抽样估计和假设检验在粮食产量抽样调查中的应用

Application of Sampling Estimation and Hypothesis Testing in the Sample Survey of Grain Production

摘要

本文围绕玉米地产量调查，阐述等距抽样及假设检验的应用。采用无关标志排队、半距起点等距抽样，抽取样本推算地块亩均及总产量区间。修正假设检验中原假设与备择假设颠倒、拒绝域判断错误的问题，经双侧Z检验，|Z|=1.78＜1.96，不拒绝原假设，表明抽样测产与实际产量无显著差异。综上，该3米长行等距抽样测产方法误差可控、结果可靠，可推广应用

Abstract

This study investigates the application of equal-distance sampling and hypothesis testing in corn yield estimation. Using the queueing method with independent markers and half-distance starting point sampling, we calculated the average yield per mu and total yield range of the plots. The paper addresses issues of inverted null and alternative hypotheses and incorrect rejection domain judgment in hypothesis testing. The two-tailed Z-test results (|Z|=1.78<1.96) indicate no significant difference between the sampled yield and actual yield. In conclusion, the 3-meter-long-row equal-distance sampling method demonstrates controllable error and reliable results, making it suitable for widespread application.

关键词

等距抽样 / 抽样推断 / 玉米测产 / 假设检验

Key words

equidistant sampling / sampling inference / maize yield estimation / hypothesis testing

参考文献

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[3] 蔡鹏伦 ， 关于粮食大县粮食播种面积和产量抽样调查方法的研究——以浙江省××市为例， 现代经济信息， 2015（12）, 353