造成贵州黔西“5.4”游船倾覆事件的极端大风观测分析

Observation of an extreme wind disaster associated with the "5.4" cruise ship capsizing event in Qianxi, Guizhou Province

摘要

2025 年 5 月 4 日下午 16：30—16：40 (北京时，下同)，贵州省黔西市新仁乡化屋村化屋码头附近发生客船倾覆事件 (以下简称"5.4"船覆事件)，造成重大人员伤亡。为揭示事件中极端大风的特征及可能原因，利用区域气象站分钟加密观测数据、视频监控信息、贵阳多普勒雷达、高空地面常规观测以及 ERA5 再分析等资料，对此次天气开展了强度、持续时间、成因等多视角分析。结果表明：5 月 4 日下午至前半夜贵州出现强对流天气，其中黔西市新仁乡化屋村观测到 44.7 m·s⁻¹ (16:32—16:33) 的极端大风。化屋村在 16:28—16:45 之间出现了两轮大风，极端大风出现在第一轮，以偏西风为主；视频监控捕捉到强风暴在化屋村产生下击暴流的过程，出现了风暴底外涌、风雨交加、河面风浪升高、能见度骤降等现象；雷达回波显示了该强风暴形成超级单体，具有钩状回波等特征，且 16:29—16:34 该超级单体在化屋村造成下击暴流爆发并增强，导致极端大风；另外还推测当地典型的河谷地形进一步造成大风加速。上述分析结果可以为更好地开展强对流天气临近预警服务提供参考依据，同时对春季至初夏气温异常偏高的环境条件下一旦出现强对流天气作出风雹及降水极端性预报具有指示意义。

Abstract

A passenger ship capsized near Huawu Wharf in Huawu Village Qianxi City Guizhou Province on the afternoon of May 4 2025 from 16:30 to 16:40 local time. This study is to reveal the characteristics and possible causes of extreme wind disasters during the accident，using regional station minute data, video surveillance data, Guiyang Doppler radar observations, and other related materials. The results show that：from the afternoon of May 4 to the early evening, Guizhou experienced severe convective weather, with an extreme wind speed of 44.7 m·s⁻¹ (16:32－16:33 BT) recorded in Huawu Village, Xinren Township, Qianxi City. There were two rounds of strong winds in Huawu Village from 16:28 to 16:45, with extreme winds occurring in the first round. Video surveillance captured the downburst process of a strong storm in Huawu Village, including phenomena such as storm surges, winds and rain, increased winds and waves on the river surface, and sudden drops in visibility. The radar echo confirmed a supercell with hook shaped echoes, and the supercell caused a downburst outbreak and enhancement in Huawu Village during 16:29－16:34 BT, leading to extreme winds. Additionally, it is speculated that the typical river valley terrain in the area further accelerated the strong winds. This article reveals the characteristics of the strong storms and associated downbursts and extreme winds based on multiple observational data, providing scientific support for better short-term warning. The study also indicates that, we need pay attention to forecasts of extreme winds, hail and precipitation in environments with abnormally high temperatures from spring to early summer.

关键词

极端大风 / 超级单体 / 下击暴流 / 视频 / 雷达偏振参量

Key words

Extreme winds / Downburst / Supercell / Video / Radar polarization parameter

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基金资助

贵州省气象局创新团队项目(黔气科合 TD[2024]01 号)

贵州省气象局省市联合基金项目(黔气科合 SS-KF[2024]14 号)