失业保险基金支付能力预警模型及风险防控策略

Unemployment insurance fund payment capacity early warning model and risk prevention and control strategy

摘要

失业保险基金作为社会保障体系的重要组成部分，在稳定就业、缓解经济波动、保障失业人员基本生活方面发挥着至关重要的作用。随着我国经济结构转型与人口结构变化，失业保险基金的支付压力逐步上升，其可持续性面临严峻挑战。本文从基金收支结构出发，构建支付能力预警模型，综合运用因子分析法、Logit回归和系统动态模型等方法对失业保险基金运行状态进行评估，进而提出具有针对性的风险防控策略。研究发现，影响基金支付能力的核心变量包括缴费收入、失业率、平均工资增长率、参保人数结构变化等因素。

Abstract

As a vital component of China’s social security system, unemployment insurance funds play a pivotal role in stabilizing employment, mitigating economic fluctuations, and ensuring basic living standards for the unemployed. With ongoing economic restructuring and demographic shifts, these funds face mounting payment pressures and sustainability challenges. This study develops a payment capacity early-warning model through fund revenue-expenditure analysis, employing factor analysis, Logit regression, and system dynamics modeling to assess fund operations. Targeted risk prevention strategies are proposed based on findings indicating that key influencing factors include premium income, unemployment rates, average wage growth rates, and demographic changes in insured populations.

关键词

失业保险基金 / 支付能力 / 预警模型 / 风险防控 / 系统动态

Key words

unemployment insurance funds / payment capacity / early-warning model / risk prevention / system dynamics

参考文献

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