一次超级单体风暴长时间维持的双偏振特征和机制分析

Analysis of dual-polarization characteristics and mechanisms of a supercell storm with long-term maintenance

摘要

2025 年 3 月 3 日 00:00 (北京时，下同) 到 07:00，江南北部一个超级单体风暴生命史达 7 h，突出特征是不断发生合并和分裂，厘清这一特征与超级单体风暴长时间维持的关系，有利于提高对长生命超级单体风暴的认识。基于地面和高空观测、双偏振雷达、风廓线雷达等资料，使用 ROSE2.1 和 PyDDA 软件对雷达基数据处理后，结合云桥量化分析其双偏振特征和维持机制，并给出此类风暴天气的预报关注重点。结果表明：(1) 此次超级单体风暴后侧存在短线状风暴并不断向前伸出云桥与超级单体风暴合并，表现为 0 ℃ 层以上差分反射率因子 (Z_DR) 柱和差分传播相移率 (K_DP) 柱水平宽度加大，且 K_DP 柱高度更高。(2) 超级单体风暴合并的同时伴随自上而下迅速分裂，分裂后南部单体承接中气旋，且中气旋半径显著减小，强烈拉伸作用使上升运动突增。(3) 超级单体风暴后侧小单体沿移向的切向合并显著加强了其南侧的上升运动。超级单体风暴南侧分裂出的单体快速发展，替代原超级单体风暴，如此迭代的若干次分裂、合并过程，是其维持长生命史的主要机制。(4) 预报业务中，在强垂直风切变环境下，超级单体风暴后侧有雷暴向前合并，出现云桥，伴随超级单体风暴自身分裂，尤其需关注超级单体风暴长时间维持的可能性。

Abstract

From 00:00 BT to 07:00 BT on March 3, 2025, a supercell in northern Jiangnan persisted for 7 hours, with recurrent merging and splitting as its prominent feature. Elucidating how these behaviors contribute to its prolonged duration can improve the understanding of long-lived supercell storms. Based on surface and upper-air observation data, dual-polarization radar data, and wind profiler radar data, the radar base data were processed using ROSE 2.1 and PyDDA software. The dual-polarization characteristics and maintenance mechanisms of the storm are analyzed quantitatively in combination with cloud bridges. Finally, the key points for forecasting such storm weather are presented. The results are as follows. (1) A short linear storm existed at the rear of the supercell and continuously extended cloud bridges forward to merge with the supercell. This merging process was characterized by an increase in the horizontal width of the differential reflectivity factor (ZDR) column and specific differential phase (KDP) column above the 0 °C level, along with a higher height of the KDP column. (2) Concurrently with the merger, the supercell split rapidly from top to bottom. After splitting, the southern cell inherited the mesocyclone, and the radius of the mesocyclone decreased significantly; the strong stretching effect led to a sudden increase in upward motion. (3) The tangential merger of small cells at the rear of the supercell (along the storm’s moving direction) significantly enhanced the upward motion on the supercell’s southern side. The cells that split from the southern side of the supercell developed rapidly and replaced the original supercell. Such a repeated iterative process of multiple splits and mergers is the main mechanism underlying the supercell’s long lifespan. (4) In operational forecasting, under an environment with strong vertical wind shear, if thunderstorms at the rear of a supercell merge forward with the supercell (accompanied by cloud bridge formation) and the supercell itself splits, special attention should be paid to the possibility of the supercell maintaining for a long duration.

关键词

超级单体风暴 / 中气旋 / 维持机制 / 分裂 / 合并 / 双偏振雷达

Key words

supercell storm / mesocyclone / maintenance mechanism / split / merger / dual-polarization radar

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基金资助

江西省气象局创新团队项目(JXCX202304)

中国气象局面上项目(CXFZ2025J027)

江西省重点研发计划项目(20243BBH81005)

江西省气象局重点项目(JX2021Z01, JX2021Z09)

江西省气象局人才培养面上专项(JX2024RCM03)