供需协同与制度重构：中国房地产风险防范化解及高质量发展路径研究

Supply-demand Coordination and Institutional Restructuring: Research on Risk Prevention and Resolution and High-quality Development Path of China’s Real Estate

摘要

中国房地产市场供求关系发生深刻变革，房企债务风险显现，行业面临深度调整，探索风险防范化解与高质量发展路径具有重要现实意义。本文基于政策与市场分析，系统剖析房地产风险化解的多维困境，借鉴国际经验，结合“十五五”高质量发展目标，提出供需协同与制度重构的治理框架。研究表明，统筹短期风险缓释与长期模式转型，是实现市场企稳与高质量发展的关键。

Abstract

China’s real estate market is undergoing profound shifts in supply-demand dynamics, with debt risks emerging among property developers and the industry facing deep adjustments. Exploring pathways for risk prevention and mitigation, as well as high-quality development, holds significant practical importance. Based on policy and market analysis, this paper systematically examines the multidimensional challenges in resolving real estate risks. Drawing on international experience and aligning with the high-quality development goals of the 15th Five-Year Plan, it proposes a governance framework centered on supply-demand coordination and institutional restructuring. The study demonstrates that balancing short-term risk mitigation with long-term model transformation is key to achieving market stabilization and high-quality development.

关键词

房地产风险 / 债务化解 / 高质量发展 / 供需协同 / 制度重构

Key words

Real Estate Risk / Debt Resolution / High-Quality Development / Supply-Demand Coordination / Institutional Restructuring

参考文献

[1] 杜娟, 蔡真. 房地产市场风险：根源、影响及对策——兼论金融如何促进房地产转型[J]. 金融市场研究, 2022,(06): 46-56.

[2] 尹中立. 关于稳定房地产市场的几点建议[J]. 银行家, 2025,(02): 67-70.

[3] 尹中立. 征收房地产税的难点及对策[J]. 银行家, 2024,(08): 27-29.

[4] 蔡真. 房地产业重构要点与金融跟进策略[J]. 银行家, 2024,(10): 21-24.

[5] 尹中立, 张策. 西班牙是如何应对房地产危机的[J]. 中国房地产金融, 2025,(02): 54-63.

基金资助

重庆市社科规划项目“新形势下涉房企业的信用风险测度、传染及管控策略研究”(2022NDQN34)

博士后出站留（来）渝资助项目“数字经济背景下多元化企业集团信用风险测度与传染机理研究”、重庆市教委科学技术研究项目“成渝地区双城经济圈重要产业链供应链安全风险的评估预警与防范策略研究”(KJQN202300831)

重庆市教委人文社会科学研究项目“成渝地区双城经济圈先进制造业‘链主’企业的安全预警与韧性提升研究”(24SKGH158)