西藏横向财政转移支付的就业乘数效应测度研究

Measurement of Employment Multiplier Effect of Xizang Horizontal Fiscal Transfer Payment

摘要

西藏作为边疆民族欠发达地区，其就业稳定与发展事关民生改善和国家边疆治理。中央对藏财政转移支付是缓解当地财力缺口、推进公共服务均等化的核心制度，但学界尚未从乘数视角对其就业带动效应形成系统性量化结论。2015—2023年，中央对藏转移支付从766亿元增至2048亿元，同期西藏城镇职工人数从28.46万人增至40.82万人。研究显示，西藏转移支付就业乘数存在结构分化，带动效能整体偏弱，受刚性支出占比高、专项资金分散等因素制约。本文从聚焦高乘数产业、优化转移支付结构、适配区域特征三方面提出建议，为完善相关制度提供参考。

Abstract

As an underdeveloped ethnic region on China’s borderlands, Tibet’s employment stability and development are crucial to both livelihood improvement and national border governance. Central fiscal transfer payments to Tibet form a core mechanism for addressing local fiscal gaps and advancing the equalization of public services. However, academia has yet to reach a systematic, quantitative conclusion regarding their employment-driven effects from a multiplier perspective. From 2015 to 2023, central transfer payments to Tibet surged from 76.6 billion yuan to 204.8 billion yuan. During the same period, the number of urban employees in Tibet climbed from 284,600 to 408,200. Our findings indicate that the employment multipliers of these transfer payments exhibit clear structural differentiation, with their overall employment-driving efficiency remaining relatively low. This phenomenon is constrained by such factors as the excessively high proportion of rigid expenditures and the fragmentation of special-purpose funds. Accordingly, this paper proposes targeted recommendations in three key areas: prioritizing industries with high employment multipliers, optimizing the structure of transfer payments, and tailoring policies to Tibet’s regional characteristics, thereby providing a reference for refining the relevant institutional framework.

关键词

西藏 / 横向财政转移支付 / 就业乘数

Key words

Xizang / horizontal fiscal transfer payment / employment multiplier

参考文献

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基金资助

西藏大学研究生高水平人才培养计划项目“西藏横向财政转移支付的就业乘数效应测度研究”(2025-GSP-S003)