旅游业关键因子分析与发展预测

Key Factor Analysis and Development Forecast of Tourism Industry

摘要

随着人们物质和文化生活水平的提高，旅游业成为国民经济的一个快速增长点。然而区域内部生态、经济的发展状况参差不齐，这给旅游业的发展和研究带来了诸多挑战。本文运用熵权法构建了四个维度七个核心指标的综合评价体系，指标权重展现出现阶段应着重加强文旅组织建设，重点培育高级景区。为进一步预测旅游业的未来发展趋势，采用Markov预测模型分析，结果表明旅游业的发展整体水平较好，但周期较长。给出对策如下，低水平发展地区因地制宜开展帮扶政策，中水平地区加强引导，高水平地区则重在巩固发展成果。

Abstract

With the rising material and cultural living standards of the population, the tourism industry has emerged as a rapidly growing sector within the national economy. However, the ecological and economic development levels across different regions remain uneven, presenting numerous challenges to both the development and study of the tourism industry. Utilizing the entropy weight method, this paper constructs a comprehensive evaluation system comprising four dimensions and seven core indicators. The resulting indicator weights suggest that, at the current stage, priority should be placed on strengthening the organizational infrastructure of the cultural and tourism sectors, with a particular focus on cultivating high-caliber scenic areas. To further forecast future development trends within the tourism industry, a Markov prediction model was employed for analysis, the results indicate that, while the overall level of tourism development is robust, its developmental cycles tend to be relatively long. Accordingly, the following countermeasures are proposed, regions with lower development levels should implement targeted support policies tailored to local conditions, regions at intermediate levels should prioritize enhanced guidance, and regions at advanced levels should focus on consolidating their existing developmental achievements.

关键词

旅游业 / 熵权法 / Markov预测

Key words

tourism industry / entropy weight method / Markov prediction

参考文献

[1] Miccini R , Ciappei C , Liberatore G . To regulate or not to regulate: The destination management dilemma in handling the intensity of tourism[J]. Tourism Management, 2026, 115 105399— 105399.

[2] Zhang Y , Hanna P , Vanclay F . The social and environmental impacts on local residents from tourist accommodation near protected areas[J]. Environmental Management, 2026, 76(3): 83— 83.

[3] 肖璐, 李桥兴, 戴光全 等 . 贵州高A级景区“资源—情感—偏好”空间错位的演变及影响因素研究——基于大语言模型的深度学习[J/OL]. 旅游科学, 2026： 1-20. (网络首发)

[4] 储德平, 谢芳, 阙小乙 . 跨地方性视角下乡村旅游地治理共同体的生成过程与机制——以陕西省袁家村为例[J/OL]. 地理研究, 2026: 1-18. (网络首发)

[5] 张翱, 孙久文 . 旅游业与区域经济发展：影响机制及理论启示[J]. 经济与管理评论, 2025, 41(03): 18-29.