黄河流域生态系统服务价值时空演变：因子修正、驱动力与交互效应

Spatiotemporal Evolution of Ecosystem Service Value in the Yellow River Basin of China: Factor Revision, Driving Forces, and Interactive Effects

摘要

黄河流域生态保护和高质量发展是国家重大战略，科学评估其生态系统服务价值（ecosystem service value，ESV）及其驱动机制是实现区域生态保护与可持续发展的关键前提。现有研究多依赖静态或局部参数修正的当量因子，难以捕捉ESV随生态系统结构与社会经济条件动态演化的响应特征；且对ESV空间分异的多因子交互驱动机制缺乏定量解析。为此，本文在因子本地化校准基础上，建立动态修正的ESV当量因子框架，对2000～2020年黄河流域ESV进行多期动态核算；结合地理探测器模型，识别ESV空间分异的主导驱动因子及其交互效应。结果表明：①2000～2020年黄河流域ESV总体呈“上升－下降－回升”的波动增长趋势（增幅13.3%），上、中游变化趋势与全流域基本一致，下游ESV持续下降且降幅呈扩大趋势，表现出“上中游改善、下游退化”的区域分异特征。②ESV空间分布呈“西高东低、南高北低”的格局。热点区（高值聚类）显著收缩，冷点区（低值聚类）有所扩大，且呈“中下游扩张、上游收缩”趋势。③土地利用类型是ESV空间分异的主要驱动因子，任意双因子交互作用的解释力均高于单因子，表现为双因子增强效应，凸显自然环境因子与社会经济因素的协同驱动机制。④土地利用类型与其他因子的交互作用最突出，但呈减弱趋势，反映了黄河流域ESV空间分异正从“单一强约束驱动”向“多目标综合主导”转变。本研究通过当量因子动态修正，阐明了多因子交互驱动下的ESV空间分异规律，揭示了黄河流域ESV“格局稳定-阶段分异-机制转型”的演化过程，可为流域国土空间精准管控、生态安全格局优化及生态保护-与高质量发展协同路径设计提供量化依据与决策参考。

Abstract

The ecological conservation and high-quality development of the Yellow River Basin (YRB) is a major national strategy. Scientifically assessing its ecosystem service value (ESV) and driving mechanisms is a key prerequisite for achieving regional ecological protection and sustainable development. Existing studies predominantly rely on static or locally adjusted equivalent factors, making it difficult to capture the dynamic evolution of ESV in response to changes in ecosystem structure and socio-economic conditions. Moreover, there is a lack of quantitative analysis on the interactive driving mechanisms behind the spatial differentiation of ESV. To address this, this study establishes a dynamically adjusted ESV equivalent factor framework based on localized parameter calibration, conducting multi-period dynamic accounting of ESV in the YRB from 2000 to 2020. Combined with the geographical detector model, it identifies the dominant driving factors of ESV spatial differentiation and their interactive effects. The results show: ① From 2000 to 2020, the overall ESV of the YRB exhibited a fluctuating growth trend (“rise-decline-recovery”) with an increase of 13.3%. The trends in the upper and middle reaches were generally consistent with the whole basin, while the lower reaches experienced continuous decline with an expanding rate, reflecting a regional differentiation pattern of “improvement in upper/middle reaches and degradation in lower reaches”. ② The spatial distribution of ESV showed a pattern of “higher in the west and south, lower in the east and north.” Hotspots (high-value clusters) significantly contracted, while cold spots (low-value clusters) expanded, with a trend of “expansion in middle/lower reaches and contraction in upper reaches”. ③ Land use type was the primary driver of ESV spatial differentiation. The explanatory power of any two-factor interaction exceeded that of a single factor, demonstrating a two-factor enhancement effect and highlighting the synergistic driving mechanism of natural and socio-economic factors. ④ The interaction between land use and other factors was most prominent but showed a weakening trend, indicating that the spatial differentiation of ESV in the YRB is transitioning from “single strong-constraint driving” to “multi-objective comprehensive dominance”. By dynamically adjusting equivalent factors, this study clarifies the spatial differentiation patterns of ESV under multi-factor interactions and reveals the evolutionary process of ESV in the YRB as “stable pattern-stage differentiation-mechanism transition”. It provides a quantitative basis and decision-making reference for precise spatial governance, optimization of ecological security patterns, and the design of coordinated pathways for ecological conservation and high-quality development in the YRB.

关键词

生态系统服务价值 / 动态当量因子 / 时空分异 / 交互效应 / 黄河流域

Key words

ecosystem service value / dynamic equivalence factors / spatiotemporal differentiation / interactive effects / Yellow River Basin

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基金资助

土地利用变化对西辽河流域农牧系统氮素流动的影响及环境效应研究(41671525)

中国东部新生代陆相湖盆和深部碳释放对气候环境影响评价的数值模型(2023YFF0804304-4)