盾构机穿越运营地铁隧道的关键风险因素研究

Research on the Key Risk Factors of Shield Machine Crossing the Subway Tunnel

摘要

随着城市轨道交通建设的快速发展，盾构穿越运营地铁隧道工程日益增多，其风险因素复杂且相互关联。本文以上海轨道交通13号线东延工程下穿2号线为例，运用DEMATEL-ISM集成模型对盾构穿越运营地铁隧道的关键风险因素及相互关系进 行系统分析。根据工程实际情况以及专家调研得出风险因素并将其分为地质环境、施工技术、设备管理、监测预警四类。 本文运用DEMATEL方法分析风险因素之间的因果关系及影响程度，发现土压力控制偏差、推进速度不当、盾构机械故障 是原因型因素，既有结构影响、监测数据偏差是结果型因素。

Abstract

With the rapid development of urban rail transit construction, shield tunneling operations through existing metro tunnels have become increasingly common, presenting complex and interconnected risk factors. Taking the Shanghai Metro Line 13 East Extension Project’s underpassing of Line 2 as a case study, this paper employs the DEMATEL-ISM integrated model to systematically analyze key risk factors and their interrelationships in shield tunneling operations. Based on engineering practices and expert surveys, risk factors were categorized into four types: geological environment, construction technology, equipment management, and monitoring and early warning. The DEMATEL method was applied to examine causal relationships and impact levels among these factors, revealing that soil pressure control deviations, improper advance speed, and shield mechanical failures constitute causal factors, while existing structure impacts and monitoring data deviations represent outcome factors.

关键词

盾构穿越 / 运营地铁隧道 / 风险因素 / DEMATEL-ISM模型

Key words

shield tunneling / operation of metro tunnel / risk factors / DEMATEL-ISM model

参考文献

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