庐山地区暖季对流活动特征及机制分析

Characteristics and mechanism of warm-season convective activity over Lushan area, China

摘要

为揭示庐山地区暖季对流的活动特征，提高该地区对流天气精细化预报预警能力，利用2018—2022 年4—9 月 南昌多普勒天气雷达资料，结合国家气象站地面观测、中国气象局陆面数据同化系统(CLDAS) 湖面气温网格化产品和 ERA5 再分析资料，采用基于巴恩斯滤波与交叉相关跟踪雷达回波(Barnes filter and Tracking Radar Echoes by Crosscorrelation， BTREC) 算法分析庐山地区对流时空演变、移动特征，并分析了庐山-鄱阳湖耦合作用对对流演变的影响。结 果表明：庐山及东侧对流的频率和强度显著高于同纬度邻近区域， 5—7 月频率较高(7 月峰值)，7—9 月强度较强(8 月 峰值)，7 月兼具高频率与较强强度；日变化上12—16 时(北京时，下同) 为高发时段且强度最强，夜间频次和强度均较 弱。超过80% 的对流呈西南—东北向移动，4—6 月移动较快、风向集中，7—9 月速度减慢、风向角离散度增大。庐山- 鄱阳湖存在动力与热力耦合效应：低层湖风吹向山脉形成低空辐合带，增强局地对流触发；昼夜湖陆热力差异调控湖陆 风-山谷风辐合过程，使得庐山地区对流具有午后高发、湖山交界集中的时空分布特征。据此， 12—16 时是庐山强对流 预警关键时段，西南—东北向为对流影响范围预判核心依据。

Abstract

To reveal the characteristic of convective activities in the Lushan area during the warm season and improve the refined forecasting and early warning capabilities for convective weather in this region, this study analyzes the spatiotemporal evolution, movement characteristics of convection during the warm season (April–September) in the Lushan area, as well as the impact of the coupling effect on convective evolution between Lushan Mountain and Poyang Lake. The Nanchang Doppler weather radar data from April to September during 2018–2022, combined with national meteorological station surface observation data, gridded lake surface air temperature products from the China Meteorological Administration Land Data Assimilation System (CLDAS) and the ERA5 reanalysis data were used, and a method based on the Barnes filter and Tracking Radar Echoes by Cross-correlation (BTREC) algorithm was adopted. The results showed that the frequency and intensity of convection over Lushan and its eastern side were significantly higher than those in adjacent regions at the same latitude. Seasonally, convection frequency was relatively high from May to July (peaking in July), while intensity was stronger from July to September (peaking in August), with July featuring both high frequency and considerable i ntensity. Diurnally, the high-incidence period was 12:00–16:00 (Beijing Time, the same hereinafter), during which convection intensity was optimal, whereas both frequency and intensity were weak at night. More than 80% of convection moved in a southwest–northeast direction, which moved faster with concentrated wind directions from April to June, and slower with increased wind direction dispersion from July to September. The coupling of Lushan Mountain and Poyang Lake affects convective activities through dynamic and thermal processes. Low-level lake wind invading the mountain forms low-level convergence zones to trigger and intensify local convection. The diurnal thermal contrast between the lake and land modulates lake-land and valley-mountain wind convergence, dominating the spatiotemporal distribution of convection with peak afternoon occurrence and concentrated activity over the lake–mountain junction. Based on these findings, 12:00–16:00 in the afternoon was identified as a key period for severe convection early warning in the Lushan area, and the southwest–northeast movement direction provided a core basis for predicting the impact range of convection.

关键词

暖季对流 / 时空演变特征 / 多普勒天气雷达 / 湖陆风

Key words

warm-season convection / temporal and spatial evolution characteristics / doppler weather radar / lake-land breeze

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基金资助

江西省气象局“庐山云宏微物理结构特征及催化技术研究创新团队”项目(JXCX202307)

江西省气象科技项目庐山云雾专项(JX2023LSYWZX06)