武汉X波段双偏振相控阵雷达定量降水估测产品质量评估

Quality evaluation of quantitative precipitation estimation products from Wuhan’s X-band dual-polarization phased-array radar

摘要

为提升武汉地区强降水监测与预警能力，以地面观测降水数据为基准，选取 2025 年 5-8 月武汉 8 次典型强降水过程，从降水总体识别能力、雨量等级敏感性、降水类型差异、时空分布特征、S 与 X 波段雷达探测一致性五个方面，对武汉 6 部 X 波段双偏振相控阵雷达 (X-band Dual-polarization Phased Array Radar，XPAR) 组网的定量降水估测 (Quantitative Precipitation Estimation，QPE) (以下简称 XPAR-QPE) 产品质量进行评估，并探讨误差特征及其成因。结果表明：XPAR-QPE 产品能较好识别地面降水，总体相关系数、平均偏差、相对平均偏差、均方根误差分别为 0.93、−0.24%、−6.0%、2.88 mm。其中在小雨和中雨条件下降水识别准确率和估测量值可信度较高，随降水强度增加误差增大，在大雨及暴雨阶段估测误差较大且存在系统性低估。层状云降水误差相对较小，对流云降水和混合型降水误差相对较大，暴雨强度条件下上述表现更为明显。XPAR-QPE 产品与实测降水的空间分布和时序变化的趋势一致，能有效反映降水过程的发生与演变，但降水估测性能表现出空间差异性。XPAR-QPE 在刻画局地强降水细节方面相较于 S 波段雷达具有更高的空间分辨能力。该研究结果可为 XPAR-QPE 产品在武汉地区气象预报业务应用中提供参考依据。

Abstract

To enhance the monitoring and early warning capabilities and provide a scientific basis for an optimized quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) algorithm and operational applicationfor heavy precipitation in the Wuhan region, this study evaluates the QPE product from a network of six X-band dual-polarization phased array radars (XPARs) in Wuhan, using rain gauge observations as ground truth. The assessment focuses on eight typical heavy-rainfall events from May to August 2025 and examines five key aspects, including overall precipitation detection capability, sensitivity to rainfall intensity, differences across precipitation types, spatiotemporal distribution characteristics, and consistency between S-band and X-band radar observations. Results show that the QPE product effectively identifies surface precipitation, with an overall correlation coefficient, mean bias, relative mean bias, and root-mean-square error of 0.93, −0.24%, −6.0%, and 2.88 mm, respectively. The QPE product exhibits high accuracy and reliability for light-to-moderate rain, but performance degrades with increasing rain intensity, resulting in substantial errors and a systematic low bias for heavy precipitation events. For stratiform precipitation, the errors are relatively small, but large errors occur for convective and mixed types with more significant errors during rain storm. While the QPE product agrees with rain gauge observations in capturing the spatiotemporal evolution, its quantitative estimation performance exhibits spatial variability. The phased-array radar QPE provides finer spatial detail compared to the S-band radar in capturing the structure of localized heavy precipitation. This study demonstrates that the XPAR-network QPE product in Wuhan presents robust performance in depicting precipitation spatial patterns and tracking its temporal evolution, and exhibits significant application value in weather forecasting. However, it remains subject to systematic biases and spatial heterogeneities under varying rainfall intensities and in topographically blocked regions. This study provides an important basis for the application value of X-band phased array radar QPE products in meteorological forecasting operations.

关键词

X 波段 / 相控阵雷达 / 定量降水估测 / 质量评估

Key words

X-band / phased-array radar / quantitative precipitation estimation (QPE) / quality evaluation

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基金资助

全国暴雨研究开放基金重点项目(BYKJ2024Z04，BYKJ2025Z11)

武汉市气象科技联合项目(2023020201010575，2023020201010580，2025021101030375)

湖北省自然科学基金气象创新发展联合基金项目(2023AFD107，2024AFD205，2024AFD207)

武汉市气象局强对流短临预报关键技术研究创新团队项目(WHQX2025ZD01)