基于投资绩效评估的自动驾驶技术路线选择与管理决策研究

Research on Automatic Driving Technology Route Selection and Management Decision-making Based on Investment Performance Evaluation

摘要

本文从管理科学与工程视角出发，构建自动驾驶技术投资绩效评估框架，综合运用层次分析法（AHP）与系统动力学，比较单车智能与车路协同两种技术路线的优劣势。研究发现：短期应优先发展单车智能，利用其技术成熟度高、商业化快的优势；长期应重点发展车路协同，其在系统效率、安全与环境效益上综合更优。研究填补了现有研究中技术应用与投资绩效评估脱节的空白，为自动驾驶技术路线选择、投资决策与项目管理提供了科学依据与管理启示。

Abstract

From the perspective of management science and engineering, this paper constructs an investment performance evaluation framework for autonomous driving technology, and comprehensively uses the analytic hierarchy process (AHP) and system dynamics to compare the advantages and disadvantages of the two technical routes of bicycle intelligence and vehicle infrastructure coordination. It is found that in the short term, bicycle intelligence should be given priority to develop, taking advantage of its high technology maturity and fast commercialization; in the long run, we should focus on the development of vehicle infrastructure coordination, which is better in system efficiency, safety and environmental benefits. The research fills the gap between technology application and investment performance evaluation in the existing research, and provides scientific basis and management enlightenment for the selection of automatic driving technology route, investment decision-making and project management.

关键词

投资绩效评估 / 管理科学与工程 / 技术路线选择 / 单车智能 / 车路协同 / 层次分析法

Key words

investment performance evaluation / management science and engineering / technology route selection / vehicle intelligence / vehicle-road coordination / Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP)

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