增值税留抵退税政策的经济效应与风险防控研究

Research on the Economic Effects and Risk Prevention of the VAT Credit Refund Policy

摘要

增值税留抵退税政策从阶段性纾困举措转向常态化制度安排，是减税降费政策体系的核心内容，对盘活企业现金流、激发市场主体活力、助力经济高质量发展具有重要意义。本文基于税收中性理论、财政政策传导理论与风险管理学理论，系统界定增值税留抵退税政策的内涵与实施逻辑，从宏观、中观、微观三个维度评估政策经济效应及传导机制，全景识别政策落地中的企业骗税、征管漏洞、财政承压等核心风险，剖析风险形成机理，构建“政策，征管，企业，财政”四位一体的协同防控体系。

Abstract

The VAT credit refund policy has shifted from a temporary relief measure to a normalized institutional arrangement. It is a core component of the tax reduction and fee reduction policy system and plays a significant role in activating corporate cash flow, stimulating market vitality, and promoting high-quality economic development. Based on tax neutrality theory, fiscal policy transmission theory, and risk management theory, this paper systematically defines the connotation and implementation logic of the VAT credit refund policy. It evaluates the policy’s economic effects and transmission mechanisms from macro, meso, and micro perspectives, comprehensively identifies core risks in policy implementation such as corporate tax evasion, loopholes in tax administration, and fiscal pressure, analyzes the mechanisms behind risk formation, and constructs a four-in-one collaborative prevention system involving “policy, tax administration, enterprises, and fiscal authorities.”

关键词

经济效应 / 风险防控 / 减税降费 / 财政可持续

Key words

Economic effects / Risk prevention / Tax and fee reduction / Fiscal sustainability

参考文献

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