耦合经济理论（CET）：一个基于复杂系统的新分析范式

Coupled Economic Theory: A New Paradigm of Analysis Based on Complex Systems

摘要

主流经济学“计划 vs. 市场”的二元范式，在解释中国等后发大型经济体的系统性崛起时，遭遇了深刻的解释困境。本文提出“耦合经济理论”（Coupling Economic Theory, CET），以超越这一传统对立。CET的核心命题是：现代经济体的长期“适应性效率”，不取决于任何单一协调机制的纯粹性，而内生于“战略协调机制”与“市场协调机制”通过制度化界面实现的动态互补性耦合之中。本文系统构建了由三大支柱构成的分析框架：1）双重协调机制的耦合，阐明了国家与市场在功能上的互补性及通过“制度性界面”实现的互动模式；2）资源配置的“双通道模型”，揭示了战略引导下的长期能力构建与市场驱动下的短期效率优化之间的动态循环；3）动态适应性治理，提出了以“元治理能力”为核心的、能够保障耦合系统持续学习与韧性的治理架构。CET不仅为解释东亚发展奇迹、转型经济分化和数字时代治理挑战提供了统一框架，更标志着经济学研究重心从静态均衡分析向复杂系统协调范式的重要转向。

Abstract

The binary paradigm of mainstream economics, “planning vs. market,” encounters profound explanatory dilemmas when attempting to explain the systemic rise of late-developing large economies such as China. This paper proposes the “Coupling Economic Theory” (CET) to transcend this traditional opposition. The core proposition of CET is that the long-term “adaptive efficiency” of modern economies does not depend on the purity of any single coordination mechanism, but is endogenously embedded in the dynamic complementary coupling of “strategic coordination mechanisms” and “market coordination mechanisms” through institutional interfaces. The paper systematically constructs an analytical framework composed of three pillars: 1) The coupling of dual coordination mechanisms, elucidating the functional complementarity between the state and the market and the interactive model achieved through “institutional interfaces”; 2) The “dual-channel model” of resource allocation, revealing the dynamic cycle between long-term capacity building guided by strategy and short-term efficiency optimization driven by the market; 3) Dynamic adaptive governance, proposing a governance architecture centered on “meta-governance capacity” that ensures continuous learning and resilience in coupled systems. CET not only provides a unified framework for explaining the development miracle of East Asia, economic differentiation during transitions, and governance challenges in the digital era, but also marks a significant shift in the focus of economic research from static equilibrium analysis to the paradigm of complex system coordination.

关键词

耦合经济理论 / 战略协调 / 市场协调 / 制度耦合 / 元治理 / 适应性效率 / 复杂系统

Key words

coupling economic theory / strategic coordination / market coordination / institutional coupling / meta-governance / adaptive efficiency / complex system

参考文献

[1] Kornai, J. (1992). The Socialist System: The Political Economy of Communism. Princeton University Press.

[2] Walras, L. (1874). Éléments d’économie politique pure. L. Corbaz.

[3] Kuhn, T. S. (1962). The Structure of Scientific Revolutions. University of Chicago Press.

[4] Mazzucato, M. (2013). The Entrepreneurial State: Debunking Public vs. Private Sector Myths. Anthem Press.

[5] Jessop, B. (2002). The Future of the Capitalist State. Polity Press.

[6] Qian, Y., & Xu, C. (1993). Why China’s Economic Reforms Differ: The M-Form Hierarchy and Entry/Expansion of the Non-State Sector. Economics of Transition, 1(2), 135-170.

[7] Evans, P. B. (1995). Embedded Autonomy: States and Industrial Transformation. Princeton University Press.

[8] North, D. C. (2005). Understanding the Process of Economic Change. Princeton University Press.

[9] Aghion, P., Cai, J., Dewatripont, M., Du, L., Harrison, A., & Legros, P. (2015). Industrial Policy and Competition. American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 7(4), 1-32.

[10] Rodrik, D. (2004). Industrial Policy for the Twenty-First Century. CEPR Discussion Paper No. 4767.

[11] Ostrom, E. (1990). Governing the Commons: The Evolution of Institutions for Collective Action. Cambridge University Press.

[12] 周黎安. (2007). 中国地方官员的晋升锦标赛模式研究. 《 经济研究》, (7), 36-50.

[13] 张军. (2021). 《改变中国: 经济学家的改革记述》. 上海人民出版社.

[14] 林毅夫. (2012). 《 新结构经济学：反思经济发展与政策的理论框架》. 北京大学出版社.