安徽省ADTD闪电定位系统监测数据质量评估

Quality assessment of monitoring data from the Anhui ADTD lightning location system

摘要

强对流天气往往伴随雷电出现，闪电定位 (Advanced Direction and Time Difference，ADTD) 系统可监测闪电发生位置，提供雷电预警信息。为评估安徽省 ADTD 闪电监测数据有效性和精确性，提升监测数据的适用性，基于 2014-2023 年安徽省 ADTD 闪电定位系统地闪回击数据，选取参考点和雷电案例，采用网格法、统计与一致性分析等方法，从定位精度和雷电参数 (地闪极性、雷电流幅值) 方面对地闪回击监测数据质量进行评估。结果表明：(1) 在参考点周边，地闪回击高值区与实际位置误差 571~1 442 m，高于系统标称误差 (500 m)，山区地形导致定位误差显著增大，各参考点周边地闪回击次数等值线分布呈现“0~1 km 范围内密度偏高，1~2 km 范围内逐步趋近区域均值，2 km 外显著偏低”的分布规律，且等值线形态与山体走向基本吻合。(2) 基于 10 起典型雷灾案例统计显示，平原地区平均定位误差为 428 m，低于该系统 500 m 的理论定位误差上限，山区受地形遮挡影响，平均误差达 1 070 m，属于复杂地形下的正常观测偏差。(3) 安徽省地闪回击的极性比例、闪电活动的月际、日变化统计特征与本地强对流气候演变规律匹配良好；雷电流幅值累积概率分布与 IEEE 标准模型的拟合一致性达 99.2%，与标准模型匹配程度极高，安徽 ADTD 系统在地闪极性识别、时间一致性方面表现出较高的可靠性，但在 10~50 kA 区间存在系统性高估倾向。该研究反映了不同地形下闪电数据的误差特征，可为安徽雷电预警、雷灾鉴定、防雷设计提供校正依据，也可为国内多地形闪电定位系统质量评估提供参考方法。

Abstract

Severe convective weather is frequently accompanied by abundant thunder and lightning. Lightning location (Advanced Direction and Time Difference，ADTD) systems are capable of capturing lightning strike positions and supporting thunderstorm early warning services. To evaluate the effectiveness and accuracy, improve the application of lightning monitoring data from the ADTD lightning location system across Anhui Province, this study evaluates cloud-to-ground (CG) return stroke observations collected by the Anhui ADTD network during 2014–2023. Reference observation points and typical lightning disaster cases are selected, and grid analysis, statistical analysis and consistency test methods are comprehensively utilized to evaluate the monitoring data quality of CG return strokes from two aspects: positioning accuracy and lightning parameters (CG flash polarity and lightning current amplitude). The results are as follows. (1) Around the reference points, the positional error between high-value zones of CG return strokes and actual lightning locations ranges from 571 m to 1 442 m, exceeding the nominal systematic error of 500 m. Positioning error increases in mountainous terrains. The contour distribution of CG return stroke counts around each reference point follows a consistent pattern: flash density is overestimated within the 0~1 km buffer, gradually converges to the regional average in the 1~2 km zone, and is markedly underestimated beyond 2 km; furthermore, the contour shapes basically coincide with mountain strike trends. (2) Statistics based on 10 representative lightning disaster cases reveal that the average positioning error over plain areas is 428 m, lower than the theoretical upper limit of systematic positioning error (500 m). Terrain shielding increases the average positioning error to 1 070 m, which remains within the normal observational uncertainty under complex terrain conditions. (3) Polarity ratio of cloud-to-ground lightning return strokes, the monthly and diurnal statistical characteristics of lightning activity are well consistent with the climatological characteristics of severe convection in Anhui Province. The cumulative probability distribution of lightning current amplitudes achieves excellent agreement with the IEEE standard model, with a fitting consistency of 99.2%, indicating high reliability of the ADTD system in CG polarity identification and temporal consistency. However, it exhibits a systematic overestimation bias for lightning current values within the 10~50 kA range. This study quantifies the error characteristics of lightning data under diverse terrain conditions, which can provide a scientific basis for improving lightning early warning, lightning disaster identification and lightning protection design in Anhui Province. The proposed evaluation also offers a reference method for quality evaluation of lightning location systems in regions with complex terrain nationwide.

关键词

ADTD / 地闪回击 / 定位误差 / 雷电流幅值累积概率

Key words

ADTD / cloud-to-ground lightning return stroke / positioning error / cumulative probability of lightning current amplitude

参考文献

[1] 包坤,赖晋科,李庆申,等. 2020.基于一次机场雷击事件评估 ADTD 地闪定位性能[J].气象科技,48(4):459-464.

[2] Bao K, Lai J K, Li Q S, et al. 2020. Evaluation of ADTD cloud-to-ground flash location performance based on an airport lightning event [J].Meteorological Science and Technology,48(4):459-464 (in Chinese). doi:10.19517/j.1671−6345.20190211

[3] 蔡然,罗欣,高彦,等. 2019.闪电回击过程中高层建筑物顶部感应电流电荷特征分析[J].气象科技进展,9(3):190-194.

[4] Cai R, Luo X, Gao Y, et al. 2019. Induced current and charge at the top of high buildings during lightning return stroke [J].Advances in Meteorological Science and Technology,9(3):190-194 (in Chinese). doi:10.3969/j.issn.2095−1973.2019.03.028

[5] 陈佳雯,王磊,王超,等. 2021.连绵起伏山体对雷电电磁信号的影响研究[J].电瓷避雷器,(3):57-66.

[6] Chen J W, Wang L, Wang C, et al. 2021. Influences of the mountainous terrain on lightning electromagnetic signal [J].Insulators and Surge Arresters,(3):57-66 (in Chinese). doi:10.16188/j.isa.1003−8337.2021.03.009

[7] 程向阳,陶寅,邱阳阳. 2018.安徽省雷电易发区域划分[J].气象科技,46(4):785-791.

[8] Cheng X Y, Tao Y, Qiu Y Y. 2018. Study of lightning prone region division in Anhui [J].Meteorological Science and Technology,46(4):785-791 (in Chinese). doi:10.19517/i.1671−6345.20170637

[9] 崔逊,高金阁,樊荣. 2016. WWLLN 与江苏省 ADTD 闪电定位系统数据的对比分析[J].大气科学学报,39(2):270-279.

[10] Cui X, Gao J G, Fan R. 2016. Comparison and analysis of lightning characteristics in Jiangsu Province based on data from the Worldwide Lightning Location Network and the Advanced Time of Arrival and Direction System lightning location network [J].Transactions of Atmospheric Sciences,39(2):270-279 (in Chinese). doi:10.13878/j.cnki.dqkxxb.20130310002

[11] 冯民学,周宇,虞敏,等. 2015. 2013 年江苏省 ADTD 闪电定位系统资料的评估分析[J].科学技术与工程,15(7):79-84.

[12] Feng M X, Zhou Y, Yu M, et al. 2015. Evaluation of Jiangsu ADTD lightning location system data in 2013 [J].Science Technology and Engineering,15(7):79-84 (in Chinese). doi:10.3969/j.issn.1671−1815.2015.07.015

[13] 虢韬,沈平,杨恒,等. 2018.云闪过后云中电荷结构变化对触发上行闪电影响的数值模拟[J].电瓷避雷器,(2):77-82.

[14] Guo T, Shen P, Yang H, et al. 2018. Numerical simulation of effects of the thundercloud charge structure diversification on the upward lightning triggering after the cloud flash [J].Insulators and Surge Arresters,(2):77-82 (in Chinese). doi:10.16188/j.isa.1003−8337.2018.02.016

[15] 侯安校,周方聪,邓发斌,等. 2022.近 10 年海南省雷电灾情及其对闪电定位性能的评估[J].气象研究与应用,43(2):80-86.

[16] Hou A X, Zhou F C, Deng F B, et al. 2022. Lightning disaster in Hainan in recent 10 years and its evaluation on lightning location performance [J].Journal of Meteorological Research and Application,43(2):80-86 (in Chinese). doi:10.19849/j.cnki.CN45−1356/P.2022.2.14

[17] 鞠晓雨,王凯,朱浩. 2022. 2011-2021 年安徽省闪电时空分布特征分析[J].沙漠与绿洲气象,16(5):110-117.

[18] Ju X Y, Wang K, Zhu H. 2022. Temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of lightningin Anhui from 2011 to 2021 [J].Desert and Oasis Meteorology,16(5):110-117 (in Chinese). doi:10.12057/j.issn.1002−0799.2022.05.015

[19] 李亚飞,祝传栋,刘邕,等. 2025.京津城际铁路沿线雷电活动特征及危险性评估[J].暴雨灾害,44(3):332-339.

[20] Li Y F, Zhu C D, Liu Y, et al. 2025. Assesment of dangerousness and characteristics on lightning along the Beijing-Tianjin intercity railway [J].Torrential Rain and Disasters,44(3):332-339 (in Chinese). doi:10.12406/byzh.2024−016

[21] 刘平英,徐伟新,李思,等. 2024.云南省两套闪电定位系统地闪回击参数对比及探测性能分析[J].热带气象学报,40(4):607-622.

[22] Liu P Y, Xu W X, Li S, et al. 2024. Comparison of cloud-to-ground lightning parameters and detection performance of two lightning location systems in Yunnan Province [J].Journal of Tropical Meteorology,40(4):607-622 (in Chinese). doi:10.16032/i.issn.1004−4965.2024.054

[23] 刘岩,李征,程向阳,等. 2015. LD-II 和 ADTD 型地闪定位资料的对比分析[J].南京信息工程大学学报 (自然科学版),7(4):380-384.

[24] Liu Y, Li Z, Cheng X Y, et al. 2015. Comparative analysis of LD-Ⅱ and ADTD lightning location data [J].Journal of Nanjing University of Information Science and Technology(Natural Science),7(4):380-384 (in Chinese). doi:10.13878/j.cnki.jnuist.2015.04.011

[25] 刘泽,郭凤霞,郑栋, 等. 2020.一次暖云强降水主导的对流单体闪电活动特征[J].应用气象学报,31(2):185-196.

[26] Liu Z, Guo F X, Zheng D, et al. 2020. Lightning activities in a convection cell dominated by heavy warm cloud precipitation [J].Journal of Applied Meteorological Science,31(2):185-196 (in Chinese). doi:10.11898/1001−7313.20200206

[27] 田德宝,冯瑜骅,张雪慧,等. 2020. 2012-2017 年全国雷电灾害事故统计分析[J].科技通报,36(5):42-47.

[28] Tian D B, Feng Y H, Zhang X H, et al. 2020. Statistics analysis of lightning disaster accidents in China from 2012 to 2017 [J].Bulletin of Science and Technology,36(5):42-47 (in Chinese). doi:10.13774/j.cnki.kjtb.2020.05.007

[29] 王娟,谌芸. 2015. 2009-2012 年中国闪电分布特征分析[J].气象,41(2):160-170.

[30] Wang J, Chen Y. 2015. Analysis of the 2009-2012 lightning distribution characteristics in China [J].Meteorological Monthly,41(2):160-170 (in Chinese). doi:10.7519/j.issn.1000−0526.2015.02.004

[31] 王凯,周丽雅,鞠晓雨,等. 2021. 2011-2019 年中国长江三角洲区域闪电时空分布特征[J].气象与环境学报,37(4):100-106.

[32] Wang K, Zhou L Y, Ju X Y, et al. 2021. Temporal and spatial distribution characteristics of lightning in the Yangtze River Deltaof China from 2011 to 2019 [J].Journal of Meteorology and Environment,37(4):100-106 (in Chinese). doi:10.3969/j.issn.1673−503X.2021.04.014

[33] 汪开斌. 2024.基于一次雷电灾害的安徽 ADTD 定位精度分析[J].陕西气象,2024(5):77-82.

[34] Wang K B. 2024. Location accuracy analysis of Anhui ADTD based on a lightning disaster [J].Journal of Shanxi Meteorology,2024(5):77-82 (in Chinese). doi:10.3969/j.issn.1006−4354.2024.05.012

[35] 王学良,成勤,王清龙,等. 2021.基于 LLS 的多回击地闪及其雷电流幅值分布特征[J].热带气象学报,37(3): 309-319.

[36] Wang X L, Cheng Q, Wang Q L, et al. 2021. The distribution characteristics of multiple strokes of cloud-to-ground lightning and their lightning current magnitude based on LLS [J].Journal of Tropical Meteorology,37(3):309-319 (in Chinese). doi:10.16032/j.issn.1004−4965.2021.029

[37] 王志超,庞文静,梁丽,等. 2018. ADTD 闪电定位网在北京地区定位效率的自评估[J].气象科技,46(4):638−643,664.

[38] Wang Z C, Pang W J, Liang L, et al. 2018. Self-evaluation on detection efficiency of ADTD lightning location network in Beijing [J].Meteorological Science and Technology,46(4):638−643,664 (in Chinese). doi:10.19517/j.1671−6345.20170406

[39] 杨敢,陈佳雯,戴炳哲,等. 2022.乌鲁木齐地区山体地形对地闪回击定位精度的影响[J].电瓷避雷器,(3):42-48.

[40] Yang G, Chen J W, Dai B Z, et al. 2022. Effect of mountain terrain on lightning return strokes location accuracy in Urumgi [J].Insulators and Surge Arresters,(3):42-48 (in Chinese). doi:10.16188/j.isa.1003−8337.2022.03.006

[41] 张长秀. 2017.广州高建筑物对其周围地闪活动特征影响的研究[D]. 北京:中国气象科学研究院:41-43.

[42] Zhang C X. 2017. Study on the influence of high-rise buildings on the characteristics of cloud-to-ground lightning activities around themin Guangzhou [D]. Beijing:Chinese Academy of Meteorological Sciences:41-43 (in Chinese)

[43] 张坚,袁松,姚叶青. 2015.江淮地区雷暴的闪电定位系统与人工观测的一致性分析[J].暴雨灾害,34(3):286-292.

[44] Zhang J, Yuan S, Yao Y Q. 2015. Analysis on consistency of thunderstorm data from lightning detection network and manual observation in the Jianghuai region [J].Torrential Rain and Disasters,34(3):286-292 (in Chinese). doi:10.3969/j.issn.1004−9045.2015.03.013

[45] 张科杰,谢超,郑琦玉. 2022.湖北 ADTD 闪电定位系统监测数据质量分析[J].气象科技,50(2):179-188.

[46] Zhang K J, Xie C, Zheng Q Y. 2022. Analysis of monitoring data quality of Hubei ADTD lightning location system [J].Meteorological Scienceand Technology,50(2):179-188 (in Chinese). doi:10.19517/j.1671−6345.20210209

[47] 赵晓凤,杨雷,李谦,等. 2023.基于雷电定位系统和实测的多回击地闪雷电流参数及模型分析[J].广东电力,36(8):97-103.

[48] Zhao X F, Yang L, Li Q, et al. 2023. Analysis of lightning current parameters and model based on Lightning Location System and measured multi-return stroke of cloud-to-ground lightning [J].Guangdong Electric Power,36(8):97-103 (in Chinese). doi:10.3969/j.issn.1007−290X.2023.08.011

[49] 郑佳玥,唐晓文,刘高平,等. 2024.安徽地区暖季降水回波日变化及环境场特征研究[J].成都信息工程大学学报,39(2):200-207.

[50] Zheng J Y, Tang X W, Liu G P, et al. 2024. Diurnal variation and environmental characteristics of precipitation echo in warm season in Anhui [J].Journal of Chengdu University of Information Technology,39(2):200-207 (in Chinese). doi:10.16836/j.cnki.jcuit.2024.02.011

[51] 中国气象局.2017.雷电灾害风险区划技术指南[S].北京:气象出版社:2-3.

[52] China Meteorological Administration. 2017. Technical guidelines for lightning disaster risk zoning [S]. Beijing:China Meteorological Press: 2-3 (in Chinese)

[53] 中华人民共和国国家质量监督检验检疫总局,中国国家标准化管理委员会.2015.雷电防护 第 2 部分:风险管理[S].北京:中国标准出版社:27-29. General Administration of Quality Supervision, Inspection and Quarantine of China. 2015.

[54] Protection against lightning-Part 2: Risk management [S]. Beijing: Standards Press of China: 27-29 (in Chinese)

[55] 周威,青泉,魏庆,等. 2026.闪电活动在四川盆地极端短时强降水中的先兆性特征[J].高原山地气象研究,46(1):69-75.

[56] Zhou W, Qing Q, Wei Q, et al. 2026. Precursory characteristics of lightning activity in extreme short-duration heavy rainfall over Sichuan Basin [J].Plateau and Mountain Meteorology Research,46(1):69-75 (in Chinese). doi:10.3969/j.issn.1674−2184.2026.01.008

[57] 朱浩,程向阳,田红,等. 2024.基于 GIS 的安徽省雷电致灾危险性评估与区划[J].暴雨灾害,43(6):733-740.

[58] Zhu H, Cheng X Y, Tian H, et al. 2024. Assessment and zoning of lightning disaster-causing hazards in Anhui Province based on GIS [J].Torrential Rain and Disasters,43(6):733-740 (in Chinese). doi:10.12406/byzh.2023−186

[59] 朱海燕,刘海兵,张新兴. 2018.基于雷电监测数据的雷电流幅值累积概率分布特征[J].气象与减灾研究,41(3):219-225.

[60] Zhu H Y, Liu H B, Zhang X X. 2018. Study on the cumulative probability of lightning current amplitudes based on the lightning monitoring data [J].Meteorology and Disaster Reduction Research,41(3):219-225 (in Chinese). doi:10.12013/qxyjzyj2018−031

[61] Baba Y, Rakov V A. 2007. Lightning strikes to tall objects: Currents inferred from far electromagnetic fields versus directly measured currents [J].Geophysical Research Letters,34(20):L19810. doi:10.1029/2007GL030870

[62] Becerra M, Cooray V, Hartono Z A. 2007. Identification of lightning vulnerability points on complex grounded structures [J].Journalof Electrostatics,65(9):562-570. doi:10.1016/j.elstat.2006.12.003

[63] Diendorfer G. 2010. LLS performance validation using lightning to towers[C]//Proceedings of the 21st International Lightning Detection Conference. Orlando:Vaisala:1-15

[64] Kohlmann H, Schulz W, Rachidi F. 2021. Evaluation of site errors in LLS magnetic direction finding caused by large hills using the 3D-FDTD technique [J].Earth and Space Science,8(10):e2021EA001914. doi:10.1029/2021EA001914

[65] Zhu Y, Lyu W, Cramer J A, et al. 2020. Analysis of location errors of the U. S. National lightning detection network using lightning strikes to towers [J].Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres,125(D8):e2020JD032530. doi:10.1029/2020JD032530

基金资助

安徽省气象局自主创新发展专项(AHQXZC202401)

马鞍山市科技计划项目(QX-2024-01)