国际物流供应链中断风险的识别与应对策略研究

Research on Identification and Response Strategies for International Logistics Supply Chain Interruption Risks

摘要

在全球化背景下，国际物流供应链频遭地缘冲突、自然灾害、网络安全事件及协同失灵等多重风险冲击。本研究通过文献 分析、案例研究与专家访谈识别风险源，结合建模、仿真与实证评估，揭示其多样性、复杂性与不确定性；理论构建涵盖 政策地缘、气候灾害、技术网络与运营协同四维的风险识别与应对体系；实践提出韧性网络重构、多元冗余库存设计及数 字化协同响应三大策略，支撑企业风险评估与预案优化，助力政府监管与基建决策。局限在于模型存在数据误差，对AI、 区块链等新兴技术风险覆盖不足，且策略落地受制于企业资金、技术与管理能力。

Abstract

In the context of globalization, international logistics supply chains are frequently impacted by multiple risks such as geopolitical conflicts, natural disasters, cybersecurity incidents, and collaborative failures. This study identifies risk sources through literature analysis, case studies, and expert interviews, and combines modeling, simulation, and empirical evaluation to reveal their diversity, complexity, and uncertainty; Theoretical construction of a four-dimensional risk identification and response system covering policy geopolitics, climate disasters, technological networks, and operational synergy; Practice proposes three major strategies: resilient network reconstruction, diversified redundant inventory design, and digital collaborative response, to support enterprise risk assessment and plan optimization, and assist government regulation and infrastructure decision-making. The limitation lies in the existence of data errors in the model, insufficient coverage of risks in emerging technologies such as AI and blockchain, and the implementation of strategies being constrained by the company’s funding, technology, and management capabilities.

关键词

国际物流 / 供应链 / 中断风险 / 策略

Key words

International logistics / Supply chain / Interruption risk / Strategy

参考文献

[1] 刘佳惠. 国际物流对供应链韧性的影响研究[D]. 新疆农业大学, 2024.DOI:10.27431/d.cnki.gxnyu.2024.001349.

[2] 璟旖. 国际贸易供应链韧性评估与风险传导研究[D]. 天津商业大学, 2024.DOI:10.27362/d.cnki.gtsxy.2024.000342.

[3] 全国智能运输系统标准化技术委员会( SAC/TC 268), 全国物流信息管理标准化技术委员会(SAC/TC 267).国际物流供应链系统调度信息交换要求:GB/T 46529-2025[S]. 中国标准出版社, 2025.