.西安观测站长序列气温资料缺测记录插补和非均一性检验[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,18(1):149-155.

[32] Zhang G J, Gao S, Hui Y, et al. 2024. Interpolation of missing data and inhomogeneity testing for long-term temperature series at Xi’an meteorological station [J].Desert and Oasis Meteorology,18(1):149-155 (in Chinese). doi:10.12057/j.issn.1002−0799.2024.01.019

[33] 张高杰,曹丽娟,李亚丽. 2013.均一性对西北五省气温变化特征影响分析[J].农业灾害研究,3(2-3):27-32.

[34] Zhang G J, Cao L J, Li Y L. 2013. Impact of homogeneity on temperature variation characteristics in five Northwestern Provinces [J].Journal of Agricultural Catastrophology,3(2-3):27-32 (in Chinese). doi:10.3969/j.issn.2095−3305.2013.2−3.007

[35] 张天峰,王劲松,王有恒,等. 2014.台站迁移对甘肃省气温记录均一性影响的检验[J].成都信息工程大学学报,29(1):1-10.

[36] Zhang T F, Wang J S, Wang Y H, et al. 2014. Impact of station relocation on homogeneity of temperature records in Gansu Province [J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,29(1):1-10 (in Chinese). doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2014.01.001

[37] 张瑶,曹丽娟,朱亚妮. 2023.黑龙江气温资料均一性订正及长期趋势分析[J].气候与环境研究,28(5):461-470.

[38] Zhang Y, Cao L J, Zhu Y N. 2023. Homogenization adjustment and long-term trend analysis of temperature data in Heilongjiang [J].Climatic and Environmental Research,28(5):461-470 (in Chinese). doi:10.3878/j.issn.1006−9585.2023.22031

[39] 赵美艳,李庆祥,任芝花,等. 2018.重庆地区气温序列均一性检验及订正[J].气象与环境学报,34(6):148-155.

[40] Zhao M Y, Li Q X, Ren Z H, et al. 2018. Homogeneity testing and adjustment of temperature series in Chongqing [J].Journal of Meteorology and Environment,34(6):148-155 (in Chinese). doi:10.3969/j.issn.1673−503X.2018.06.018

[41] 周建平,孙照渤,倪东鸿,等. 2013.中国气象台站迁移对年平均气温均一性的影响[J].大气科学学报,36(2):139-146.

[42] Zhou J P, Sun Z B, Ni D H, et al. 2013. Impact of meteorological station relocation on homogeneity of annual mean temperature in China [J].Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences,36(2):139-146 (in Chinese). doi:10.13878/j.cnki.dqkxxb.2013.02.002

[43] Costa A C, Soares A. 2008. Homogenization of climate data: Review and new perspectives using geostatistics [J].Mathematical Geosciences,41(3):291-305. doi:10.1007/s11004−008−9203−3

[44] Ducré-Robitaille J F, Vincent L A, Boulet G. 2003. Comparison of techniques for detection of discontinuities in temperature series [J].International Journal of Climatology,23(9):1087-1101. doi:10.1002/joc.924

[45] Reeves J, Chen J, Wang X L, et al. 2007. A review and comparison of changepoint detection techniques for climate data [J].Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology,46(6):900-915. doi:10.1175/JAM2493.1

[46] Sun W B, Li Q X, Huang B Y, et al. 2021. The assessment of global surface temperature change from 1850s: The C-LSAT2.0 ensemble and the CMST-interim datasets [J].Advances in Atmospheric Sciences,38(5):875-888. doi:10.1007/s00376−021−0360−3

[47] Shen L, Zhang Y, Chen Z, et al. 2018. Homogeneity test and correction of daily temperature and precipitation data (1978-2015) in North China [J].Advances in Meteorology,2018:1-17. doi:10.1155/2018/2752730

[48] Vincent L A. 1998. A technique for the identification of inhomogeneities in Canadian temperature series [J].Journal of Climate,11(5):1094-1104. doi:10.1175/1520−0442(1998)011<1094:ATFTIO>2.0.CO;2

[49] Wang X L, Chen H, Wu Y, et al. 2010. New techniques for the detection and adjustment of shifts in daily precipitation data series [J].Journal of Applied Meteorology and Climatology,49(12):2416-2436. doi:10.1175/2010JAMC2376.1

基金资助

湖北省自然科学基金联合项目(2022CFD018)

中国气象局气象软件重点开放实验室(KLMS-OG-202510)