市场电价波动下预算调整策略研究

Research on Budget Adjustment Strategy of Dongfang Power Plant under Market Electricity Price Fluctuation

摘要

为破解发电企业在电力市场化改革背景下，由电价高频波动、静态预算编制、调整滞后造成的收益不稳、成本管控失衡等问题，本文以某发电企业4×350MW超临界机组作为工程参照实例，开展预算调整策略相关研究。取“电价预测-成本联动-动态闭环”的路径，归集电力市场交易数据、生产运营数据、煤炭采购数据，搭建“3级预算调整模型”，实施实时电价监测、成本弹性分析、多场景预算推演等环节，实现预算和市场电价的精准对应。实施该策略后，企业预算偏差率从12.8%落到5.3%，市场化交易收益占比提3.48%，把煤炭采购成本占比调到76%，大幅提升电价波动时的经营稳定性。本文提出的市场电价波动下预算调整策略可为同类企业提供参考。

Abstract

To address revenue instability and cost control imbalances caused by frequent electricity price fluctuations, static budgeting, and delayed adjustments in power generation enterprises under market-oriented reforms, this study conducts research on budget adjustment strategies using a 4×350MW supercritical unit as a reference case. Adopting the “price forecasting-cost linkage-dynamic closed-loop” approach, the study integrates electricity market transaction data, production operation data, and coal procurement data to establish a “three-tier budget adjustment model.” Real-time electricity price monitoring, cost elasticity analysis, and multi-scenario budget simulations are implemented to achieve precise alignment between budget and market prices. After implementing this strategy, the company reduced its budget deviation rate from 12.8% to 5.3%, increased market-based transaction revenue proportion by 3.48%, and adjusted coal procurement cost proportion to 76%, significantly enhancing operational stability during price fluctuations. The proposed budget adjustment strategy under market price volatility provides a reference for similar enterprises.

关键词

电价波动 / 火电企业 / 预算调整 / 动态闭环

Key words

electricity price fluctuation / thermal power enterprises / budget adjustment / dynamic closed loop

参考文献

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